Who's going to get drafted in the first round next Saturday?

           

The "pundits" and mock drafts tell us one thing – and we know that what they tell us will be wrong.

           

History provides a better and more consistent guide.

           

Here, for example, is a look at how often each position has been selected in the first round of the past 10 drafts (1996-2005).

 

Position	No. 1 Picks
Wide receiver	45
Defensive end	43
Cornerback	41
Tackle	34
Linebacker	31
Running back	29
Defensive tackle	25
Quarterback	24
Tight end	13
Safety	12
Guard	10
Center	3
Kicker	1

 

This simple list tells us more about modern pro football than a lifetime of pontification from the draft "pundits." In fact, this little history lesson does more than just tell us who the top selections may be on draft day; it tells us quite a bit about the nature of the pro game and what coaches and general managers value on the football field. Here are some of the lessons we can glean from this list:

 

Notice something about the four most frequently drafted positions? They're the players who battle on islands on the edge of the field: wide receivers vs. cornerbacks and defensive ends vs. offensive tackles. These battles are the ones that pro football management worries about most and feels most impacts their chances of success. Therefore, these are the positions they draft most often in the first round.

 

We discussed this in great detail before the 2005 draft.

 

While the true football aficionado relishes interior line play and the reassuring impact of a hard-hitting safety, NFL management does not hold these positions in the same esteem. If management did covet these positions, it only stands to reason that they'd devote more first-round draft picks to them. But safeties, guards and centers are the least frequently selected first-round positional players.

 

We were surprised to find that wideouts have been the most frequently selected No. 1 draft picks over the past 10 years. One reason we're surprised is because selecting wide receivers has been a hit-or-miss proposition. The first round of the 1996 draft, for example, was a certified wide receiver bonanza, yielding Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Eddie Kennison, Marvin Harrison and Eric Moulds. The first-round of the 1997 draft was a certified bust, yielding Ike Hilliard, Yatil Green, Reidel Anthony and the immortal Rae Carruth, who's currently serving 18 to 24.

 

Still, coaches and GMs seem unable to resist the allure of a speedy wide receiver on Day One of the draft.

 

The upcoming draft is alleged to be a poor one for wide receivers and a strong one for tight ends. But history tell us that even under these circumstances, as many wideouts as tight ends will be selected in the first round. It will be interesting to see if management teams next Saturday can resist the consistent allure of a first-round wide receiver.

 

Each year, more than half the fans in football lament the play of their No. 1 quarterback – assuming they even have one.

 

But on draft day, teams are unwilling to pull the trigger on a gunslinger. Just 24 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round of the past 10 drafts (and just 19 in the 10 years before that, 1986-95). Yes, it's a sizable number relative to, say, wide receiver when you consider that each team can field just one QB at a time, but can field two to four wide receivers.

 

But it's a surprisingly small number when you consider that quarterback is the most important position on the field and that so many teams always seem in need of one. Clearly, there have been far more than 24 teams over the past 10 years that needed an upgrade at QB. There are, on average, probably 10 to 12 teams each year looking to improve at the position.

 

But GMs have good reason to be gun-shy: Big-time QB prospects selected in the first round often fail to become big-time pros, while Pro Bowl quarterbacks are often found in later rounds.

 

For every first-round success at quarterback over the past 10 years (Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger, among others), there has been a big-time bust (Joey Harrington, Jim Druckenmiller, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Tim Couch, among others).

 

First-round quarterbacks, in other words, are a high-risk proposition – especially when you consider the money involved. First-round QBs always demand and get more than players at any other position and more than they're worth. So not only are first-round QBs high-risk, they represent poor value, too.

 

Some of the most successful quarterbacks over the same period, meanwhile, have been Matt Hasselbeck (6th round, 1998), Marc Bulger (6th round, 2000) and Tom Brady (6th round, 2000).

 

The most visible rookie quarterback in 2005 was Kyle Orton. The fourth-round pick hardly lit up the league, but he went 10-5 in 15 starts and helped guide Chicago to a NFC North title. First-rounders Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers and Jason Campbell barely stepped on the field.

 

Loyal readers of Cold, Hard Football Facts.com know that those folks charged with dishing out individual honors and awards don't even know that defense exists. The Pro Football Hall of Fame is overwhelmed by offensive players. Major individual honors such as the NFL MVP Award or college football's Heisman Trophy almost always go to offensive performers.

 

But No. 1 draft picks show no such bias. Over the past 10 years, 158 first-round draft picks have been offensive players and 152 picks have been defensive players – pretty much a statistical dead heat.

 

The Raiders became the first team in decades to expend a first-round pick on a kicker when they took Sebastian Janikowski with the 17th selection in 2000.

 

Janikowski has hit 78.4 percent of the field goals in his career and 62.7 percent from 40 yards and beyond – about what you'd expect from your average 6th-round-pick journeyman kicker. Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, expected by many to become just the second kicking specialist to enter the Pro Football Hall of Fame, wasn't even drafted. In the realm of value, Janikowski is one of the worst picks in football history.

 

Among the players Oakland bypassed in 2000 were Pro Bowl running back and single-season TD record holder Shaun Alexander, Pro Bowl linebacker and perennial tackle leader Keith Bulluck and Pro Bowl quarterback and three-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady.

 

The Raiders are 46-50 since the 2000 draft.

 

New Orleans was the last team before Oakland to select a kicker in the first round when they took Texas punter-kicker Russell Erxleben with the 11th overall selection. The Saints must have been mesmerized by his NCAA record 67-yard field goal, four yards longer than the NFL record.

 

But Erxleben's legacy should have been enough to discourage any team from taking a kicker No. 1 ever again. Erxleben barely played after his rookie year and was out of football by 1982. He was also sentenced to federal prison in 2000, convicted of mail fraud and securities fraud. And the Saints, of course, are historically the worst franchise in football, with just one postseason victory to their credit in 39 NFL seasons.

 

Like we said, Davis is a tool.