Hall of Fame Running Backs: Who is Worthy of Gold Jacket?

The National Football League recently announced it's 27 semi-finalists for the 2013 Hall of Fame class. The list will be pared down to 15 finalists in January and the selection committee will announce the newest members on Super Bowl weekend. 

Worth noting this year is there are zero skill-position players among the six first-time nominees. They are Larry Allen, OL; Morten Andersen, K; John Lynch, FS; Jonathan Ogden, T;Warren Sapp, DT; Michael Strahan, DE.

Quarterbacks are missing altogether from the 2013 ballot, with none of the 21 players on the list having played "the most important position in all of sport". The truth is that there aren't really any Hall-eligible quarterbacks this year who really deserve induction, although Ron Jaworski and Phil Simms (legends in their own minds) would probably disagree.

There are just six primarily skill position players on this year's ballot; three running backs (Roger Craig, Terrell Davis, Jerome Bettis) and three wide receivers (Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Andre Reed).

The five non-player semi-finalists are former coaches Don Coryell and Bill Parcells, former owners Eddie Debartalo, Jr. and Art Modell, and former NFL contributor George Young.

Here are the rest of the 2013 Semi-Finalists:

Steve Atwater, S
Kevin Greene, LB/DE
Charles Haley, LB/DE
Joe Jacoby, T
Albert Lewis, CB
John Lynch, FS
Karl Mecklenburg, LB
Will Shields, G
Steve Tasker, ST/WR
Aeneas Williams, CB/S

There will no doubt be new Hall of Fame members from the" down-and-dirty" football positions once again this year with all of the lineman, defensive backs, and even a kicker comprising the majority of the field. As usual, however, most of the debate that clogs the airwaves and fills columns will still center around the skilled guys.

What Defines a Modern Era Hall of Fame Running Back?

Focusing on the running backs, Terrell Davis is a semi-finalist for the seventh consecutive year and he's joined by running backs Roger Craig and Jerome Bettis. Craig was a finalist in 2010 and Bettis has made it to the final round the past two years.

We're going to breakdown the twelve modern running backs that are already in Canton (career began after 1970 merger) along with Davis, Bettis, and Craig to see who, if any, of this year's running back crop deserves to get a gold jacket.

First, let's take a look at the twelve modern era running backs that are already enshrined to see what it takes to become immortal:

Modern Era Hall of Fame Running Back Career Statistics

Name	Years Played	Games Played	Rush Yds	RY/A	Rush TD	Total Yds	Total TD	Total Yds/Game
John Riggins	1971-1985	175	11,352	3.89	104	13,442	116	76.8
Franco Harris	1972-1984	173	12,120	4.11	91	14,407	100	83.3
Walter Payton	1975-1987	190	16,726	4.36	110	21,264	125	111.9
Tony Dorsett	1977-1988	173	12,739	4.34	77	16,293	90	94.2
Earl Campbell	1978-1985	115	9,407	4.30	74	10,213	74	88.8
Marcus Allen	1982-1997	222	12,243	4.05	123	17,654	144	79.5
Eric Dickerson	1983-1993	146	13,259	4.43	90	15,396	96	105.5
Thurman Thomas	1988-2000	182	12,074	4.20	65	16,532	88	90.8
Barry Sanders	1989-1998	153	15,269	4.99	99	18,190	109	118.9
Emmitt Smith	1990-2004	226	18,355	4.16	164	21,579	175	95.5
Marshall Faulk	1994-2005	176	12,279	4.33	100	19,154	136	108.8
Curtis Martin	1995-2005	168	14,101	4.01	90	17,430	100	103.8

• The dozen Hall of Famers have an average of 175 games played, 13,327 career Rushing Yards, and 99 career Rushing Touchdowns. All twelve have at least 10,000 yards from scrimmage and 74 combined touchdowns.

• Five of the twelve averaged more than 100 combined yards per game and only two (John Riggins, Marcus Allen) averaged less than 80 yards per game.

• Exactly half of the running backs averaged more than 4.3 RY/A for their careers and only Riggins averaged less than 4.0.

Here are the same statistics for the three semi-finalist running backs:

Name	Years Played	Games Played	Rush Yds	RY/A	Rush TD	Total Yds	Total TD	Total Yds/Game
Roger Craig	1983-1993	165	8,189	4.11	56	13,100	73	79.4
Jerome Bettis	1993-2005	192	13,662	3.93	91	15,111	94	78.7
Terrell Davis	1995-2001	78	7,607	4.60	60	8,887	65	113.9

• Terrell Davis falls well short in the career marks having played 37 less games than Earl Campbell, but his 4.6 RY/A and 113.9 Total Yds per Game rank higher than every HOF'er except for Barry Sanders. However, Davis would be the only "modern era" running back in the Hall of Fame with less than 10,000 yards from scrimmage.

•  Jerome Bettis would join nine of the current HOF'ers with over 15,000 Total Yards but he and Craig both averaged less than 80 Total Yards per game, well below the benchmark. Bettis would also join John Riggins as the only running backs that had a career average under 4.0.

•  Roger Craig would join Marshall Faulk and Marcus Allen as the only HOF running backs with 500+ Receptions and 4,000 Receiving Yards.

 

Now let's take a deeper look, this time at accolades and milestones, which must be part of the equation when deeming someone Hall of Fame Worthy:

Name	Seasons Played	League MVP	1st Team All-Pro	Pro Bowls	1,500 Yd Rush	2,000 Total Yds	15+ Total TD	Super Bowl Wins	Super Bowl MVP
John Riggins	14	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1
Franco Harris	13	0	1	9	0	0	0	4	1
Walter Payton	13	1	5	9	4	4	2	1	0
Tony Dorsett	12	0	1	4	1	0	0	1	0
Earl Campbell	8	1	3	5	2	0	1	0	0
Marcus Allen	16	1	2	6	1	1	2	1	1
Eric Dickerson	11	0	5	6	4	4	2	0	0
Thurman Thomas	13	1	5	2	0	2	0	0	0
Barry Sanders	10	1	6	10	5	2	2	0	0
Emmitt Smith	15	1	4	8	3	2	5	3	1
Marshall Faulk	12	1	3	7	0	4	2	1	0
Curtis Martin	11	0	1	5	2	0	2	0	0

• Seven of the twelve Hall of Famers were League MVPs, four were Super Bowl MVPs. Only Emmitt Smith did both.

• All twelve were First Team All-Pro at least once with seven of them doing it three or more times.

• Only John Riggins and Thurman Thomas were not selected to at least three Pro Bowls.

• Six of the twelve had multiple seasons exceeding 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Only Eric Dickerson (1984) and Barry Sanders (1997) had 2,000 yard rushing seasons.

• Seven of the twelve won a Super Bowl with Franco Harris (4) and Emmitt Smith (3) the only ones with multiple rings.

 

 Now for the prospective bustees:

 

Name	Seasons Played	League MVP	1st Team All-Pro	Pro Bowls	1,500 Yd Rush	2,000 Total Yds	15+ Total TD	Super Bowl Wins	Super Bowl MVP
Roger Craig	11	0	1	4	1	2	1	3	0
Jerome Bettis	13	0	2	6	1	0	0	1	0
Terrell Davis	7	1	3	3	3	2	3	2	1

• Terrell Davis won a League MVP and was the just the fourth player in league history to have a 2,000 yard rushing season in 1998 (Jamal Lewis & Chris Johnson have done it since). He was also a First Team All-Pro three times in addition to being a two-time Super Bowl Champion and Super Bowl XXXII MVP.

• Jerome Bettis made six Pro Bowls but had just one season where he topped 1,500 rushing yards and never scored 15 touchdowns in a season.

• Roger Craig won three Super Bowls with the San Francisco 49ers and had two seasons with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage but was a First Team All-Pro just once.

 

More Important: Longevity or Productivity?

All three semi-finalist running backs have compelling arguments for and against induction based on the criteria above. Terrell Davis lacked durability and longevity and benefited from Alex Gibbs' revolutionary "zone blocking" scheme that made superstars out of guys like Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary. 

Jerome Bettis was a "Three yards and a cloud of dust" back, and Roger Craig was a dual threat but never dominated the league and many would say was a product of Bill Walsh's then-groundbreaking West Coast Offense.

Let's take it one step further.

We took a look at all 15 running backs most productive three seasons, or "High Three" as we'll refer to them. Here's how the prospective candidates stack up:

"High 3" Running Back Seasons, Sorted by Total Yards Per Game

Name	High 3 Years	Games Played	Rush Yds	RY/A	Rush TD	Total Yds (Ru+Rec)	Total TD	Total Yds/Game
Marshall Faulk	1999-2001	44	4,122	5.38	37	6,765	59	153.8
Eric Dickerson	1983-84,'86	48	5,734	4.89	43	6,482	45	135.0
Walter Payton	1977,'79,'84	46	5,146	4.73	39	6,096	43	132.5
Terrell Davis	1996-'98	47	5,296	4.79	49	6,110	53	130.0
Barry Sanders	1994,'96-'97	48	5,489	5.64	29	6,224	33	129.7
Emmitt Smith	1991-'92,'95	48	5,049	4.53	55	6,017	57	125.4
Thurman Thomas	1991-'93	47	4,209	4.41	22	5,853	30	124.5
Marcus Allen	1983-'85	48	3,941	4.28	33	5,844	43	121.8
Roger Craig	1985,'88-'89	48	3,606	4.54	24	5,629	32	117.3
Curtis Martin	1995,2001,'04	48	4,697	4.38	36	5,523	39	115.1
Earl Campbell	1978-'80	46	5,081	4.87	45	5,270	45	114.6
Tony Dorsett	1978,'81,'83	48	4,292	4.66	19	5,282	24	110.0
Jerome Bettis	1993,'96-'97	47	4,525	4.58	25	5,001	27	106.4
Franco Harris	1975,'77,'79	43	3,594	4.34	32	4,161	34	96.8
John Riggins	1979,'83-'84	45	3,739	3.89	47	3,974	50	88.3

 

• Terrell Davis joins Marshall Faulk, Eric Dickerson, and Walter Payton as the only backs to average at least 130 Total Yards Per Game in their best three year span.

• Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk are the only backs with at least 200 Receptions and 2,000 Receiving Yards in their high three.

• Davis joins Faulk, Emmitt Smith, and John Riggins as the only backs to average more than one touchdown per game in thier high three.

• Davis' 4.79 RY/A is surpassed only by Barry Sanders (5.64), Faulk (5.38), Dickerson (4.89) and Earl Campbell (4.87)

• Jerome Bettis is eighth on this list in Rushing yards (4,525), RY/A (4.58) and 13th in Total Yards (5,001) and Yards Per Game (106.4) for his high three.

By this criteria it is hard to deny that Davis has a strong case for enshrinement. Between 1996-1998 he was the most dominant skill position player in the NFL while his Denver Broncos compiled a 39-9 (.813) regular season record and back-to-back Super Bowl Titles (XXXII & XXXIII).

 

Post-Season: Does it Carry Same Weight for Running Backs as it does for Quarterbacks?

Football players, especially quarterbacks, have long been judged on their post-season performance and ability to lead their teams to championships. Terry Bradshaw's numbers pale in comparison to guys like Ken Anderson, but Bradshaw's four Super Bowl titles made him a no-brainer Hall of Famer.

Its hard to argue that a running back is more important to overall team success than a quarterback, but mos,t if not al,l of the 15 running backs we're evaluating were the focal point of their offenses for much of their careers.

Let's take a look at the playoff numbers of all 15 backs to see if the scales tip in favor or against our perspective enshrinees.

Career Playoff Statistics, Sorted by Total Yards Per Game

Name	Playoff Games	Rush Yds	RY/A	Rush TDs	Total Yds	Total TDs	Total Yds/ Game	TDs/Game
Terrell Davis	8	1,140	5.59	12	1,271	12	158.9	1.50
Marcus Allen	16	1,347	5.04	11	1,877	13	117.3	0.81
Eric Dickerson	7	724	4.89	3	815	4	116.4	0.57
John Riggins	9	996	3.97	12	1,041	12	115.7	1.33
Emmitt Smith	17	1,586	4.54	19	1,928	21	113.4	1.24
Curtis Martin	10	795	4.37	8	1,100	8	110.0	0.80
Franco Harris	19	1,556	3.89	16	2,060	17	108.4	0.89
Tony Dorsett	17	1,383	4.58	9	1,786	10	105.1	0.59
Thurman Thomas	21	1,442	4.25	16	2,114	21	100.7	1.00
Marshall Faulk	12	602	3.65	6	1,121	8	93.4	0.67
Walter Payton	9	632	3.51	2	810	2	90.0	0.22
Barry Sanders	6	386	4.24	1	497	1	82.8	0.17
Roger Craig	18	841	4.04	7	1,447	9	80.4	0.50
Earl Campbell	6	420	3.11	4	465	4	77.5	0.67
Jerome Bettis	14	674	3.39	9	731	9	52.2	0.64

• Terrell Davis tops the list along with Marcus Allen as the only two backs to average more than 5.0 RY/A in their post-season careers.  Davis' 5.59 RY/A is nearly a full yard higher than his career regular season average and his 158.9 Total Yards Per Game exceeds his regular season average by 45 Yds/Game.
  

• Davis' 1.5 Touchdowns per game also tops the list. Only John Riggins (1.33), Emmitt Smith (1.24) and Thurman Thomas (1.0) averaged a touchdown or better per playoff game.
  

• Roger Craig's post-season Total Yards/Game (80.4) and Touchdowns/Game (0.50) nearly mirror his regular season averages of 79.4 and 0.44. 

• Jerome Bettis averaged 26.5 less Total Yards Per Game in the playoffs than he did in the regular season but scored slightly more often in the post-season (0.64 TDs/Game to 0.49 TDs/Game in regular season).
  

 

Who Should Get a Gold Jacket?

I don't currently have a seat on the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection board, but after looking at the complete picture the above data provides, it is clear that the next running back to don a gold jacket should be Terrell Davis.

Davis' career was cut short thanks to a blown-out knee he suffered when making a tackle after a Brian Griese interception just four games into his first season post-Elway. He attempted two comebacks but only played in 13 more games after 1999.

The biggest knock on Davis is his the longevity of his career, but taking a look at how dominant he was over his best three years shows he was truly an elite running back during an era that had more than a few of them. Not having 10,000 career yards and less than 100 career games leaves Davis with a far smaller body of work than any of his contemporaries.

Offsetting the low career numbers are Davis' extraordinary post-season statistics, where he blows away every current and prospective member on our list when it comes to game averages and scoring. Once again, the only member of our "modern era" running back panel besides Davis to win a regular season MVP and Super Bowl MVP is Emmitt Smith.

As for Roger Craig and Jerome Bettis, both probably belong in the Hall of Honorable Mentions but aren't quite Canton material. Bettis was always a fan favorite and will likely make it because of the Hall of Fame's love for Pittsburgh Steelers, but his numbers don't really warrant it.

Craig was a pass catching running back pioneer, but was very much a product of Bill Walsh's West Coast offense and had the benefit of lining up behind Joe Montana for the meat of his career. His numbers don't compare favorably to Marcus Allen or Marshall Faulk, both similar to Craig in ability.

The bottom line is Terrell Davis deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, Roger Craig and Jerome Bettis do not. At least not this year.

 

 

 

 

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