Stat Pack Week 16: Road Woes for Playoff Teams
By Adam Dobrowolski
Cold, Hard Football Facts Chief Mathletics Advisor
In Week 15, six divisional leaders lost their respective games. Five of them (Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Saints and Eagles) kept their grasp atop their respective divisions, but the Lions dropped to third in the NFC North. In the AFC, the playoff picture remained the same among the top four despite the losses. In the NFC, now the Saints and Eagles must beat the second-place team (Panthers and Cowboys, respective) to win their respective divisions.
Beyond all that, there might be a deeper issue that arose. The Patriots and Saints each fell to 3-4 on the road, while the Bengals fell to 3-5 away from home. These three are not the only projected or potential playoff teams who struggle on the road.
In the NFC, four other playoff hopefuls own a 3-4 road record (Bears, Cardinals, Packers, Lions). The Cowboys and Ravens are 2-5 on the road. Even the Chargers are 4-4 on the road, despite their proclivity for beating quality teams. Finally, the Colts are 4-3, but travel to Kansas City on Sunday.
With that mind, Stat Pack host Adam Dobrowolski delved into the Mathletics of playoff teams with a .500 or worse road record. While 10 such teams in NFL history made the Super Bowl, and four came in the last decade, the history doesn't look good for these playoff teams.
Since 2003, these teams own a 16-25 on the road. Furthermore, 13 of the 42 teams went one-and-done in home playoff games (without ever playing on the road in the postseason). Of the 13 losses, nine came against teams with a winning road record. Finally, of the 16 wins, seven were earned by the Super Bowl teams (2006 Colts, 2008 Cardinals, 2010 Packers, 2012 Ravens) and an additional two were earned by the rest of the 2008 NFC class. Only one NFC team in 2008 and a winning road record, and those Giants were ousted one-and-done.
So will Dobrowolski BUY or SELL any road teams to win postseason games?
Also of note in this week's episode, Dobrowolski examines which defenses stood out in Week 15, according to the Big Board. Furthermore, he offers up a preview of what the Intelligence Index thinks will happen to the NFC playoff picture in the final two weeks.
Make sure to check out this week's six pack of topics on Stat Pack!
For those who are interested in checking out bits and pieces of this week's podcasts, every edition will include a "playlist" of sorts breaking down every segment from the podcast.
2:20 -- Mathletics: Road Woes for Playoff Teams
12:40 -- Week 15 Big Board Highlights
16:55 -- King of Props Week 15 Review
18:55 -- The Stat Pack Week 16 Power Rankings
23:20 -- Week 16 Preview via the Intelligence Index
25:30 -- Six Pack of Top Games for Week 16
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- Steelers-Seahawks tight statistical showdown
- Patriots, Panthers Have Each Faced Just 1 Quality Opponent
- New England Heads to Denver Dominant in Quality Stats Battle
- Cardinals, Patriots Top 2 in Mother of All Stats, Passer Rating Differential
- Super Bowl XLIX Prop Bets: Full List
- Super Bowl 49 Game Capsule: Patriots @ Seahawks
- Awesome: Must-see Super Bowl Hall of Shame Infographic
- Referee Bill Vinovich Gets The Nod For Super Bowl 49 -- Balls