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The Monday Morning Hangover
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 23, 2006
This week's Monday Morning Hangover was pieced together while shaking off the effects of too much Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale, consumed from a fresh new keg provided for the Cold, Hard Football Facts.com cardboard-box world headquarters by the good folks at Sierra Nevada.
Of course, beer is nothing but a lonely little liquid unless paired with smoked, spiced, salted or cured meat. So we consumed copious amounts of Celebration Ale while munching on big chunks of meat from our smoked sausage football. That's right, a smoked sausage football. 
Cowher heeds the Cold, Hard Football Facts
The phone rang early Sunday evening at the cardboard-box world headquarters while we were pounding pints of frothy ale. It was a call from a Steelers fan in Licking County, Ohio:
"You guys nailed it with your analysis of Cowher," said the caller. "It was like he read your articles about him and realized that you were right."
Yes, that was a pretty cogent piece we wrote back in September (" Cowher's formula for failure"). In fact, it was the greatest single piece of NFL analysis offered anywhere in the seedy underworld of online pigskin "punditry" this season. Oh, sure, it's not quite as prophetic as calling Peyton Manning the Picasso of Choke Artists, which we did in 2003, two years before everyone else hopped on that bandwagon, and again at the start of the 2005 season when we lamented the scourge of Spinal Manningitis. But it was pretty good just the same.
The gist of the piece was this: Cowher's myopic devotion to "old school" football created teams with insufficiencies in its passing game – not just at quarterback, but in the overall passing game. When the perennially playoff-bound Steelers faced quality defenses in the postseason and could not run the ball, they never had a passing game good enough to fill the gap. The pattern repeated itself in all nine of Pittsburgh's previous Cowher Era playoff appearances.
We doubt Cowher is taking coaching advice from the Cold, Hard Football Facts. But it certainly seems he took the playoff history we highlighted into account this season. The Steelers could barely run the ball in the playoffs this year. In fact, they never really threatened to "establish the run" in any of their three playoff victories.
The results speak for themselves. The results also help prove that the "establish the run" strategy is the biggest piece of nonsense in NFL playoff football.
There's a very good chance that NFL "analyst" and former Steelers running back Merrill Hoge will go on TV about 22 times over the next two weeks and talk about how Pittsburgh or Seattle needs to "establish the run" in the Super Bowl (and the factless black-and-gold pom-pom waving Hoge will most certainly side with the Steelers). When he does discuss the need to "establish the run," just change the channel. We'll have more about why in our run-up to the big game.
This year has simply provided further proof that the "establish the run" philosophy has all the contemporary legitimacy of Marxist theory. The Steelers have run the ball 109 times for just 346 yards (3.2 YPC) in their three playoff games. Their running production declined each game:
Cincinnati – 34 attempts for 144 yards (4.2 YPC)
Indy – 42 attempts for 112 yards (2.7 YPC)
Denver – 33 attempts for 90 yards (2.7 YPC)
Of course, Pittsburgh's most dominating victory, Sunday's 34-17 win over Denver, was the one in which it ran the ball the fewest times and for the fewest yards.
Roethlisberger makes history in Pittsburgh
One reason for Cowher's conversion is the fact that he finally has a formidable player running the passing game. Ben Roethlisberger has been in complete command of the Pittsburgh offense and has been nothing short of brilliant when passing the ball. In fact, if the Steelers beat Seattle in Super Bowl XL, this will likely be the greatest quarterbacking performance in Pittsburgh playoff history.
The game's top winner
The first two losses of Roethlisberger's career were to the two-time Super Bowl champion Patriots, including once in the 2004-05 AFC title game. He missed almost the entire month of November this year and then lost his first two games upon returning to play, against two playoff teams (Indy and Cincy). He and the Steelers made amends with victories over both teams in postseason rematches.
That's it. The guy has won every other game he's played in the NFL and now stands at 26-4 in nearly two full seasons, giving him the best winning percentage among starting quarterbacks in the NFL (.867). Tom Brady is No. 2 (68-20, .773).
Recent history kind to Super Bowl first-timers
Seattle is making its very first Super Bowl appearance, which prompted a reader named Michael Daly to e-mail late Sunday to say that there's "an interesting historical trend that seems to favor Seattle in Superbowl XL."
He says that in the last few years, upstart franchises and first-time champions have generally got the better of traditional or successful NFL powers.
In 1997, Denver won its first Super Bowl title by knocking off defending champion and traditional power Green Bay.
In 1999, the St. Louis Rams won the first championship in franchise history since the L.A. Rams captured the NFL title in 1951 (though the 1999 Rams did beat a Super Bowl-less Tennessee/Houston franchise).
In 2000, the Baltimore Ravens beat the N.Y. Giants. It was the first championship in Baltimore since the Colts won Super Bowl V and the first for the franchise since the Cleveland Browns won the 1964 NFL title. (Remember, the Ravens were the Cleveland Browns before moving the Baltimore.)
In 2001, New England won its first Super Bowl championship by beating the heavily favored (and 1999 Super Bowl-champion) Rams.
In 2002, Tampa Bay won the first championship in franchise history during its first Super Bowl appearance with a victory over the Oakland Raiders, a franchise with three Lombardi Trophies in its hardware case.
Seattle is the 10th straight team that has never won a Super Bowl to get a shot in the big game:
Super Bowl XXXI – New England (lost)
Super Bowl XXXII – Denver (won)
Super Bowl XXXIII – Atlanta (lost)
Super Bowl XXXIV – St. Louis (won)
Super Bowl XXXV – Baltimore (won)
Super Bowl XXXVI – New England (won)
Super Bowl XXXVII – Tampa Bay (won)
Super Bowl XXXVIII – Carolina (lost)
Super Bowl XXXIX – Philadelphia (lost)
Super Bowl XL – Seattle (TBD)
Super Bowl nobodies
There are three franchises that have never appeared in an NFL championship game of any kind: New Orleans, Jacksonville and Houston. Jacksonville joined the NFL in 1994. Houston joined the NFL in 2002. New Orleans joined the NFL in 1967, the second season of the Super Bowl Era.
The list of franchises that have never made a Super Bowl includes those three teams along with Arizona, Cleveland and Detroit. All three are longtime NFL franchises.
Arizona was an original NFL franchise in 1920, joining the league as the Chicago Cardinals. They played in NFL title games in 1947 and 1948, winning the first game and losing the second. That's it. One title and two title-game appearances in 86 seasons of pro football.
Detroit joined the NFL in 1930 and appeared in five pre-Super Bowl NFL title games: 1935, 1952, 1953, 1954 and 1957. The Lions won all but the 1954 title game.
Cleveland joined the NFL in 1950 after winning four straight championships in the All America Football Conference (1946-49), a rival pro football league. The Browns also won NFL championships in 1950, 1954, 1955 and 1964. They lost the NFL championship game in 1951, 1952, 1953, 1957 and 1965. The Browns of 1946 to 1957 stand as the greatest dynasty in pro football history.
Get your Steelers gear here
Remember the bad old days, when you actually had to go to K-Mart three days after the game to get your team's championship gear? Well, just one hour after the AFC championship game had concluded, members of the Pittsburgh Steelers mailing list had received this e-mail hawking title-game gear.
No easy way out
Pittsburgh's three playoff opponents so far went 38-10 in the 2005 regular season. Seattle went 13-3. So, if Pittsburgh beats Seattle, its four playoff opponents would have posted a combined regular-season record of 51-13 (.797).
Assuming the Steelers win Super Bowl XL, you can easily argue that they faced a much tougher schedule than either the 2004 Patriots or 1990 Giants:
- The 1990 Giants and 2004 Patriots each had first-round byes and faced just three postseason opponents.
- The 2005 Steelers played a first-round game and will face their fourth postseason opponent in the Super Bowl.
- The 1990 Giants and 2004 Patriots each played one game at home and one game on the road before reaching the Super Bowl.
- The 2005 Steelers played three games on the road before reaching the Super Bowl.
- The 1990 Giants beat the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds in the playoffs and the AFC's No. 1 seed in the Super Bowl.
- The 2004 Patriots beat the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds in the playoffs and the NFC's No. 1 seed in the Super Bowl.
- The 2005 Steelers beat the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the playoffs and now face the NFC's No. 1 seed in the Super Bowl.
Delhomme's no longer The Man
"Is it possible to have your head up your butt, then not have your head up your butt, then have your head up your butt again? Kudos for your correction regarding Jake Delhomme and his postseason INT percentage ... but it's time to do the math again. It's the 4th quarter Sunday night and Jake is doing his best to add to his 3-INT performance."
Hey, Jill, cut as a little slack here. We were still drinking during the 4th quarter last night.
She does have a point, though.
We declared Delhomme the best playoff quarterback in football last week. In the immortal words of the Boston Globe's Ron Borges, we were "right at the time."
Well, we're no longer correct today, not after Delhomme's dreadful performance against Seattle on Sunday:
15 for 35, 196 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 34.9 passer rating.
His career postseason line now looks like this:
113 for 192 (58.9 percent), 1,692 yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 96.1 rating
He's still good enough to place No. 2 on the all-time postseason passer rating list, behind only Bart Starr (104.8) and right ahead of No. 3 Joe Montana (95.6). That's pretty damn good company.
(Roethlisberger has a career postseason passer rating of 97.6. It would be good enough for No. 2 on the all-time list. But with just 127 postseason pass attempts, he has yet to reach the 150 attempts required by the NFL statisticians for inclusion in the playoff record books).
Delhomme's 5-2 postseason record stands at No. 3 on the list of active quarterbacks behind Tom Brady (10-1) and Roethlisberger (4-1).
Delhomme's 2.6 percent postseason INT rate drops him well off the list of the all-time best in this all-important category and moves Brady (1.36 percent) and Starr (1.41 percent) back up to the top positions.
Our questions have been answered
PITTSBURGH: Can the Steelers win if they don't run the ball well?
Yes, they can, finally – thanks to the play of Roethlisberger, who's the first quarterback in NFL history to play in conference championship games in each of his first two years in the league and is now the second-youngest quarterback ever to appear in a Super Bowl, behind only Dan Marino.
DENVER: Can the Broncos win without a major advantage in turnovers?
No. The Broncos beat the Patriots 27-13 in the divisional round when they were +4 in turnover margin. They lost 34-17 to Pittsburgh when they were -4 in turnover margin.
CAROLINA: Is Carolina the best big-game team in football?
No. The Panthers had been impressive in the postseason under John Fox. Delhomme and wide receiver Steve Smith had set all kinds of postseason records. But Carolina ran into a buzzsaw in Seattle and its reputation as a big-time playoff team was sliced into a million tiny pieces.
SEATTLE: Is Shaun Alexander the Peyton Manning of postseason running backs?
No. Alexander had an MVP-worthy game yesterday against Carolina's tough defense. He picked up 132 yards on 34 carries (3.9 YPC), scored 2 TDs and made amends for what had been an underachieving postseason career. Before yesterday, he had rushed for just 95 yards and 3 TDs on 41 carries in three postseason starts.
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