When you're the worst team in the NFL, it's kind of like being the nerdiest kid in school. Everybody else take turns beating you up.
But once the year mercifully comes to an end, you have the inside track on a fresh start. Finishing with the league's poorest record entitles you to the first pick in the next draft. It's the equivalent of the nerd getting a personal trainer and a stylist. You can substantially upgrade your image.
The Prom King of Pigskin High School, the Cold, Hard Football Facts, suggests that the best way to capitalize on this new-found popularity may be trading down in the draft.
Houston finds itself with that opportunity this weekend.
As an expansion team in 2002, the Texans were the ostracized new kids stumbling to a 4-12 record. They improved their standing over the next two seasons, going 5-11 and then 7-9, but 2005's dismal 2-14 showing returned them to the bottom of the heap. It was back to eating lunch alone.
Less than four months later, the tables have been turned. Holding the top pick has made Houston as popular as the girl who develops big boobs over the summer. The Texans now have many suitors and their phone doesn't stop ringing. Everyone wants Bush.
It is widely assumed that the Texans will stay put and take Bush, but they are keeping their options open. The team continues to show interest in N.C. State defensive end Mario Williams, who would help solidify a woeful defense and might be easier to sign. Houston General Manager Charley Casserly has also said that he will at least listen to offers.
Considering the package that the Texans could receive in return, moving down a spot or two and still getting Williams may be worth some consideration. In the last 16 years, the No. 1 pick (or the player selected with it) has been dealt six times. For the most part, the team trading down has made out well.
Here is a recap of the six trades involving the top pick since 1990. (An asterisk denotes players already in the league who were, or eventually became, part of the compensation.)
1990
Colts trade up for:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Jeff George |
1 (1990) |
1 |
QB |
Illinois |
|
Stacey Simmons |
4 (1990) |
83 |
WR |
Florida |
Falcons trade down and obtain:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Andre Rison* |
1 (1989) |
22 |
WR |
Michigan State |
|
Chris Hinton* |
1 (1983) |
4 |
T |
Northwestern |
|
Reggie Redding |
5 (1990) |
121 |
T |
Fullerton State |
|
Mike Pritchard |
1 (1991) |
13 |
WR |
Colorado |
George was merely adequate during his four seasons with Indy. Ironically, two of his best years came in Atlanta, but he never made a Pro Bowl. Simmons lasted only one season and registered just four catches.
Advantage: team trading down (Falcons)
1991
Cowboys trade up for:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Russell Maryland |
1 (1991) |
1 |
DT |
Miami |
Patriots trade down and obtain:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Pat Harlow |
1 (1991) |
11 |
T |
USC |
|
Jerome Henderson |
2 (1991) |
41 |
CB |
Clemson |
|
Ron Francis* |
2 (1987) |
39 |
CB |
Baylor |
|
David Howard* |
3 (1984s) |
67 |
LB |
Long Beach St. |
|
Eugene Lockhart* |
6 (1984) |
152 |
LB |
Houston |
Maryland was solid yet unspectacular. He won three Super Bowls with Dallas, starting in two of them, but was named to only one Pro Bowl.
Harlow started every game at right tackle for his first four seasons with New England. Henderson got nine starts and recorded five interceptions over two years, while Francis never made the team. Howard and Lockhart were capable linebackers, but each played just two more seasons in the league.
Advantage: debatable
1995
Bengals trade up for:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Ki-Jana Carter |
1 (1995) |
1 |
RB |
Penn State |
Panthers trade down and obtain:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Kerry Collins |
1 (1995) |
5 |
QB |
Penn State |
|
Shawn King |
2 (1995) |
36 |
DE |
NE Louisiana |
Carter was the most recent running back drafted No. 1 overall, and he had a star-crossed career. In his first preseason game, he tore the ACL in his left knee and missed the entire year. His ongoing injury problems limited him to very modest stats.
Collins stepped in as the starter and guided Carolina to the NFC championship game in his second season. King was a bust, starting just two games in his three years with the Panthers.
Advantage: team trading down (Panthers)
1997
Rams trade up for:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Orlando Pace |
1 (1997) |
1 |
T |
Ohio State |
Jets trade down and obtain:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
James Farrior |
1 (1997) |
8 |
LB |
Virginia |
|
Dedric Ward |
3 (1997) |
88 |
WR |
Northern Iowa |
|
Terry Day |
4 (1997) |
102 |
DE |
Mississippi State |
|
Leon Johnson |
4 (1997) |
104 |
RB |
North Carolina |
|
Chuck Clements |
6 (1997) |
191 |
QB |
Houston |
|
Jason Ferguson |
7 (1997) |
229 |
DT |
Georgia |
Pace has been a stalwart left tackle for St. Louis, starting 131 games at that pivotal position over his nine seasons. He has played in two Super Bowls and the last seven Pro Bowls.
Farrior didn't become a great linebacker until his fifth year, when he recorded 142 tackles and then promptly joined Pittsburgh as a free agent. Ward and Johnson were limited offensive contributors. Ferguson lasted the longest in New York, starting 83 games over seven seasons.
Advantage: team trading up (Rams)
2001
Falcons trade up for:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Michael Vick |
1 (2001) |
1 |
QB |
Virginia Tech |
Chargers trade down and obtain:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
LaDainian Tomlinson |
1 (2001) |
5 |
RB |
TCU |
|
Tim Dwight* |
4 (1998) |
114 |
WR |
Iowa |
|
Tay Cody |
3 (2001) |
67 |
RB |
Florida State |
|
Reche Caldwell |
2 (2002) |
48 |
WR |
Florida |
Vick is certainly an exciting player, especially when he scrambles, and his three Pro Bowls are a testament to his tremendous popularity. His passing numbers, however, are very pedestrian.
Tomlinson, who rushed for 1,645 yards and caught 100 passes in the same season (2003), is the game's best all-around running back. Dwight was a productive receiver and returner during his four years in San Diego, scoring touchdowns on rushes, receptions, a punt return and a kick return. Cody started 11 games as a rookie but lasted just two more seasons. Caldwell didn't live up to expectations and recently signed with New England.
Advantage: team trading down (Chargers)
2004
Giants trade up for:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Eli Manning |
1 (2004) |
1 |
QB |
Mississippi |
Chargers trade down and obtain:
|
Player |
Round (Year) |
Overall |
Pos. |
School |
|
Philip Rivers |
1 (2004) |
4 |
QB |
N.C. State |
|
Nate Kaeding |
3 (2004) |
65 |
K |
Iowa |
|
Shawne Merriman |
1 (2005) |
12 |
LB |
Maryland |
|
Roman Oben* |
3 (1996) |
66 |
T |
Louisville |
Manning showed improvement in his first full year as a starter, helping the Giants win their division last year. But he performed poorly in his playoff debut, a 23-0 loss to Carolina (113 yards, 3 INTs).
Rivers has mostly watched for two years, but San Diego had enough confidence in him to let Pro Bowler Drew Brees leave via free agency. Kaeding has averaged 113 points in his first two seasons. Merriman recorded 10 sacks and was named Defensive Rookie of the Year. Oben had started 24 consecutive games at left tackle before a foot injury sidelined him halfway through last season.
Advantage: team trading down (Chargers)
In general, leveraging the first overall selection for a combination of players and/or picks has been a beneficial proposition. The keys are getting maximum value in return and making good use of your added selections.
As for the Texans, no one would fault them for doing the expected and drafting Bush. He is unquestionably an electric player. Trading down, however, would allow Houston to upgrade multiple positions.
It may seem like an unpopular move now, but in a few years, the Texans could grade out at the top of the class.
