Last year, it all seemed so easy.

 

Looking at the overall records after the 2004 season may have made for a muddy playoff picture – the Chargers were 12-4, for example, yet they were certainly no better than the 10-6 Jets – but there was a massive disparity between the haves and have-nots among NFL postseason contenders.

 

Anybody who looked at the 2004 postseason through the lens of the Quality Wins Quotient could see the differences: New England and Pittsburgh ruled the NFL. Indy was wildly overrated. The Packers, Seahawks and Vikings had no shot whatsoever at postseason success. NFC power players Atlanta and Philly were completely untested and subsequently stumbled at the end.

 

We gleaned all of this simply by looking at the 2004 Quality Wins Quotient.

 

And, like dominoes falling one after another, the Quality Wins Quotient proved nearly perfectly accurate. The quotient went 10-1 picking NFL postseason games, while teams with better overall records were just 7-4. The quotient even trumped the wise guys, going 8-3 against the spread.

 

This year, the picture is not so clear. In fact, the field of postseason teams is far stronger than it was in 2004, when the NFC sent two 8-8 teams to the playoffs and one team, Green Bay, somehow ended up in the playoffs despite not beating a single team all season that had a winning record. Green Bay, of course, was unceremoniously dumped from the playoffs with just the second postseason loss at home in franchise history.

 

This year looks quite a bit different. There is a case to be made that every team in the playoffs has a legitimate shot at ending up in the Super Bowl. At the very least, the field is much more tightly packed than it was last season. The good teams this year are not as good as they were last year, and the bad teams are not as bad.

 

Here's a look at how big the gap was last year between the best and worst teams in the playoffs and how narrow the divide is this year:

What's it all mean for us? It means we're not as convinced that our formula will hold true this year as we were last year. In fact, we were quite obnoxious about it last year. The numbers were unmistakable. The conclusions were easy to interpret. The results were deadly acccurate.

 

But still, we're sticking by our guns. Here's a look at how all 12 teams compare using our formula from 2004. Each team is ranked by record against quality opponents, with margin of victory used as the tiebreaker.

 

You can also click here and see how teams stack up when looking at our formula from a number of different angles.

 

It's official: This is Indy's "No More Excuses" tour through the postseason. Even though the Colts stumbled across the finish line, they enter the playoffs as the team to beat. O.K., everyone else is saying the same thing, and we realize you don't come here to hear the same old party line of the "pundits." So, if you're looking for a few chinks in the armor, there are many ... Indy faced the easiest schedule of any AFC playoff team, playing opponents who went a combined 117-139 (.457) this season. And, of course, in Indy's past five playoff appearances, the offense has fallen apart each season. So, even though the defense ranked No. 2 in the NFL this year (15.4 PPG), that won't be enough if the offense doesn't improve over its typical postseason performance: The Colts have averaged just 10.0 PPG in their five postseason losses in the Manning Era. Still, the Colts have the league's best record against quality opponents and have won those games by a wider margin than any other team in football. They'll never have a better chance to win the Super Bowl than they do this season.

 

The Broncos may be the team best equipped to beat three straight quality teams over the next month. The have the second-best overall record in football (13-3, tied with Seattle), they quietly amassed the third toughest defense in football (16.1 PPG, tied with Pittsburgh) and they did it while beating at least two more quality opponents than every other team in the NFL. Denver's opponents this year were a combined 128-128, making them one of just three playoff teams that faced at least .500 competition over the course of the season. The Broncos also emerged as the clear champion of what might have been the toughest division in football. And while everyone talks about the great advantage Indy may have in its home dome, the Broncos were the only AFC team that went undefeated at home. If someone can knock off Indy in the divisional round, the Super Bowl belongs to Denver.

 

All year long, Seattle fans decried the lack of love their team was getting nationally. Well, Shaun Alexander certainly deserves to be the league MVP this year and Matt Hasselbeck had a career season. But the Seahawks gorged themselves on a cupcake schedule. No playoff team faced fewer quality opponents and no team faced an easier schedule: Seattle's opponents went just 110-146 (.430) this season. Seattle's best victory, meanwhile, came against an Indy squad that fielded its second-stringers for much of the game. The Seahawks may emerge as the champions of the NFC, but every team in the AFC faced a tougher road to the postseason and is capable of beating Seattle on Feb. 6.

 

The Buccaneers enter the playoffs as just one of four teams with a winning record over quality opponents but remain something of an enigma. Only Seattle faced an easier schedule (Tampa's opponents were a combined 115-141, .449) and despite fielding one of the best defenses in football this year – Tampa was No. 1 in total defense (277.8 YPG) and No. 8 in scoring defense (17.1 PPG) – they managed to score just 26 points more than they allowed (300-276). They also were one of just two playoff teams to suffer a shutout this year (28-0 to New England). With a win over the Redskins in the wild-card round, the Buccaneers will end up in Chicago – where they'll be lucky to score a single point against one of the better defenses in recent NFL history.

 

The Steelers drew tons of attention last season with a defense that ranked No. 1 in scoring and No. 1 in total defense. Well, check your stat books: They gave up just six more points in 2005 than they did in 2004. And, oh yeah, the Steelers actually have a better offense this year (24.3 PPG) than they did last season (23.2 PPG), when they led the NFL with a 15-1 regular-season record. What's it mean? It means the Steelers might be sitting there with the AFC's No. 2 seed if they had not lost Ben Roethlisberger for four games this year (they went 2-2 over that stretch). But winning at Cincinnati, Indy and then New England or Denver seems virtually impossible for any team.

 

We expressed our admiration for the Redskins earlier this week: They're led by arguably the best coach in football, and they got to the playoffs the hard way. Washington enters the postseason with more consecutive wins than any other playoff contender (five), including smackdowns of tough division rivals Dallas and the N.Y. Giants. Washington's schedule this season was eight games tougher (139-118, .539) than any other playoff team. Eight teams this year faced 10 or more quality opponents and only two made the playoffs: Denver and Washington.

 

The Jaguars are probably the most-underrated team in the playoffs and have some pretty impressive victories under their belt: They beat Cincy, Pittsburgh and Seattle and, early in the season, went toe-to-toe with the Colts during a 10-3 loss at Indy. They've also gone 8-1 in November, December and January, giving them the best record in football over that period. But since beating Pittsburgh on Oct. 16, the Jaguars have faced the easiest schedule in football. They lost at St. Louis on Oct. 30, eked out a 3-point win at Tennessee, and beat Arizona, Cleveland and San Francisco by a combined 14 points. The one good team they faced over the final two months of the season, Indy, beat them badly.

 

There's an argument to be made that the NFC East was the toughest division in football. It was a top-heavy group that sent two teams to the playoffs and fielded three quality teams. The only division team that struggled was the injury- and controversy-riddled conference champion from Philadelphia. The Giants emerged as the division champion and did so on the back of the third-best scoring offense in football (26.4 PPG). Only Seattle and Indy scored more this season. The problem is a defense that surrendered 314 points. No team has ever won a Super Bowl giving up that many points. They'll probably also have to win two straight playoff games on the road to make the Super Bowl. That's a tall order for a team that went just 3-4 on the road this season. (The record books show that the Giants went 4-4 on the road, but one of those "road" games was played against the Saints at Giants Stadium.)

 

The Panthers raced out of the gates and then stumbled across the finish line, which is why they find themselves in a position today of likely having to win three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl – after beginning the season with a 7-2 mark. Carolina's season peaked with a 27-17 Week Two win over New England. The Panthers got another boost on Nov. 6, when they spanked Tampa Bay, 34-14. They have not beaten another quality opponent since, going 0-3 against Chicago, Tampa Bay and Dallas over the past two months. Carolina's opponents this year were a combined 115-141 (.449, tied with Tampa). Only Seattle glided along an easier road on the way to the playoffs.

 

The Bengals got a little full of themselves this season. They posted their first winning record and will make their first playoff appearance since 1990. They even won a big game at Pittsburgh in December, which ultimately gave Cincy the division title. But this is a team that's simply not built for the postseason. Their defense surrenders 21.9 PPG (and 25.4 PPG against quality opponents), making it one of the worst in recent postseason history. Other than the December victory over Pittsburgh, Cincy's last big quality victory came back in September (24-7 over Chicago). Even with a No. 3 seed and at least one home game, the Bengals will not make it past the divisional round of the playoffs.

The Bears have one thing every team covets in the postseason: a shutdown defense. Chicago surrendered just 12.6 PPG, making them the best in the league this year and one of the best in modern NFL history. But, even with the overblown return of Rex Grossman, the Bears may have peaked in late November, when they picked up two of their three quality wins (over Carolina and Tampa). Their other quality win came back in October over Minnesota. Not exactly a schedule that will put the fear of the Football Gods in their opponents. Chicago also averages 16.2 PPG on offense. The worst Super Bowl-winning offense ever belonged to the 2000 Ravens. That team scored 20.8 PPG. Despite the historic defense, the Bears are one of the weakest No. 2 seeds football has seen in recent years

 

The Patriots, as they have done so often in recent years, enter the playoffs as one of the more intriguing teams in football. Which team will show up in the postseason? The team that was absolutely awful through the first half of the season? Or the team that, finally healthy, emerged in December to set NFL records for defensive dominance, absolutely manhandling four straight opponents? New England's proponents will hang their hat on a 28-0 drubbing of Tampa Bay earlier this season – one of just two shutouts suffered by a playoff team this year (the Giants shut out the Redskins, 36-0, in the other). New England's doubters will point to the fact that the team has beaten just one quality opponent over the last seven games of the season. In addition to the unprecedented injuries (NE fielded some 45 different starters), New England's opponents went 130-126 (.508). Only Washington faced a tougher road to the playoffs. Oh yeah, New England is once again chasing history. With a win over Jacksonville on Saturday, they'll set an NFL record with 10 consecutive postseason victories (they're currently tied with the 1961-67 Packers with nine straight). And, of course, they're shooting to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls.