Our Naughty Nurse tackles 2011 for CHFF Insiders
Cold, Hard Football Facts for April 25, 2011

By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts man in need of a nursemaid

We've been enamored with much of the information brought to us by our pals from Spreadapedia.com, the online point-spread database. We're working with them to fine tune some material that will help us, and especially help CHFF Insiders, during the 2012 season.

For the time being, we're going to take a few peeks back at the 2011 season (and back over a longer expanse of history) to see what kind of trends develop.

Below is a basic overview of some of the top-level numbers for each team last season.

ONE - The Wise Guys are pretty good. With very few exceptions, most teams fell within a very narrow record against the spread. Twenty of 32 teams were just one game away from a .500 record ATS. Put another way, 20 of 32 teams were between 9-7 or 7-9 ATS, or an equivalent thereof given the impact of ties ATS. So the wise guys consistently walked a fine line between who would cover and who would not. It's impressive, actually. We're working on some studies here in the off-season that will help us better find those times when the number issued by Vegas really doesn't make sense based upon their typical lines and methods.

TWO - The 49ers were the best bet in football in 2011. Cold, Hard Football Facts Insiders know that statistical proficiency, as measured by our Quality Stats, usually precedes general acceptance of that proficiency among the Pigskin Public. The 49ers, the top surprise team in football, were also the best example of that dynamic in action in 2011. We turned on to them in Week 4, when they were 8.5-point underdogs at Philadelphia.

Football America was still in love with the Eagles at that point after their  "Dream Team" offseason. But it was obvious to us then that San Francisco was much stronger statistically through four games than the public had yet realized. The public never quite fully believed in the 49ers, however. And as a result, San Francisco consistently beat the number, with an NFL-best 12-3-1 record ATS in 2011, according to Spreadapedia. The high-powered Saints, by the way, were not far behind, with a 12-4 record ATS.

THREE - Tampa Bay and Dallas were the worst bets in 2011. The Bucs just wildly failed to meet expectations in 2011. The Pigskin Public couldn't believe what they were seeing, either. And as a result Tampa posted an NFL-worst 4-12 record ATS. Dallas was not far behind, at 5-10-1 ATS. No surprise there. As we noted earlier in the season for CHFF Insiders, Dallas is so popular that they're consistently over-valued by the public. The 2011 season was no exception. Remember, people often bet with their heart and on the outcome they want ... which gives opportunity to find value for those, like the Cold, Hard Football Facts, who do not suffer from the weakness of a human heart.

FOUR - High scores made for exciting football, and bad playoff exits. The 2011 season was filled with a rare dichotomy: teams with exciting offenses and utterly inept defenses that still managed to excel in the win column. The highest-scoring games (both teams) on average were played this year by NFC No. 1 seed Green Bay (57.4 PPG), NFC power New Orleans (55.4), NFC up-and-comer Detroit (53.8), and AFC No. 1 seed New England (53.4).

These four teams shared something else in common, besides high-scoring contests: ugly playoff exits in which not one of their four defenses could make a key stop in the critical moments of the biggest game of the year. Balance still wins football games, even in a bizarre, record-setting year for offenses such as 2011.

We have a whole lot more data to digest and will break it out in bite-sized pieces over the course of the 2012 offseason. Hey, it's less than six months now until the new season gets underway.