AFC East Preview: Tom Brady Not So Terrific

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Sep 20, 2012



By Kennedy Ross
Cold, Hard Football Facts AFC East Overlord (@FNscribeNY)

The records say that everyone in the AFC east is even right now. And quite frankly, the play on the field supports that.

All four teams looked like monsters in one of their games, and then Girl Scouts in the other. The Jets have a chance to go 2-0 in the division, which is looking more and more significant as the weeks go on. Both the Bills and the Dolphins will try to capitalize on their strong showing last week.

And the Patriots have to start scaring people again. Because right now, you don't get an automatic "L" when you face New England anymore.

Here are five things you should be aware of:

1. Brady will be able to fend off these angry birds. (Patriots vs. Ravens)

So here is the good news. According to our super-duper Quality Stats, the Patriots are in good shape this 

Sunday. History tells us that the Patriots are 37-22 (.627) against the spread after a loss. They are 22-6 (.786) against the spread on the road after a loss. And they are 5-1 versus the Ravens.

The bad news is the offensive line for New England has not protected Tom "Terrific" as he is used to being protected. Brady's Real Quarterback Rating has slipped down to number 12 in our stats.

Not bad for most. Not good for him.

Meanwhile the Ravens Defensive Real Quarterback Rating is an admirable number seven. Add to that, the bitter taste in their mouths from losing to the Eagles after causing four turnovers. The Ravens won't be happy. And they certainly wont be happy to see their nemesis.

But Brady will find a way.

2. Jets will open up a can of "wildcat" (Jets vs Dolphins)

What better place to finally unveil the awesome force of the wildcat offense than the place where it made it's NFL name? The place is perfect. The team is perfect. And the time must be perfect as well.

The Jets claim they didn't use too much of the wildcat against the Bills because the game was already in hand. They claim they didn't use it last week against the Steelers because, well, they didn't really give a good answer for that one. This week has to be the week.

Although the Jets are 13-9 against the Dolphins since 2001, they are usually in for a fight. And Miami seem to like to fight Jets head coach Rex Ryan who is 2-4 against the Dolphins according to our Quality Stats. And more importantly, the Dolphins seem to always rain on the Jets parade with key wins.

Well this would be a key win for the Dolphins. A loss in this game would be a big setback for the Jets, psychologically more than anything. And with the Dolphins Offensive Hog Index soaring at number six, and the Jets Defensive Hog Index sucking at number 29, this could be one of those days.

That is why Tim Tebow and the wildcat will be the "X" factor for this game. Look at it like an insurance policy on what the numbers say should happen. And really, can you think of a nicer claims adjuster than Tim Tebow?

3. Bills will stomp their way above .500. (Bills vs. Browns)

There is nothing else you should be aware of about this game, besides this. Since 2010, the Browns are 4-11-2 at home. Not only does that mean you're a bad team, it means your fans don't even like you. Did I mention the Browns will be at home for this one? 

The Browns defense has been acting like they have a pair with top 10 spots in our Defensive Hog Index, Defensive Passer Rating, and Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. The offense on the other hand can still hit those upper octaves. 

Even with their offensive output last week, they are still dead last on our Offensive Passer Rating and next to dead last on our Real Quarterback Rating. It won't matter much because of Bills running back C.J. Spiller and the number one Offensive Hog Index. They will be grinding out yards and grinding off time. The Browns offense won't be on the field much anyway.

4. How minor is that concussion?

New York Jets all-Milky Way cornerback Darrelle Revis still has not been cleared for the game against Miami on Sunday. Revis was accidentally kicked in the head by Jets linebacker Bart Scott during the abuse of the Bills in week one. He has been out since.

The initial (and current) report was that it was a minor concussion. This led everyone to believe that he would have played the following week against Pittsburgh. That didn't happen. 

Now Jets nation is on the edge of their seat waiting to see if he will return to action this week against the Dolphins. The Dolphins are nowhere as scary as the Steelers, but the game has now become a bit more important.

When is the last time a "minor" concussion has taken a player out for weeks? Is it really minor? Is this what the future of the NFL will look like with the growing concerns over head injuries. Can the NFL maintain its sultan status in the sports world if this does become par for the course? 

The Jets and the NFL should be watching Revis very closely.

5. You should sleep well knowing . . .

 . . . Bills injured running back Fred Jackson is ahead of his recovery schedule. He is due back to action in about 3-4 weeks. These are the miracles than can transpire when your replacement is doing your job better than you did.

 . . . Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill admits to not knowing exactly what divisions or conferences all the teams in the NFL play in. If he is this easily confused, what will he do against Rex Ryan's blitz schemes? 

 . . . Tim Tebow hasn't ruled out going into politics after his career is over.

By the looks of his stats if he trades in his ticket to Miamiand heads to Washington D.C. this Sunday, he can make the presidential election in November.

He has a better chance of winning that than a Super Bowl.

 

 


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