There are two kinds of football analysis. There is the kind in which an alleged “pundit” tosses out a couple of names as if their opponents are supposed to melt at their mere mention. “Hey, you better watch out. The Banana Slugs have speedster Joey Jim Bob Jones and all-world linebacker D’Shiqua 'Boom Boom' Washington!”

 

Then there is the type of analysis you get here: analysis built upon the bedrock foundation of Cold, Hard Football Facts.

 

It’s the first kind of analysis that makes us cough our breakfast beer out our nose every time we hear it because it’s not really giving you anything you couldn’t get from your 4-year-old niece who walks around in her little Donovan McNabb/Tom Brady/Peyton Manning jersey. It’s analysis that naturally reminds us of someone like old friend Petey Prisco. True story: We heard Prisco on sports radio WEEI out of Boston once during the 2003 NFL postseason. He predicted Tennessee would beat New England in the divisional playoffs because – and we shit you not here – “the Titans have more stars.”

 

The Titans lost, despite Prisco's thorough breakdown of the game.

 

We were pissed when we heard poor Petey that day. One, because we couldn’t believe this factless moron had a forum to spout this nonsensical bullshit. And two, our beer went spilling from our nostrils all over our shirt as we drove to work. (This was back when we had jobs.) If you want to pinpoint the origins of this little experiment called the Cold, Hard Football Facts, it was that very morning. We simply could not take the hackery any longer.

 

All of which brings us around to the Next Big Game of the Century, tonight’s Rose Bowl showdown between Texas and USC. We’re literally bouncing off the soggy walls of the cardboard box Cold, Hard Football Facts world headquarters in anticipation of this game.

 

But you might have noticed that much of the analysis centers around a few names. USC vs. Texas has essentially become a battle of BushLeinartWhite vs. Young.

 

And in the analysis of names, the three-headed USC monster has become the obvious favorite on the big boards of Vegas and in the court of public opinion. The Trojans are a 7-point favorite and numerous “pundits” have come right out and predicted a USC cakewalk.

 

It won’t happen.

 

Texas is the better team and will win tonight. How do we know? Easy. We looked beyond the Hollywood Golden Boy headlines and did a great big belly flop into the pool of pigskin knowledge called the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

 

 

Yes, it’s true that USC has quite a remarkable ground game. But Texas is No. 3 in the country, averaging 273.8 rushing yards per game. USC is No. 4, with 264.3 YPG.

 

 

Not exactly. USC certainly passes more often and for more yards, but Texas quarterback Vince Young leads the nation in passing efficiency with a 168.6 rating. Leinart is merely No. 7, with a passer efficiency rating of 158.3. (College football uses a different rating system than the NFL, one that creates inflated numbers compared with the pro rating.)

 

Young has passed for 26 touchdowns on 285 attempts (1 TD per 11.0 attempts). Leinart has passed for 27 touchdowns on 391 attempts (1 TD per 14.5 attempts).

 

 

Sure, they can. But so can the Longhorns. In fact, Texas is No. 1 in the country, averaging 50.9 PPG. USC is No. 2 with 50.0 PPG.

 

 

Yes, Carroll has turned out some stellar defenses during his years at USC. But the 2005 edition of the Trojans defense is not among them. USC ranks just 39th in the nation in total defense (344.6 YPG), behind such notable defensive powerhouses as Rutgers, Marshall, Troy and Connecticut. USC is also just 27th in the nation in scoring defense, surrendering 21.3 PPG. And now USC is up against an offense far more productive than any it has faced all year.

 

Texas, meanwhile, is far more dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Longhorns are No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense (14.6 PPG) and No. 6 in total defense (280.3 YPG). And get this: Texas allows opponents a ridiculous 4.7 yards per passing attempt, far and away the best in the nation (Miami is No. 2, allowing 5.2 yards per attempt). For its part, USC allows opponents 6.6 yards per passing attempt and tonight finds itself up against the best passer in the nation.

 

Texas has faced and beaten two teams with defenses better than USC’s. Early this season, they walked into the home of Fiesta Bowl champion Ohio State, a team that ranks in the top 10 in both total and scoring defense, and walked out with a 25-22 victory. Texas also hung 45 points on an Oklahoma team that boasts one of the nation’s top 20 defenses.

 

USC has yet to face a defense that’s anywhere near as good as the Texas defense.

 

We’ve seen this story time and again. Team A has the high-powered offense that garners all the headlines. Team B has the suffocating defense that routinely gets overlooked because it’s just not the same sexy story.

 

Team A is the darling of the “pundits” and gambling America. Team B wins the game. 

 

And in this case, Texas has more than just a superior defense. It has an offense that's at least as good as USC's.

 

Defense wins championships. And only one team tonight has a championship defense.

 

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Here's how Texas and USC rank in most major offensive and defensive categories:

Category	Texas (Rank)	USC (Rank)
Scoring offense	50.9 (1)	50.0 (2)
Total offense	508.4 (3)	580.3 (1)
Rush offense	273.8 (3)	264.3 (4)
Pass offense	234.7 (42)	316.0 (5)
Scoring defense	14.6 (4)	21.3 (27)
Total defense	280.3 (6)	344.6 (39)
Rush defense	124.4 (30)	117.3 (24)
Pass defense	155.9 (4)	227.3 (73)