Bonzo The Idiot Monkey's Mock Draft: Geno Smith To Jacksonville

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Apr 25, 2013



Longtime readers of the Cold, Hard Football Facts know our feelings (if we had them) about mock drafts: they're not worth the data bits they're written on.

Sure, they can be a fun exercise, for those of you who actually like to exercise. But mock drafts are also wildly inaccurate, as we've shown over the years.

The genius of the national draft gurus, the Mike Mayocks and Mel Kipers, is that they know so much about each individual draft prospect. We do admire their knowledge.

But they have no idea what's going to happen in the draft. At best, the draft experts get an average of about 6 or 7 picks right in the first round, and almost all of those in the top half of the first round. After that those mock drafts are almost 100 percent incorrect from pick No. 17 to pick No. 256.

Like we said, mock drafts are not worth the data bits used to publish them.

Which is why we turn our mock draft each year over to longtime CHFF contributor Bonzo the Idiot Monkey.

If you were with Cold, Hard Football Facts in the early days, you remember Bonzo the Idiot Monkey. Two years in a row he beat Pete Prisco and every single expert at CBS Sports picking NFL games against the spread, merely by flipping a coin.

We were so impressed with his low sloping forward, primitive clucks and whistles and small cranial cavity that we then we asked him to handle our mock drafts. He became a media darling, in fact, generating coverage in the Wall Street Journal, the Houston Chronicle and beyond, while proving the futility of the mock draft concept.

His mock draft strategy is a little more sophisticated than his game-picking strategy: Bonzo puts the names of the top 40 draft prospects in a hat, in this case the company-issued hunter orange Mad Bomber cap we need to wear to Fenway Park for baseball games in April. And then Bonzo pulls out the names with his opposable thumbs.

Viola!

We have his mock draft, no more a crap shoot, really, than the mock drafts of the "experts" who have a miserable history of inaccuracy.

Let's face it: nobody really knows what's going to happen once the picks starting flying in anger Thursday night. And one single trade, one single move up or down the board, throws the whole thing into chaos anyway, instantly rendering all that time, energy and emotion devoted to the mock draft completely useless.

In our world, we covet solid data upon which we can build a storyline. We prefer to look at a team's statistical strengths and weaknesses to judge their needs and their picks based upon that data.

For example, we know the St. Louis Rams last year were No. 1 in the NFL at pressuring the passer, forcing a Negative Pass Play on a league-high 11.5 percent of opposing dropbacks: 52 sacks (tied for No. 1) and 17 INTs in 599 drop backs by opposing QBs.

Conversely, they were No. 21 in Real Passing Yards Per Attempt and No. 23 on the Offensive Hog Index

The Rams, in other words, are a team with a fairly stout defense desperate for help on offense. Yet Mayock, in his latest mock draft, has the Rams going after not one but two defenders with their two first-round draft picks.

Clearly, it would be a mistake for the Rams to draft two defenders in the first round, and certainly is not likely to happen anway in the blindfolded pin-the-tail-on-the-monkey crap shoot that is the exercise called the mock draft.

Hence, our lack of faith in mock drafts, including Bonzo the Idiot Monkey's mock draft. If it's going to be wrong, anyway, we might as well not waste any more time than necessary.

So, without further adon't, here is Bonzo the Idiot Monkey's 2013 mock draft. Note, we spotted Bonzo the top pick, as Texas A&M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel is almost universally being projected to go to the Chiefs with the No. 1 overall pick.

BONZO the IDIOT MONKEY'S 2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT

 TeamPlayerPositionCollege
1Kansas CityLuke JoeckelOTTexas A&M
2JacksonvilleGeno SmithQBWest Virginia
3OaklandShariff FloydDTFlorida
4PhiladelphiaKenny VacaroSSTexas
5DetroitBarkevious MingoDELSU
6ClevelandSheldon RichardsonDTMissouri
7ArizonaLane JohnsonOTOklahoma
8BuffaloTyler EifertTENotre Dame
9N.Y. JetsDJ FlukerOTAlabama
10TennesseeDion JordanDEOregon
11San DiegoTavon AustinWRWest Virginia
12MiamiEric FisherOTCentral Michigan
13N.Y. JetsJonathan CooperOGNorth Carolina
14CarolinaZiggy AnsahDEBYU
15New OrleansChance WarmackOGAlabama
16St. LouisDee MillinerCBAlabama
17PittsburghZach ErtzTEStanford
18DallasMenelik WatsonOTFlorida State
19N.Y. GiantsXavier RhodesCBFlorida State
20ChicagoEddie LacyRBAlabama
21CincinnatiMatt ElamFSFlorida
22St. LouisManti T'eoILBChicago
23MinnesotaBjoern WernerDEFlorida State
24IndianapolisJustin PughOTSyracuse
25MinnesotaJarvis JonesOLBGeorgia
26Green BayRobert WoodsWRUSC
27HoustonCordarrelle PattersonWRTennessee
28DenverStar LotuleleiDTUtah
29New EnglandEric ReidFSLSU
30AtlantaAlec OgletreeILBGeorgia
31San FranciscoD.J. HaydenCBHouston
32BaltimoreJustin HunterWRTennessee

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