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Contenders with question marks
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 22, 2006
We address one big question facing each final four Super Bowl contender here in our take on the conference championship games – filled, as always, with Cold, Hard Football Facts.
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Pittsburgh (13-5) at Denver (14-3)
Key numbers:
- Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is 25-4 as a starting quarterback and 13-1 in road games.
- Denver is 11-0 in its last 11 home games.
- Pittsburgh is 1-4 in AFC title games under Bill Cowher.
- Home teams are 8-7 in the AFC title game since the NFL went to the six-playoff-teams-per-conference format in 1990.
- Five AFC No. 2 seeds have made the Super Bowl (since 1990). Denver is a No. 2 seed.
- Zero No. 5 or No. 6 seeds have made the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is a No. 6 seed.
The Big Question
PITTSBURGH: Can the Steelers win if they don't run the ball well?
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: We touched on this topic in greater detail yesterday and, of course, we took a long hard look at this phenomenon early this season. Suffice it to say, the Steelers averaged just 2.7 yards per carry last week (42 attempts, 112 yards) against a questionable Indy run defense. They  were able to pound the ball away in the second half (29 rush attempts, 5 pass attempts) despite limited success only because they sported a 14-3 halftime lead and 21-3 third-quarter lead.
Now Pittsburgh faces a Denver team that boasted the second-best run defense in football this year (85.2 YPG). Roethlisberger has been phenomenal leading the Steelers and his league-best record speaks for itself. Two of his four career losses came against the two-time champion Patriots and the others came in back-to-back weeks this season against high-powered Colts and Bengals teams. Not so coincidentally, perhaps, those were Roethlisberger's first two games back after missing almost all of November with a knee injury. Other than that, his Steelers teams have been virtually unbeatable at home or on the road.
But this may be the day when he's finally asked to put the team on his back. The closest he's come to carrying his team to victory was in this year's 20-19 win over Baltimore. Roethlisberger completed 18 of 30 passes for 177 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT – not exactly eye-popping numbers. Only once in his career has he attempted more than 30 passes in a game. He completed 29 of 41 passes for a career-high 3 TDs and 386 yards in this year's 38-31 loss to Cincinnati. His three INTs were one of the main reasons Pittsburgh lost.
Another big question for Pittsburgh is the play of Jerome Bettis. Everybody loves The Bus and he's a sentimental favorite to win the Super Bowl. Hey, we love him, too: He's a Notre Dame boy, one of the leading rushers in NFL history, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, a fun personality and a great ambassador for the game.
But the ice-water-filled heart of the Cold, Hard Football Facts is not so impressed. Put most simply, Bettis is not a big-game player. He never has been. The fumble at the end of the Indy game Sunday was an embarrassing rookie mistake that should have cost Pittsburgh a victory. Players are taught in Pop Warner football to wrap two arms around the football, especially late in the game when protecting a lead. But with a guarantee of victory just a few yards away, Bettis charged wildly into a mass of angry humanity and did nothing to protect the football. In fact, he didn't even squeeze the ball between one arm and his body, let alone two. The unprotected football popped out like a champagne cork when he took his first hit. Bettis got a free pass this week because Pittsburgh held on to win. But it was a mistake a Hall of Fame performer should not make.
The truth is that Bettis has never impressed anyone in the playoffs. In nine postseason starts, he's picked up 588 yards on 166 carries (3.5 YPC) and scored eight touchdowns. The Bus's best playoff game came back in 1997, when he rushed for 105 yards on 23 carries and scored 1 TD. Yes, he's a Hall of Fame back, but he has underperformed in the playoffs. The Steelers may need more from him (and from leading rusher Willie Parker) if they are to win today.
The Big Question
DENVER: Can the Broncos win without a major advantage in turnovers?
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Denver was impressive last week, bringing an end to New England's record-setting 10-game playoff win streak with a 27-13 victory.
 But the elation that victory brought to Denver has masked a serious concern: The Broncos were manhandled by New England on both sides of the ball. The vaunted Denver ground game picked up just 96 yards on 32 attempts, and the offense overall averaged just 4.8 yards per play. New England averaged 7.4 yards per play and outgained Denver by nearly 50 percent (420 yards to 286).
Turnovers mean everything in football, especially in the postseason. But you can't bank on being +4 in the turnover battle each and every week. If Denver plays the way it did last weekend, and ends up even in the turnover battle, it won't be enough to win.
The outcome
Pittsburgh has been more impressive in its two road victories over Cincy and Indy than Denver was in its lone home victory over New England. Sure, a No. 6 seed has never reached the Super Bowl, but there's no law against it, either – especially when the No. 6 seed is playing better than the No. 2 seed. We're gambling that this is the game in which fortune turns for Cowher, Bettis and Pittsburgh's post-Terry Bradshaw postseason quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh 20, Denver 16
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Carolina (13-5) at Seattle (14-3)
Key numbers:
- Carolina is 4-0 in road playoff games under John Fox.
- Seattle was 3-1 in the first four playoff games in franchise history (1983 and 1984); it's 1-6 since.
The Big Question
CAROLINA: Is Carolina the best big-game team in football?
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Panthers are the anti-Colts. They don't put up big numbers in the regular season (36-28 under John Fox). They don't get a lot of media hype. They don't  send a lot of guys to the Pro Bowl (seven total over the past four seasons).
But put them in the playoffs and they're virtually unbeatable (5-1 under Fox), even on the road (4-0), and their key players – Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith most notably – step it up considerably.
Delhomme is quickly becoming the Ken Stabler of his generation. He boasts a 5-1 mark in the postseason, second only to Tom Brady (the only QB to whom he's lost in the playoffs) among active quarterbacks. Like Stabler, Delhomme has not exactly impressed people in the regular season and has at times shown a penchant for INTs. But in the playoffs, he's been nothing short of spectacular, especially when teaming up with Smith, much the way that Stabler did with wideouts Cliff Branch and Fred Biletnikoff. As we noted early this week, Delhomme is No. 1 all-time in two key postseason categories: passer rating and interception rate (an all-important but underappreciated statistic).
The Big Question
SEATTLE: Is Shaun Alexander the Peyton Manning of postseason running backs?
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Yes, Alexander suffered a concussion last weekend against Washington. But even at the start of the game, he looked like a shadow of his regular-season self.  He ran tentatively and picked up just 9 yards on six carries. His replacement, Maurice Morris, and fullback Mack Strong certainly had no problem winding their way through the Washington defense. The two combined for 89 yards on 21 carries (4.2 YPC).
In two-plus career playoff games, Alexander has generated just 94 yards on 41 carries (2.3 YPC). That's far below the standards he's set in the regular season, where he's been among the most productive backs in football history. Yes, he has three postseason TDs, but all three came in his very first playoff game, a 33-27 loss to Green Bay in 2003. This year, Alexander earned NFL MVP honors and set a league record with 28 touchdowns.
If Seattle loses to a very dangerous Carolina team today, and Alexander does not perform up to his record-setting, regular-season standards, we'll have to start considering him the Peyton Manning of postseason running backs: a guy who puts up big numbers – even record-setting numbers – in October and November, but then routinely comes up short in the playoffs.
Outcome
We love this Carolina team. They are everything you want in a playoff team: experienced, fearless, solid on both sides of the ball, well-coached and, most importantly, successful. Seattle, for its part, was handed the NFC's No. 1 seed by virtue of the easiest schedule of any playoff team. The Panthers have proven they can beat anybody anywhere. They shut down one of the most explosive offenses in football with a 23-0 win at the N.Y. Giants in the wild-card round (the Giants ranked No. 3 in scoring offense, with 26.4 PPG). They lit up the NFL's best defense with a 29-21 win at Chicago in the divisional round (the Bears ranked No. 1 in scoring defense, with 12.6 PPG). They'll win at Seattle, too.
Carolina 27, Seattle 21
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