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Blame the dome
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 17, 2006
Yes, we’re talking about the RCA Dome. It’s a big source of the Colts' problems and their spectacularly spineless play in the postseason.
Why? Well, dome teams typically suck in the postseason. Dome teams are weak. They can’t handle the elements. Dome-team management generally attempts (key word: attempts) to build clubs that are suited to play best in perfect indoor conditions. They rarely succeed. But they almost always succeed at creating teams incapable of slugging it out in a postseason street fight. Quick: Name the “tough” dome teams in history? There are none.
Domes create two immediate handicaps:
- No matter what kind of efforts management makes to build a "dome-friendly" team, the schedule makers still rudely insist that teams play half their games elsewhere.
- And even when you get to play in a dome, the notion of it being an advantage is complete bullshit.
The “pundits” argue that the “fast track” of a dome is a big advantage. We have to listen to this nonsense every time a dome team has a great season.
This season, we had to put up with the “pundits” all through December. They  insisted this was Indy’s year to win it all because they finally got home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in a year in which the Super Bowl will be played in a dome.
But playing in a dome is not an advantage, folks. It never has been an advantage. We debunked this nonsense earlier this season. In fact, the only team it’s an advantage for is the one that has been playing in a mud pit all year and finally gets to bring its game indoors.
The truth is that domes are no more an advantage than any other home arena. However, they are a clear disadvantage when dome teams go on the road.
Dome teams have appeared in 95 playoff games over the years. And we’re including all current dome teams, along with the old Houston Oilers, who played in the Astrodome, and the Seahawks when they played in the Kingdome.
- Dome teams are 21-14 (.600) at home in the postseason. This record indicates that domes hold no advantage over any other home arena.
- Dome teams are just 15-45 (.250) on the road in the postseason. This record indicates that dome teams have a disadvantage compared with other road teams.
In the entire history of NFL football, dome teams have won just 17 playoff games at home against teams that play outdoors.
And, of course, only one dome team has won a Super Bowl. The 1999 Rams captured lightning in a bottle that season and ended up champions by the narrowest of margins, with a 23-16 win over Tennessee that ended with the Titans inches from the goal line – during Super Bowl XXXIV, played in a dome.
Only two other dome teams have ever even made a Super Bowl: the 1998 Falcons and the 2001 Rams.
Consider the case of the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, they never won a Super Bowl, but they appeared in four and were routinely one of the dominant teams in football … when they played outdoors in frigid, old Metropolitan Stadium. They’ve never been back to the Super Bowl since moving into the Metrodome.
Since moving into a dome, the Vikings are one of those teams that have imploded in spectacular fashion in the postseason.
Remember the 1998 Vikings? They went 15-1 and scored more points than any team in history. But they won just one playoff game, losing the NFC title game at home (to another dome team, the 1998 Falcons, no less).
Remember the 2001 Rams? They were the “Greatest Show on Turf” and, with their record-setting offense and great defense, the “pundits” declared them an unstoppable force. But they lost the Super Bowl … in a dome … to a team that played its home football outdoors.
Indy was the only dome team that even made the playoffs this year. Their quest for an undefeated season ended at home – in a dome. Their short-lived playoff run also ended at home – in a dome.
For the record, only two teams went undefeated (9-0) at home this season. Both play outdoors. Both teams (Seattle and Denver) are hosting conference title games on Sunday.
The handicap that is a dome is obvious when we break the NFL down by divisions. The divisions with no dome teams dominate football. The divisions with multiple dome teams are the weakest in football.
|
Division |
Dome Teams |
SB Appearances |
SB Victories |
|
NFC East |
0 |
18 |
10 |
|
AFC East |
0 |
15 |
6 |
|
AFC West |
0 |
14 |
6 |
|
NFC West |
1 |
8 |
6 |
|
AFC North |
0 |
8 |
5 |
|
NFC North |
2 |
9 |
4 |
|
NFC South |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
AFC South |
2+ |
3 |
1 |
In the case of the AFC South, we included the Houston Oilers, who played in a dome for most of its existence before becoming the Tennessee Titans (who play outdoors and promptly made a Super Bowl appearance).
Right now, there’s a big empty splotch of dirt in Indianapolis across the street from the RCA Dome. It’s the site where a new arena is being built to house, among other activities, Colts football games. If the Colts have any say in the matter, and you would imagine they do, they should do everything in their power to make it an open-air arena. At the very least, it should have a retractable roof that the team keeps open no matter what the weather conditions. It should be closed only for non-football-related events.
Domes DO NOT HELP teams win, folks. If the Colts organization really has hopes of becoming an NFL postseason power, it will play its games outdoors, the way the Football Gods intended.
Random Cold, Hard Football Facts about the Colts
In the seasons during the Manning Era that Indy has made the playoffs (1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005), the team has averaged a remarkable 27.2 points per game in the regular season. No offense has been more prolific for a longer period of time.
It’s a different team in the playoffs, however. The Colts have averaged 21.7 PPG in nine postseason games, 20 percent lower than their regular season average. But even that’s deceptive. Ninety of their 196 playoff points came in two games against Denver in 2003 and 2004.
In the six losses over this period, the 18 points the Indy offense put up Sunday against Pittsburgh was its BEST offensive output. The Colts have scored just 68 points in these six playoff losses, a woeful 11.3 PPG.
Even the lowly Chicago offense, led by a guy (Rex Grossman) making his eighth NFL start, put up 21 points against a good defensive squad from Carolina on Sunday.
At the start of the season, we looked at the big pro football preview magazines. We were amazed that all but one said that, with a good defense, this could finally be the year for Indy. Well, didn’t they know that the offense has been the problem all along?
Apparently not. You would assume that, after today, the “pundits” will no longer question the Indy defense. The offense is the problem.
It has been the problem all along.
Every play, the Colts line up in essentially the same formation. Marvin Harrison is wide right. Reggie Wayne is wide left. James is alone in the backfield. Occasionally, Brandon Stokley is in the slot. Or a tight end, Dallas Clark, may split out. There is no motion other than the quarterback flapping around – often, one might assume, overruling the coach, which we’ve seen him do several times, including at least once Sunday, when it was time to send on the punt team.
Do you think the static nature of the Indy offense, the fact that it lines up in the same formation every single time, makes it a little easier for opposing defenses to prepare for it in the postseason?
We’re guessing "yes." Hey, sometimes the Colts are just too talented for the opposing team to stop. We see this all the time in the college game. Some teams do the same thing year after year but have more talent than the Vanderbilts and Temples of the world, so they can beat them year after year.
In the postseason, the Colts come up against the best of the best. And those defenses seem to be able to decipher what Indy's static, motionless offense is going to do.
The coach
Yes, Tony Dungy is a nice guy. But he needs to take control of that team. If he doesn't, another coach should. When your quarterback waves you off when you want to punt, it’s just not a good sign.
Every team needs one chief and one chief only. Manning is not the chief. He’s “just” the quarterback, and there’s no shame in that.
He suffers right now from the Dan Marino effect – the guy who believes it's all up to him and that if he doesn’t throw the ball, they're not going to win. Well, against top-level competition, one guy can't do it all. Marino never learned the lesson and reached a point where he got to overrule the coach. Well, what good did it do him? None.
Manning has to step back and put the game in the hands of his coach and his teammates. Or, better yet, the coach has to TAKE control out of Manning’s hands. Manning can then just let his talent carry him to do HIS part. There are plenty of other guys out there with talent who can do their part.
We saw a prime example when ESPN’s Sean Salisbury broke down Indy’s last drive before Mike Vanderjagt's final field goal attempt.
Manning twice went long on 2nd-and-2 and 3rd-and-2. Both passes fell incomplete. One was almost intercepted. Salisbury showed that tight end Clark was wide open underneath on one play and running back Edgerrin James was wide open in the flat on the other.
Manning never looked at them, but probably would have picked up 10 to 20 valuable yards if he did.
Indy needs a coach who will demand that Manning do what he’s told and do the smart thing in tight situations.
Where's Marvin?
Manning's hardly the only problem on the Indy offense. Consider the disappearing act perennial Pro Bowl receiver Marvin Harrison pulls off each season:
- Harrison has averaged 6 catches, 80.1 yards and 0.7 TDs per game in his regular-season career.
- Harrison has averaged 4.5 catches, 64.2 yards and 0.2 TDs per game in his postseason career.
Vanderjagt is the most accurate kicker in NFL history in the regular season (217 for 248; 87.5 percent).
He has managed just a 78.6 success rate (11 for 14) in the postseason.
The turning point
The 21-18 loss to Pittsburgh seems to have been a tipping point for many Indy fans. They finally realize that the team needs to make changes to win it all.
We got the message back in 2002, when the Colts played the N.Y. Jets in the playoffs.
The 2002 Jets were just 9-7, won the AFC East on a three-way tiebreaker and had a scoring differential of just +23 (359 PF, 336 PA). They were, in other words, one of the AFC's worst playoff teams in recent history.
The Jets beat the Colts, 41-0.
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