2007 Big Play Index

The Big Play Index is our way of tracking of game-changing plays – who's making them, who's giving them up, and how it all correlates to winning.

 

The nine "Big Plays" are:

1. Fumble recovery
2. Interception
3. Defensive score (return TD, safety)
4. Pass play of 40 yards or more
5. Run play of 25 yards or more
6. Kick return of 60 yards or more
7. Punt return of 40 yards or more
8. Blocked kick or punt
9. 50-yard+ field goal

The Big Play Index proved its value in its first year of existence.

 

Teams that pulled off more Big Plays than their opponents were 180-34 in 2007, an amazing .841 winning percentage. Forty-two games ended with an equal number of Big Plays for both teams.

 

Those numbers speak to the importance of those huge, game-changing moments: pro football is a war of attrition in which just a couple plays each week prove the difference between victory and defeat.

 

The Big Play Index draws contributions from everyone up and down an NFL roster, from the quarterback to the free safety to the punt coverage gunner. All could score a Big Play for their team.

 

The league's powers are all in the top 10 on the Index, led by San Diego. The Chargers were actually negative on the Big Play chart early in the season, but went on a huge roll starting with their six-INT game vs. Peyton Manning – they were +22 in Big Plays over the second half of the season and +29 overall.

 

Most of their 69 Big Plays came from the defense, with an amazing 49 turnovers (30 INTs, 19 FRs). But the offense contributed with nine Big Play runs and five Big Play passes, while special teams added four Big Play returns.

 

New England finished No. 2, yielding a league-low 28 Big Plays. The Patriots allowed only three Big Play runs, one Big Play return and five Big Play passes in all of 2007.

 

Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Minnesota round at the Top 5. The Packers and Vikings, in particular, rode the Big Play Index to unexpected success.

 

The Vikings made a playoff run with Big Play power, but when those plays dried up there was nothing left in Minnesota but smoke and mirrors. In their final three games (including a win over the Bears marked mostly by Chicago's offensive ineptitude), the Vikings allowed 12 Big Plays and made four. End of playoff run.

 

At the bottom of the Index are the year's most disappointing teams – New Orleans (-16), Baltimore (-21) and Kansas City (-26). All three flamed out after making the playoffs in 2006, and Big Play woes were largely to blame.

 

That's a pretty direct correlation to victory: winning teams won the Big Play battle. Losing teams lost the Big Play battle. The only playoff team in the bottom 10 is the Giants at -8.

 

Judging by one season's numbers, making Big Plays isn't quite as important as stopping the other team from making them.

 

Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit all made it into the top five in Big Plays made, and even Atlanta finished in the top 10. But none of them made it to the playoffs, or past the .500 mark for that matter.

 

But nine of the top 11 teams at preventing Big Plays made the playoffs, and only the Titans and the Giants were below average. New England, meanwhile, was a perfect 16-0, and, as noted above, allowed the fewest Big Plays of any team in the league.