Super Study Breakdown of Super Bowl XLVII, Part 3

By Adam Dobrowolski (@tabsports)
Cold, Hard Football Facts Super-Powered Mathlete

Already two parts into our look back at the epic Super Study conducted earlier this month, and it's already become apparent that some of the "red flag" factors were misleading in determining the Baltimore Ravens' run to Super Bowl XLVII. As explained yesterday, the decision by Ray Lewis to retire after this postseason completely washed away any negative momentum from 1-4 finish to the regular season. Actually, this storyline arguably put the Ravens in better position to make the run to the Super Bowl than the San Francisco 49ers.

Of course, we here at Cold, Hard Football Facts like to think that there's more than a retirement storyline that'll determine if the Ravens, the fifth team with a 9-7 or 10-6 record in the last six years making the Super Bowl, can pull off the upset against the 49ers.

Remember, the epic Super Study showed the 2012 49ers had only two red flags, making them a decent candidate to win Super Bowl XLVII. Meanwhile, the 2012 Ravens had six red flags, proving this run was an unlikely and special one. In the last seven Super Bowls, the team with more red flags won six times.

Today's part of the study looks at how blowout losses and point differential will impact Super Bowl XLVII.

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First, let's look at the blowout losses for each team this season. During the Super Study, we classified "blowout losses" as losses by more than two possessions. For teams that lost multiple games by at least 17 points, it shows potential significant shortcomings in the overall quality of a team. Elite teams should not be blown out.

The chart below looks at each Super Bowl team's number of blowout losses. Note that we provided different standards for the winners and losers during the Super Study, something which we will probably have to review in the future.

Winners				Losers
SB	Team	Count			SB	Team	Count
I	66 Packers	0			I	66 Chiefs	1
II	67 Packers	0			II	67 Raiders	0
III	68 Jets	0			III	68 Colts	0
IV	69 Chiefs	0			IV	69 Vikings	0
V	70 Colts	2			V	70 Cowboys	2
VI	71 Cowboys	0			VI	71 Dolphins	1
VII	72 Dolphins	0			VII	72 Redskins	0
VIII	73 Dolphins	0			VIII	73 Vikings	1
IX	74 Steelers	1			IX	74 Vikings	0
X	75 Steelers	0			X	75 Cowboys	0
XI	76 Raiders	1			XI	76 Vikings	0
XII	77 Cowboys	1			XII	77 Broncos	0
XIII	78 Steelers	0			XIII	78 Cowboys	0
XIV	79 Steelers	2			XIV	79 Rams	4
XV	80 Raiders	1			XV	80 Eagles	0
XVI	81 49ers	1			XVI	81 Bengals	1
XVII	82 Redskins	0			XVII	82 Dolphins	0
XVIII	83 Raiders	0			XVIII	83 Redskins	0
XIX	84 49ers	0			XIX	84 Dolphins	0
XX	85 Bears	0			XX	85 Patriots	1
XXI	86 Giants	0			XXI	86 Broncos	2
XXII	87 Redskins	0			XXII	87 Broncos	1
XXIII	88 49ers	2			XXIII	88 Bengals	1
XXIV	89 49ers	0			XXIV	89 Broncos	0
XXV	90 Giants	1			XXV	90 Bills	2
XXVI	91 Redskins	0			XXVI	91 Bills	1
XXVII	92 Cowboys	1			XXVII	92 Bills	3
XXVIII	93 Cowboys	1			XXVIII	93 Bills	2
XXIX	94 49ers	1			XXIX	94 Chargers	1
XXX	95 Cowboys	1			XXX	95 Steelers	2
XXXI	96 Packers	0			XXXI	96 Patriots	1
XXXII	97 Broncos	1			XXXII	97 Packers	0
XXXIII	98 Broncos	0			XXXIII	98 Falcons	1
XXXIV	99 Rams	0			XXXIV	99 Titans	2
XXXV	00 Ravens	0			XXXV	00 Giants	0
XXXVI	01 Patriots	1			XXXVI	01 Rams	0
XXXVII	02 Bucs	0			XXXVII	02 Raiders	0
XXXVIII	03 Patriots	1			XXXVIII	03 Panthers	1
XXXIX	04 Patriots	0			XXXIX	04 Eagles	2
XL	05 Steelers	1			XL	05 Seahawks	0
XLI	06 Colts	1			XLI	06 Bears	2
XLII	07 Giants	2			XLII	07 Patriots	0
XLIII	08 Steelers	1			XLIII	08 Cardinals	4
XLIV	09 Saints	0			XLIV	09 Colts	1
XLV	10 Packers	0			XLV	10 Steelers	0
XLVI	11 Giants	1			XLVI	11 Patriots	0

If we held the same standards for winners and losers, there would be 11 red flags for the Super Bowl losers. Of all the factors from the Super Study, this proved to be very telling throughout all the eras. Of the underdog conference champions, only the 2007 Giants and 2008 Cardinals suffered multiple blowout losses. Meanwhile, only two teams (1988 49ers and 2007 Giants) with multiple blowout losses defeated teams with less than two blowout losses.

Regardless the outcome of Super Bowl XLVII, the winner will become the third team with multiple blowout losses to defeat another team with multiple blowout losses, as you'll see below.

• Baltimore Ravens: 2 blowout losses (43-13 at Texans, 34-17 v. Broncos)
• San Francisco 49ers: 2 blowout losses (26-3 v. Giants, 42-13 at Seahawks)

For each team, the blowout losses seem to be as much a product of the competition as any shortcomings for those teams. The Seahawks and Broncos finished first and second respectively in the Quality Stats Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Texans and Giants were both top five teams in the first half of the season, when those two games occurred.

In an attempt to split hairs to determine who has the advantage, we go back to a claim made in yesterday's part of the study. The claim stated:

"Believe it or not, though, the blowout loss against Denver helped in the long run. The Ravens saw what the Broncos did well on both sides of the ball, and they made the necessary adjustments in the Divisional Round. Without that first time battling the Broncos, perhaps the Ravens would be eliminated at this point."

While it's not good for playoff teams to suffer multiple blowout losses, it's important to note how tough it is for a playoff-quality team to be blown out twice by the same team. The Ravens were good enough to make the most of their second encounter of the Broncos, giving them the advantage among two teams with a red flag. Advantage: Ravens

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For the second part of today's analysis, we look at scoring margin. The "blowout losses" red flag can be misleading, as the losses could be an outlier for some teams. Point differential helps to indicate if those losses are outliers. The 49ers lost the two aforementioned games by a combined 52 points. If they finish with a strong overall scoring margin, it would suggest that the losses were out of the ordinary. Meanwhile, if the scoring margin is rather weak, it illustrates how the losses with a sign of some shortcomings. We investigate scoring margin for each Super Bowl team in the chart below.

Winners				Losers
SB	Team	Margin			SB	Team	Margin
I	66 Packers	+172			I	66 Chiefs	+172
II	67 Packers	+123			II	67 Raiders	+235
III	68 Jets	+139			III	68 Colts	+258
IV	69 Chiefs	+182			IV	69 Vikings	+246
V	70 Colts	+87			V	70 Cowboys	+78
VI	71 Cowboys	+184			VI	71 Dolphins	+141
VII	72 Dolphins	+214			VII	72 Redskins	+118
VIII	73 Dolphins	+193			VIII	73 Vikings	+128
IX	74 Steelers	+116			IX	74 Vikings	+115
X	75 Steelers	+211			X	75 Cowboys	+82
XI	76 Raiders	+113			XI	76 Vikings	+129
XII	77 Cowboys	+133			XII	77 Broncos	+126
XIII	78 Steelers	+161			XIII	78 Cowboys	+176
XIV	79 Steelers	+154			XIV	79 Rams	+14
XV	80 Raiders	+58			XV	80 Eagles	+162
XVI	81 49ers	+107			XVI	81 Bengals	+117
XVII	82 Redskins	+62			XVII	82 Dolphins	+67
XVIII	83 Raiders	+104			XVIII	83 Redskins	+209
XIX	84 49ers	+248			XIX	84 Dolphins	+215
XX	85 Bears	+258			XX	85 Patriots	+72
XXI	86 Giants	+135			XXI	86 Broncos	+51
XXII	87 Redskins	+94			XXII	87 Broncos	+91
XXIII	88 49ers	+75			XXIII	88 Bengals	+119
XXIV	89 49ers	+189			XXIV	89 Broncos	+136
XXV	90 Giants	+124			XXV	90 Bills	+165
XXVI	91 Redskins	+261			XXVI	91 Bills	+140
XXVII	92 Cowboys	+166			XXVII	92 Bills	+98
XXVIII	93 Cowboys	+147			XXVIII	93 Bills	+87
XXIX	94 49ers	+209			XXIX	94 Chargers	+75
XXX	95 Cowboys	+144			XXX	95 Steelers	+80
XXXI	96 Packers	+246			XXXI	96 Patriots	+105
XXXII	97 Broncos	+185			XXXII	97 Packers	+140
XXXIII	98 Broncos	+192			XXXIII	98 Falcons	+153
XXXIV	99 Rams	+284			XXXIV	99 Titans	+68
XXXV	00 Ravens	+168			XXXV	00 Giants	+82
XXXVI	01 Patriots	+99			XXXVI	01 Rams	+230
XXXVII	02 Bucs	+150			XXXVII	02 Raiders	+146
XXXVIII	03 Patriots	+110			XXXVIII	03 Panthers	+21
XXXIX	04 Patriots	+177			XXXIX	04 Eagles	+126
XL	05 Steelers	+131			XL	05 Seahawks	+181
XLI	06 Colts	+67			XLI	06 Bears	+172
XLII	07 Giants	+22			XLII	07 Patriots	+315
XLIII	08 Steelers	+124			XLIII	08 Cardinals	+1
XLIV	09 Saints	+169			XLIV	09 Colts	+109
XLV	10 Packers	+148			XLV	10 Steelers	+143
XLVI	11 Giants	-6			XLVI	11 Patriots	+171

The threshold for the outlier in this part of study is an average scoring margin less than +5.0 points per game. This stat suggests that the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers were much better than their six seed indicated. However, other underdogs (like the two Giants teams) were certainly as mediocre as their regular season record suggested. We can now see one of the reasons why not all underdogs are alike, and that's why the Super Study has an important role in future postseason historical analysis. As for this Ravens squad, where do they stand?

• Baltimore Ravens: +54 points (11th in the league)
• San Francisco 49ers: +124 points (fourth in the league)

Remember back in the first part of the study, when we discussed how the Ravens had five one-possession wins against non-quality opponents, as opposed to the 49ers having only one. That plays a big factor in separating these two in point differential. San Francisco certainly took advantage of weak opposing offenses (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals, Rams), but their schedule honestly wasn't easier than Baltimore's. The Ravens played the AFC West and NFC East. San Francisco more than doubled Baltimore's point differential against arguably a tougher schedule. The advantage is quite clear, and this might be the biggest advantage for the 49ers. Advantage: 49ers

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In the next installment, Adam Dobrowolski concludes this series with a look at the starting quarterbacks and their postseason experience. What does Super Bowl history say about Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick?

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