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The power of hand
Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 31, 2006
George and Jerry of Seinfeld sitcom fame called the unique power "hand." It was what gave one party in a relationship irrefutable power over the other.
"Hand" is like porn – hard to define, but we know it when we see it.
New England in recent years has been the home of a unique display of "hand." In the relationship of management vs. player, New England management rules with, well, iron hand.
There are two reasons for this phenomenon. One, New England management is cold, calculating and oblivious to the whims of hype, trend or emotion. For that reason, it has the respect of the emotionless arbiter of all things pigskin, the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
Two, New England management carefully picks its spots and knows what battles it can fight – and what battles it can afford to lose. The Adam Vinatieri situation was a perfect example. Here was an absolutely beloved figure among New England football fans. But there's no doubt Vinatieri had slipped below elite level in recent years. Instead of looking at a regional hero and NFL legend, New England management looked at a guy who last kicked a 50-yard field goal in November ... 2002. (And now he's fighting an ankle injury in Indy and may miss the start of the season.)
New England management could afford to fight the Vinatieri battle because it could afford (perhaps) to lose a player who hampered the Patriots' scoring efforts week in and week out by forcing them to move the ball inside the opposing 30 before they had a legitimate shot at points.
The Deion Branch situation represents another example of the power of hand. Branch is undoubtedly New England's No. 1 receiver and a Super Bowl MVP. New England will not be swayed by anything but on-field performance.
And in that respect, battling Branch is a fight New England can afford to lose. Here's why:
New England has won without Branch
Everyone remembers that Branch delivered an MVP performance in Super Bowl XXXIX. But do you remember that he missed seven games that season?
- The Patriots went 6-1 in games without Branch and averaged 26.7 PPG.
- The Patriots went 8-1 in games with Branch and averaged 27.8 PPG.
New England won an NFL-record 21 games in a row from 2003 through 2004. Branch missed five of those games, including the final four victories in the streak.
Mid-tier productivity
This is Deion Branch's average season after four years in the NFL:
- 53 catches, 686 yards, 12.9 yards per catch, 3.5 TDs per season
Branch has scored a total of 14 TDs in his entire career. It's not exactly Jerry Rice or Torry Holt we're talking about here.
Branch is dead to the NFL
New England has Tom Brady
After five years of watching Brady play, the general belief of the Cold, Hard Football Facts is that he could throw the football to tackling dummies on wagon wheels and still pick apart most NFL defenses.
Back in 2001, Brady took over an offense that averaged barely more than 16 points per game in its previous 18 games while being led by a possible future Hall of Famer in Drew Bledsoe.
New England's scoring average skyrocketed by more than 50 percent as soon as Brady took the reigns. Sure, Troy Brown had a monstrous 101-catch season. But the third, fourth and fifth receivers that year were all running backs. Here are New England's pass catchers from 2001:
- Brown – 101 receptions, 1,199 yards, 5 TDs
- David Patten – 51, 749, 4
- Kevin Faulk – 30, 189, 2
- Marc Edwards – 25, 166, 2
- Antowain Smith – 19, 192, 1
- Terry Glenn – 14, 204, 1
- Jermaine Wiggins – 14, 133, 4
- Charles Johnson – 14, 111, 1
- J.R. Redmond – 13, 132, 0
- Patrick Pass – 6, 66, 1
- Rod Rutledge – 5, 35, 0
There were a few other guys on the list who caught passes, but you get the point. Remember, this was a Super Bowl champion offense and Kevin Faulk, Marc Edwards and Antowain Smith caught more passes than all but the top two wideouts.
The list of pass catchers was no more impressive in the 2003 championship season, either. New England's top two wide receivers that year (Branch and Brown) combined for just 97 catches and 1,275 yards.
New England is fairly well-stocked with pass catchers
The Patriots may have no true No. 1 without Branch, but for the first time in the Tom Brady Era, their offense is littered with guys who can catch the ball.
Two New England backs, Faulk and Pass, have already proven to be effective receivers. In fact, Faulk is one of the most effective in the league at catching the ball out of the backfield. Running back Laurence Maroney, the rookie No. 1 draft pick, seems like he might turn into a very effective pass catcher as well.
Rookie tight end David Thomas was the leading receiver last year at Texas, the team that won the national title and boasted the No. 1 passing attack in the NCAA. Garrett Mills, another rookie who projects as a versatile H-back type, is the all-time leading pass catcher among tight ends in NCAA history.
That's on top of two tight ends who've already shown that they can catch the ball at the NFL level, Ben Watson and Daniel Graham. The Patriots also expended a No. 2 draft pick on wideout Chad Jackson, though his potential impact remains in question at this point.
Certainly, New England's offense appears far better equipped to move the ball through the air than it was in its championship seasons of 2001 and 2003.
Branch is out of line
According to various reports, New England management has offered Branch a very generous five-year deal worth up to $31 million, with up to $11 million guaranteed. Branch reportedly wants a five-year deal worth $40 million.
The New England offer is already a very fair one given Branch's contributions to the team during his four years in the league. And based upon his track record – and New England's track record without him – Branch simply doesn't deserve the money he's asking for.
The power of hand
New England management has hand because it knows its players inside and out – better than most fans. The surprising thing is that notoriously fickle New England sports fans are along for the ride. They seem to put far more faith in management than they do in players such as Branch.
Of course, the power of hand is a fickle thing, too. New England management will quickly lose its hand if the offense can't move the ball down the field and its kicker can't convert key field goals in clutch situations.
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