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Miami at New England (-5.5)
The Patriots have already locked up home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and the Dolphins have already been eliminated from playoff contention.
So neither team has anything to play for on Sunday. In fact, the only thing on the line of any note is New England's attempt to join San Francisco as the only franchises in NFL history with four 14-win seasons. But we doubt Belichick & Co. care much about that bit of trivia.
The Patriots, as you probably imagine, dominate the all-important passing game comparisons (No. 3 in Passing Yards Per Attempt to Miami’s No. 22; No. 3 in Passer Rating Differential to Miami’s No. 20). New England is also the far more efficient team, especially on offense, ranking No. 1 in Scoreability to Miami’s pathetic 31st ranking.
Like everybody else, we’re not sure, however, how much a banged-up Tom Brady is going to play in this game. Assuming that backup Brian Hoyer plays at least a half, we like the Dolphins’ No. 3-ranked Defensive Hogs to keep the Patriots’ No. 1 scoring offense in check. But Miami is so bad offensively we can’t see them being the team to end New England’s 26-game regular season home winning streak in games started by Brady.
New England 21, Miami 17
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