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"King of Props" offers his Super Bowl play
Cold, Hard Football Facts for February 3, 2006
John Dudley, our senior writer and resident gambling guru, offers Cold, Hard Football Facts.com readers the following recommendation for a proposition wager on the Super Bowl. He's known as the "King of Props" in the betting community, and his handicapping analysis can be found at LasVegasSportsline.com. Additional prop plays are available through the link at the bottom.
Prop Perspective
It has been a blistering run for Dudley's proposition plays, which have gone 20-4 down the stretch, including 3-0 in the conference championship games. As the Steelers and Seahawks get ready to square off in Super Bowl XL, he looks to continue the hot streak.
Many props are based on averages. During the regular season, Pittsburgh punter Chris Gardocki averaged 41.8 yards and Seattle punter Tom Rouen averaged 41.6. The proposition bet for length of the game's first punt has therefore been set at over/under 41½ yards.
What is not taken into consideration, however, is that some punts are "pooched" – intentionally kicked short because of field position. These efforts bring down an average considerably. Both of these punters are capable of booming the ball when they try for maximum distance, having easily topped 60 yards on individual punts this season.
At the start of the Super Bowl, there is often a feeling-out process. In last year's game, for instance, the Patriots and Eagles traded punts throughout the early going, and the first six of them traveled at least 44 yards. In the climate-controlled dome of Ford Field, we expect the ball to be carrying just as well.
Dudley's recommended free prop play is thus:
Over 41½ yards for first punt of the game
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