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Fearless NFC breakdown
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 6, 2006
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Consensus pick: Dallas
 With four veteran coaches, a galaxy of big-name stars and a series of bitter, time-honored rivalries, no division will make more fireworks this year than the NFC East.
Certainly, no division offers a more wide-open battle. Like NFC East fans, the Cold, Hard Football Facts trolls were bitterly divided over how the division will play out. In fact, it's the only division in which every team got at least one nod  from the CHFF crew. Barra and Comey see the T.O.-less Eagles rising from the ashes of the 2005 season and returning to their rightful, 21st century place atop the NFC East. With a healthy Donovan McNabb back in charge, it's certainly a reasonable expectation.
Cocco, Doherty and Whalen have put their faith in Eli Manning and the Giants, apparently unaware that Eli continued the grand family tradition last year of failing to put up a point in the playoffs, a 23-0 loss to Carolina. (The Manning family is now 3-for-3 in this department – Archie never even made the playoffs, while Eli and Peyton led the last two offenses to suffer a postseason shutout. Peyton and the Colts failed to score a point against a 9-7 Jets team in the 2002 playoffs.)
The consensus falls on the side of Dallas, however. The Cowboys narrowly missed out on the playoffs last year with an un-Parcellsian 2-3 performance in December and January. They won a shootout with Kansas City and walked into Carolina on Christmas Eve and beat the Panthers. A thorough 35-7 December beating at the hands of the Redskins stands as the signature game of the season, however.
Still, Drew Bledsoe had one of the best seasons of his career with 23 TDs and an 83.7 passer rating – the identical rating he posted in his Super Bowl 1996 season with the Patriots. If T.O. plays instead of pouts and prances, Bledsoe certainly will have more than enough weapons around him – including veteran speedster Terry Glenn, 265-pound tight end Jason Witten (66 catches, 6 TDs in 2005), sure-handed rookie tight end Anthony Fasano and third-year back Julius Jones, who ran for 993 yards last year despite missing three games in October. Even a Bledsoe apologist can't defend a lack of performance with that supporting cast.
Consensus pick: Chicago
 The Monsters of the Midway are back and doing what they do best: mauling opposing offenses. It has been a tradition at least since the pre-Butkus Era season of 1963, when Chicago fielded the greatest pass defense in NFL history – but more on that later this season.
The Bears last year led the entire NFL in scoring defense (12.6 PPG), defensive passer rating (61.2) and yards allowed per pass attempt (5.72). Sure, it helps  when you have the worst quarterback in football to kick around twice a season – Brett Favre tossed 0 TDs and 6 INTs in two games against Chicago last year. But the numbers are impressive still the same. Even more impressive is that the Bears went 10-5 last year in games started by rookie quarterback Kyle Orton, who completed 51.6 percent of his passes for 9 TDs, 13 INTs and brutal 5.1 yards per attempt, worse than the YPA its top-rated defense allowed. The Cold, Hard Football Facts believe that if the Chicago offense faced the Chicago defense, time and space as we know it would end and the defense would win, 21-27. Orton's were not the numbers of a playoff-caliber QB – unless you're playing with the best defense in football. The addition of the always productive Brian Griese gives Chicago a quarterback who can come in and kick-start the offense should oft-injured starter Rex Grossman fail to produce.
Consensus pick: Carolina
 The Cold, Hard Football Facts have a certain fondness for things from Carolina, like that chick Shana (pictured here in all her swimsuit beauty), pulled pork and the Panthers. It's easy to see why: Shana's hot, pulled pork is tasty and the Panthers play tough, efficient, fundamental football, as evidenced by the fact that few teams last year fared so  well in so many Quality Stats.
The defensive-minded Bucs have a chance to make history this season. Since the merger, only the Cowboys have finished in the Top 10 in total defense 10 straight seasons (1970-79). Tampa has a chance to join that elite list with a Top 10 performance this season.
Watch out for New Orleans, according to three of the trolls. The Saints this year have a QB in Drew Brees who has proven he can put up big numbers, a potential game-breaking superstar in running back Reggie Bush and, we hope, no need to deal with a devastating hurricane that turned 2005 into an on- and off-field disaster. Coupled with a generally weak conference, it gives the Saints a puncher's chance at a wild-card berth.
Consensus pick: Seattle
 If a team falls in the NFC West, does it make a sound?
Yes, Seattle represented the NFC in the Super Bowl last year and posted a conference-best 13-3 mark. And, yes, running back Shaun Alexander set the NFL single-season TD record with 28 (27 rushing, 1 receiving).
But the Seahawks did it all against the weakest division in football. Seattle went 6-0 against division foes Arizona, San Francisco and St. Louis, while outscoring  them by an average of 34.3 to 17.7. The conference champs also had the easiest road to the playoffs, with just five games all year against quality opponents – the fewest in all of football.
Seattle did earn respect with its impressive playoff victories over Washington and Carolina, and it is clearly the class of the NFC West – which is kind of like being the skinniest guy at a Cold, Hard Football Facts tailgate. The Seahawks are the only team to earn unanimous selection from the CHFF crew as 2006 division champ, but only Dudley believes it will lead to another Super Bowl appearance, and no "expert" believes Seattle will take the next step and win a championship.
NFC wild card teams (consensus): N.Y. Giants and Tampa Bay
NFC title game (consensus): Carolina over Seattle
Super Bowl (consensus): New England over Carolina
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