10 Things We Learned: Week 4 Edition

By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts Guy, Man and Dude

1. Aaron Rodgers moved past Tom Brady on the “Holy S---! Index”.

Is it too early to call the 2011 MVP race a two-man battle?

Sure, you could make mention of Calvin Johnson, Darren McFadden -- or particularly Wes Welker, who continues to be to today’s NFL what Jim Brown was to the 1960s NFL.  

But it would be a major shock if anyone besides Rodgers or Brady took home the hardware this year. While Brady was just solid in Oakland, Rodgers played “Can You Top This” in a ridiculous way vs. Denver Sunday with six total touchdowns and the kind of fantasy stats that make armchair GMs feel a euphoria notably absent in their everyday lives. Is 408 yards passing, 9-for-13 on third downs, two rushing scores (with 1 INT) even legal? The only real question is why Matt Flynn wasn’t in the game long before the tail end of the fourth quarter.

Rodgers’ passer rating of 124.6 through four games is on pace to top Peyton Manning’s 121.1 from 2004, and his completion percentage of 73.0 would also be an NFL mark. He’s on pace to throw 48 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Over his last 16 games including playoffs, he’s only turned the ball over 10 times.

Remarkably, over that span, he hasn’t had a single game where he’s attempted 40+ passes – a tribute to Mike McCarthy’s playcalling, Rodgers’ ability to pick up first downs like they’re nothing, and the Packers’ play-from-ahead greatness.

If Rodgers can top Brady for MVP (the other No. 12 is on pace for 6,000+ passing yards and 50+ touchdowns, after all), it’ll cap the greatest 12-month run for a human being since Alexander the Great made Persia his bitch in 334 B.C.

2. It was a great Sunday for San Francisco, but …

Three home losses for their division mates, a huge upset win on the road (25-24 at Philly), and a two-game division lead. It doesn’t get a whole lot better than that, and 49er fans had to be checking their calendars to make sure this wasn’t the good old days.

One problem: San Fran was in this very position in 2009.

In Week 4 that year, the 49ers improved to 3-1 with a dominating 35-0 win over the Rams that led most of the NFL press (us included) to fawn over head coach Mike Singletary and declare the corner turned. No one else had more than one win in the NFC West, and the return to postseason was imminent for a franchise that had the greatest two-decade run in any American pro sport.

Then mediocrity happened. They went 5-7 the rest of the way, the Cardinals went to the Super Bowl, and the corner remained unturned. Does this team have a better chance than the 2009 team did? Yes. For one thing, Kurt Warner isn’t quarterbacking Arizona, so a meteoric run by the Cards seems unlikely. The Rams and Seahawks are all but dead. And the 49ers still get to play five more games against their NFC West brethren.

That said, San Francisco is only averaging 4.7 yards a play while the defense is allowing 5.7 yards a play – and teams can’t win consistently in the NFL with those type of numbers. They’re playing smart (+8 in turnovers), but even in the weak West, they’re eventually going to have to win some games instead of just failing to lose them.

Even their “stirring comeback win” at the Eagles Sunday was more a case of the Eagles making the kind of bonehead mistakes that get less established head coaches on the hot seat. Sorry to be a downer, 49ers fans, but it’s not Montana-to-Rice out there yet.

3. Dallas’ bad losses obscure the fact that the D has taken a huge step forward.

Jason Garrett and Tony Romo deserve oodles of blame for the 34-31 loss to Detroit, but Rob Ryan is getting the job done.

Dallas allowed 5.8 yards a play, 4.3 yards a rush and a 92.8 rating – all bottom-feeder numbers. This year, it’s 4.9 yards a play (in a wacky early-season offense fest, that’s good for No. 4 overall), 3.1 yards per rush and an 82.7 rating. All three rank them in the top 10 league wide. They have yet to allow a run of 20 yards or more, the only NFL team to have achieved this arcane but important achievement.

If anything, the play of the defense makes Romo and Garrett look even worse. Clearly, this is a team that should be endeavoring to play conservatively with leads, not act like it’s time to audition for the Arena league. Dallas is bidding to be this year’s San Diego Chargers – the team that clearly has 12-win talent, but manages to only win nine and miss the playoffs.

P.S.: Is Jerry Jones’ head going to explode soon?

4. The Tennessee Titans are for real.

The Texans are still the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South, especially after manhandling the Steelers 17-10 in a game that shouldn’t have been that close on Sunday.

But Tennessee, which would dearly love a mulligan from their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, are also 3-1, and have played some completely unexpected football. Their shellacking of the Ravens in Week 2 is looking less and less like a fluke with each week – both because the Ravens are clearly for real and because the Titans followed it with two solid wins.

The Titans might have allowed 416 net yards in the 31-13 win at Cleveland, but they were excellent in the number that means more – yards per play, 4.8. The Titans’ run defense has been great -- 3.2 yards against, and that’s vs. four running teams in Cleveland, Denver, Baltimore and Jacksonville -- and was a key in establishing a 25-point lead in the third quarter Sunday.

It seems unlikely that Matt Hasselbeck (104.7 rating) will continue to play this well, but it’s also unlikely that Chris Johnson (2.9 yards per carry) will play that poorly all year. But if the defense plays as well as it has, this team has what it takes for double digit wins.
 

5. The difference between the 0-4 Vikings and 4-0 Lions is pretty slim.

The Lions are averaging 5.6 yards a play and allowing 5.2, the Vikings are averaging 5.4 yards a play and allowing 5.6. The Vikings can stop the run and run the ball, the Lions can pass the ball and stop the run. They’re both decent teams, capable of winning or losing every week.

And they’re four games apart in the NFC North standings.

Put Calvin Johnson in purple and white instead of silver and blue, and you might be looking at 2-2 for both, or maybe even 3-1 for the Vikings and 1-3 for the Lions. Three of Detroit’s wins were 50-50 types that ended in the cardiac Lions favor, while three of the Vikings’ losses were the same.

That said, not only is Detroit 4-0, but has a very manageable schedule upcoming – home games against the
Bears, 49ers and Falcons, followed by trips to Denver and Chicago and a home game vs. Carolina. Will the Lions run that train? Probably not, but even going 3-3 or 4-2 leaves them at 7-3 or 8-2 heading into the real tough part of that schedule.

As for the Vikings? Don’t blame Donovan McNabb (decent 80.9 rating), or the defense – blame bad luck, and the vagaries of the NFL. And for God's sake, just move to Los Angeles already.

6. The AFC playoffs might not be big enough for both the Jets and Steelers.

Every year, there are new teams in the postseason, but looking at the AFC this August it was tough to see which teams outside of the Chiefs and Colts were going to miss out on the party.

But if the playoffs started today (which, after some research, we can report they do not), Pittsburgh and the Jets would also be out, with Tennessee, Houston, San Diego and Buffalo all in.

Should fans in Steel City and Long Island be worried? On a 1-to-10 scale, 10 being the most worried, put the
Steelers at a 7 and the Jets at a 4.

Both teams have to worry about superior squads ahead of them in the division race, New England in the Jets’ case, Baltimore in Pittsburgh’s. But the Steelers have the added worry of Ben Roethlisberger’s health – he’s already banged up with an ankle injury, and the Steelers’ Offensive Hogs have been offensive thus far. They were 17th coming into the week thanks largely to Big Ben’s third-down abilities, and the six negative pass plays allowed Sunday could have been 10 or 12. The defense is still strong, but this is a team that was 19th in our Quality Stats power rankings last week and has a lot of tough games left.

The picture is brighter for the Jets, if only because center Nick Mangold will probably be back sooner than later, and his absence seems to be the team’s biggest problem. The Jets had a huge bounce-back performance on defense Sunday night in the loss to Baltimore, and that’s more important almost than their losing the game with the offense. Mark Sanchez will be up and down, but unless the D isn’t there it really doesn’t matter.

7. Cam Newton continues to be must-see TV.

It’s pretty clear by now that the lockout was a two-edged sword for Newton. Financially, it cut him pretty deep, costing him at least $30 million. But on the field, it has helped massively – and he’ll make that $30 million back and then some.

Thanks to the long layoff, NFL defenses are throwing simplified looks out there, which is great news for a guy like
Newton, who just spent the entire 2010 making simplified college defenses look silly. Newton’s passer rating might only be 84.5, but his Real Quarterback Rating was 10th in the league through three weeks and that’s the one that really counts – because he is, pretty clearly, a real quarterback. Throwing for 371 yards in Chicago is something that rookies don’t do in October, but he did it.

The Panthers’ defense, unfortunately, is plenty bad, getting gashed through the air by Arizona and Green Bay and on the ground by the Bears. Oh, and they play the Falcons and Saints the next two weeks.

But they’re not the only D with a dynamic QB that can’t stop anyone. It can’t be a concidence that the teams ranked 32nd, 31st and 30th in Yards Per Play allowed this year are the Patriots (Brady), Panthers (Newton) and Packers (Rodgers).

8. The Redskins and Rams played an NFL game Sunday.

Every week, there is a game that just fails to connect with the average viewer. It gets to be 8:30 p.m., you’ve been sweating out all the games in various ways, and then you say “Who did (uninteresting team) play today? Oh yeah, they beat (uninteresting team B). Hmm.”

And so it was with Redskins 17, Rams 10. It will certainly receive less coverage today than any other game, so let’s give it a good look.

Well, both pass defenses played well (less than 50 percent of passes were complete) … or was it that Rex Grossman and Sam Bradford just played to their normal underwhelming level? The teams were in the red zone four times between them, they both fumbled three times apiece and were whistled for 19 combined penalties.

Yep. About the only notable happening in this one was the Redskins improving to 3-1 and staying tied with the Giants atop the NFC East despite fairly clearly being the division’s weakest team. Mike Shanahan for Coach of the Year, anyone?

9. Now that the magic run is over, the Bills have some major challenges ahead.

Buffalo is a legitimate playoff contender, but will have to be road warriors to make the playoffs. Still to go on the Bills’ schedule: road trips to the Giants, Cowboys, Dolphins, Jets, Chargers and Patriots. They will probably be favored at Miami, but will be underdogs in the other five – and they still have to face the Eagles, Jets, Redskins and Titans at home. That’s 10 tough games left out of 12, and just winning five of them might not be enough.

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s passer ratings from 2008-10 were 70.0, 69.7 and 81.8, so it’s safe to assume that more games like the one in Cincinnati (75.5 rating) will follow. And the defense is allowing 29.7 PPG in its last three, which certainly isn’t going to cut it.

10. The Saints and Patriots have offenses so amazing that just being excellent feels like a comedown.

New England went on the road to Oakland, scored 31 points and rolled up 409 yards, while the Saints had 503 yards in Jacksonville against a tough Jaguar defense. In both cases, the better teams won by 10+ points, and in both cases the fan bases were left wanting more.

It was a perfect Sunday for New England, winning while the Bills and Jets lost, but there’s really not a whole lot of doubt that the AFC East will be theirs. When you score 30+ points every week, you’re going to win at least 12 games – and it’s tough to see the Jets or Bills doing that. The Jets have only won 12 games once in their franchise history, and the Bills haven’t done it since 1993.

As for the Saints, they’ve got the NFC South lead to themselves for at least one day, pending the Bucs’ game vs. the Colts Monday night. They were almost toying with the Jaguars Sunday, wasting their three-headed RB (Thomas, Ingram and Sproles had a combined 268 yards from scrimmage) by going 2-for-5 in the red zone.  

Still, when you don’t play your best and cruise to road wins, it’s a good thing.
 

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