Lets
take a quick look at why John Schneider (current GM of the Seahawks and
former personnel analyst for the now world champion GB Packers) might
not be as big a bonehead in shuttling Matt Hasselbeck out the door as
most would have you believe. We all know that judging talent is
sometimes like throwing a beer into the crowd. Sometimes you're the
bigger man and come out ahead, sometime you lose the respect of your
peers and get clobbered. Maybe, just maybe, Schneider knows what he's
doing.
Are
the 'Hawks throwing in the towel before the 2011 campaign begins? In a
winnable division? Check that, in the worst division in football?
First,
MH8. Former probowl QB, former superbowl QB, all around baldy. The
Seahawks are stupid not to have paid their franchise for the last ten
years in favor of Tavaris Jackson, right? Tennessee is
obviously hoping that MH8 has enough juice in the tank to recapture the
glory of his early career in Seattle under MH-The Walrus. The best part
of Matt's career was largely predicated on 3 steps back and hand off to
all world running back Shaun Alexander to carry the load to the tune of
87 touch downs in number 37s best 5 years. Establish the run to set up
the pass; an age old axiom. And Matt was able to ride that to a few
pretty good years (anyone else notice that Seattle's suspect running
game in recent seasons has corresponded with their mediocre
performances?).
The
Titans must feel as though Matt can both drop back three steps and hand
off to all world RB Chris Johnson and set up enough passing offense
that young Jake Locker will be mentored in how to be the NFL QB everyone
thought he would be two years ago (last year, well, not so much as his
accuracy tumbled and his TD to INT ratio skewed to the latter).
Can Matt really be a great mentor to Jake Locker?
Let's
move back to John Schneider. He was that personnel analyst with the
enviable job of not having to think about finding someone to replace
that invincible, game loving, charming, small town boy at the QB
position (I've moved myself back to the nineties here, a carefree time
when all the world only saw the good in super Favre). At the time,
backing up BF4 was the easiest job in football- did these guys ever have
to launder their uniforms? (I'm sure I heard Madden make that same
joke about 40 times watching him and Summerall on Fox). Schneider did
however have to think about the unenviable task of finding someone to
back up Mr. Invincible
*Note-JS
was employed by the Packers from '92-96 and again from 2002-2010 so
there is a bit of a gap in the timeline here. Stay with me though....
**Note:
I know the personnel analyst answers to the GM and probably doesn't
make real big decisions, but Schneider must have been damn good at it,
'cause he's a GM at 38 and you're not.
Who
did Favre 'mentor?' Let's remove the first couple of years of his
starting career, because he wasn't teaching anyone how to do anything
except how to throw across the field to spectacular results, how to
throw across the field with disastrous results, and how to celebrate TDs
running with helmet in hand- boyish exuberance to spare.
1994,
Mark Brunell: Drafted by the Packers in 1993 (5th round) and traded
after his rookie season. Brunell won't make the HOF, but he did lead
the young Jacksonville Jaguars to the AFC championship game in '98 and
'99. He also made 3 probowls.
1995,
Ty Detmer and Jim McMahon. Ty Detmer left the Packers after this year
and became a starter for the Eagles and 49ers. Not bad for 9th round pick.
1996,
Jim McMahon and Doug Pederson. McMahon was just looking good in shades
and while Pederson didn't go on to light up the league, he did start
for the Eagles and Browns in '99 and '00.
1997, Steve Bono. A short career, for sure, and he came to Green Bay after flashes of brilliance in KC (a 13-3 record in 1995)
1998, Doug Pederson
1999-2000, Hasselbeck. A 10 yr starter for the Seahawks.
2001-2004. By now, everyone know that Favre could not and would not be injured
enough to keep him from starting every....single... game.... This gave
analysts and casual fans alike much to talk about, while true fans
bemoaned and cheered the throws across the field both to spectacular and
disastrous results. Pederson largely held back up duties during this
time.
2005-2007. He of the championship belt celebration. The arrival of Aaron Rodgers. Fin.
2008, Kellen Clemens with the Jets
2009-2010- Tavaris Jackson
Ok, it hurt me too to think about Favre for that long, but bear with me. There's method to the statistical madness.
We
throw out Jim McMahon because that wonky shoulder and his age meant
that he wasn't going to legitimately going to start again. Lets' also
leave out Jackson, as it remains to be seen if he will succeed. That
leaves seven QBs that were 'mentored' (watched from the sidelines- clean
uniform and clipboard in hand) by Favre- Brunell, Detmer, Pederson,
Bono, Hasselbeck, Rodgers, Clemens. Four of those men went on to be
starters in the NFL (to varying degrees of success, of course). Here's
the math: 4 out of 7 is 57% of the backups during Favre's years did okey
dokey.
Back
to the Seahawks: here are the men who Hasselbeck 'mentored.' The
also-bald Trent Dilfer had already won his ring with the Ravens, but
there is also: David Greene, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye, Jeff Rowe,
Mike Teel, JP Losman, and Charlie 'Definitely not Bald' Whitehurst.
Not
quite the same statistical winning as the old warrior, Favre. Not a
single one of these guys has gone on to win a starting role or revive
their careers by watching Hasselbeck.
So
is John Schneider a fool for reuniting former 2nd round pick Jackson
with his former OC Darrell Bevell? That remains to be seen, of course,
but taking the 57% chance that Jackson learned something while watching
Favre vs the reality that a rookie QB taken in any round in this years
draft is going to get crushed under the weight of work and DEs in the
NFL in such shortened preparatory season makes it a chance worth taking.
As for the Titans, Hasselbeck and Jake Locker? Well, Jake is signed for 4 yrs and $12 million.
Oh,
and for fun- these are some guys that backed up Kerry Collins: Frank
Reich, Jack Trudeau, Kent Graham, Jason Garrett (yes, that one), Jesse
Palmer, Marquis Tuiasosopo, Vince Young. Not too many yellow jackets in
that gang either.
I'm
not saying that Seattle's move is not risky but the reality is that
Hasselbeck has a bad back, bad hips, and is the quarterback of the 2
previous regimes. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are showing true
cajones by taking this chance now in a division that might just send
another 7-9 team to the playoffs.
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