Hold on, junior | Cold Hard Football Facts

Hold on, junior
Cold, Hard Football Facts for May 11, 2006

By Cold, Hard Football Facts senior writer John Dudley

Discipline is one of the important life lessons that most people learn in college. Away from the watchful eye of your parents, you have the freedom to make your own decisions. Choosing to hit the beer bong instead of the books has consequences, however, and those who party more than they study can find themselves leaving school much earlier than they had planned.

Here at the Cold, Hard Football Facts, we still struggle with temptation on a daily basis. Are a few more Buffalo wings gonna hurt anyone? When does excessive alcohol consumption diminish our creativity? Should we start writing or take that third nap?

For underclassmen on the college gridiron, money can be the greatest temptation of all. The allure of a big payday in the NFL is often too hard to resist – even if it's not in their best long-term interest.

Before caving into temptation, these players should heed the lessons of the professor of footballogy, the Cold, Hard Football Facts: Quaterbacks who come out of college early almost always fail in the NFL.

Game experience can't be simulated, and it provides a critical component of player development, especially for quarterbacks. By leaving school early, they miss out on another full year of seasoning. Since 1990, when the NFL draft was opened up to any player who is three years removed from his high school graduation, 14 quarterbacks forfeiting eligibility have been selected in the first round. The success stories have been few.

The latest QB making the leap is Texas junior Vince Young. He turned in an astonishing Rose Bowl performance, willing the Longhorns to a 41-38 victory over USC and delivering a national championship. With his stock soaring, he declared for the draft and was taken by the Titans with the third overall pick.

The wisdom of Young's decision will be borne out in the years to come. He is a rare talent who can blaze his own trail. But the road has largely been rocky for the men who have gone before him.

What follows is a recap of the 13 previous underclassman quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round. A chart of their career statistics can be found here. Be forewarned: Most of this list is as ugly as a five-day bender during finals week.

Andre Ware

(No. 7 overall in 1990)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
14	6	161	83	51.6	1,112	5	8	63.5

After a record-setting career at the University of Houston, Ware languished on the Lions for four years, never starting more than three games in a season. He now serves as a college football analyst for ESPN and a radio broadcaster for the Texans.

Todd Marinovich

(No. 24 overall in 1991)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
8	8	205	104	50.7	1,345	8	9	66.4

Marinovich left USC a year early, but he wasn't able to leave behind his infamous drug problems, which derailed his pro career after just two seasons with the Raiders. Following his most recent arrest last May, when he was found with a bent spoon and a syringe in a public restroom and then fled on a bicycle, he reported his occupation as "unemployed artist." (Attempts to secure a "Marijuanavich masterpiece" for the walls of the CHFF office have been unsuccessful.)

Tommy Maddox

(No. 25 overall in 1992)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
95	36	1,200	686	57.2	8,087	48	54	72.4

As a UCLA sophomore, Maddox made the ill-advised decision to go to the NFL, and his first stint in the league (with the Broncos, Rams and Giants) was a total washout. He returned after a five-year absence, eventually becoming the Steelers' starter and earning Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2002. Now a free agent, he is unsigned for the coming season.

Drew Bledsoe

(No. 1 overall in 1993)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
188	187	6,548	3,749	57.3	43,447	244	198	77.3

Bledsoe is easily the most prolific passer of this group, ranking fifth all-time in attempts and completions and seventh in yards. Departing Washington State as a junior, he became the first early entrant to quarterback his team to a Super Bowl when he guided the Patriots to the title game in his fourth year. He is still going strong as he enters his 14th season and second with the Cowboys.

Rick Mirer

(No. 2 overall in 1993)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
80	68	2,043	1,088	53.3	11,969	50	76	63.5

In his first season out of Notre Dame, Mirer started every game for the Seahawks and was named UPI Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, his attempts (486), completions (274) and yards (2,833) from that campaign all ended up being career highs. Eight of his 12 years in the league were primarily spent as a backup, and he retired prior to last season having never thrown for 300 yards in a game (his best was 282).

Heath Shuler

(No. 3 overall in 1994)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
29	22	593	292	49.2	1,288	15	33	54.3

Like Mirer, Shuler posted his highest totals as a rookie, completing just 45.3 percent of his passes with the Redskins when he could have been flourishing in his senior season at the University of Tennessee. He is now running for congress in North Carolina, having won a Democratic primary last week.

Ryan Leaf

(No. 2 overall in 1998)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
25	21	655	317	48.4	3,666	14	36	50.0

Leaf followed Bledsoe's lead and left Washington State a year early. After four dreadful years with the Chargers and Cowboys, he is now considered the biggest bust in NFL history. Despite a career completion percentage that is the lowest of anyone on this list, he was recently named the quarterbacks coach for West Texas A&M University.

Tim Couch

(No. 1 overall in 1999)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
62	59	1,714	1,025	59.8	11,131	64	67	75.1

As a rookie from the University of Kentucky, Couch started 14 games for the Browns, but his five-year tenure in Cleveland was uninspiring. Having missed the past two seasons with a shoulder injury, he is now attempting a comeback, and the Colts are said to be interested.

Michael Vick

(No. 1 overall in 2001)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
58	51	1,342	726	54.1	9,031	51	39	75.8

Vick was so coveted coming out of Virginia Tech that the Falcons traded up for the right to draft him. He has rewarded them with some spectacular performances over his five seasons, including playoff victories in 2002 and 2004, but Atlanta is hoping that his best is yet to come.

Rex Grossman

(No. 22 overall in 2003)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
8	7	195	105	53.8	1,303	4	6	68.8

Ever since arriving from the University of Florida, Grossman has had trouble staying on the field. Injuries have made him the latest in a long line of shaky Bears quarterbacks, but he enters the 2006 season as the likely starter, assuming he can hold off Brian Griese.

Ben Roethlisberger

(No. 11 overall in 2004)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
27	25	563	364	64.7	5,006	34	20	98.3

Just two years removed from playing at Miami of Ohio, Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl. After guiding the Steelers to four playoff victories last season, including a 21-10 triumph over the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL, his record as a starter is now 27-4.

Alex Smith

(No. 1 overall in 2005)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
9	7	165	84	50.9	875	1	11	40.8

To say that Smith struggled in his first season with the 49ers would be a colossal understatement. From his disastrous starting debut in Week 5 until his first and only touchdown pass in Week 17, he looked like he should have remained at the University of Utah for another year.

Aaron Rodgers

(No. 24 overall in 2005)

Games	Starts	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
3	0	16	9	56.3	65	0	1	39.8

Drafted out of Cal as the Packers' quarterback of the future, Rodgers only got to throw passes in two blowouts. His playing time doesn't figure to increase much in 2006, now that aging gunslinger Brett Favre appears doggedly determined to chase the all-time interception mark.

Of Young's 13 predecessors, just three of them (Bledsoe, Vick and Roethlisberger) have thus far had careers that could be considered above-average. That's a success rate of merely 23 percent.

Blessed with phenomenal ability and a refuse-to-lose mentality, Young could well be one of the exceptions. If not, he will join the growing list of underclassman quarterbacks who regret leaving school early for the tempting riches of the NFL.

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