As the NFL locomotive chugs towards the postseason, the premier teams can follow different tracks. Some keep the train rolling by continuing to win. Others ease off the throttle, sacrificing victories in an effort to spare players from injury.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have been working on the gridiron railroad all the livelong season. We have watched 32 trains pull out of the station and have monitored their progress throughout the trip. After Sunday, only 12 of them will still be in operation.
Several teams enter this final weekend riding hot streaks. The Seahawks have won 11 straight games, clinching home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Patriots have recorded four consecutive victories to lock up the AFC East. And the Broncos have triumphed in their last three, ensuring that they will be the second seed in the AFC. (The Redskins and Steelers, winners of four and three straight, respectively, have now assumed positions of power, needing just to win again on Sunday to make the playoffs.)
On the other side of the tracks, we find Indy. Through the first 14 weeks of this season, the Colts were a runaway train. They had outscored their opponents by an average of more than 16 points per game (30.2 to 13.8). None of their victories came by less than a touchdown as they steamed to a perfect 13-0 mark.
Since then, the brakes have been applied in a major way. First, a desperate San Diego team brought Indy's quest for a perfect season to a screeching halt with an impressive 26-17 win. Then, having secured their playoff position as the AFC's top seed, the Colts elected to hold out some players and limit others last Saturday in Seattle. Those taking the field did so with heavy hearts in the aftermath of the tragic suicide of coach Tony Dungy's son James, and the end result was a 28-13 loss.
Although still the league's best team, the Colts now face a dilemma. How should they approach the season finale against Arizona? Do they play it to win, needing some momentum heading into the playoffs? Or can they continue on this course and hope to be able to throw a switch when the games really matter?
For the answers, all passengers on the Playoff Express should turn to a wise, old conductor called the Cold, Hard Football Facts. History reveals that no team entering the postseason on a three-game losing streak has ever won the Super Bowl. Actually, no team that lost three of its last four regular-season games has claimed the championship either.
The vast majority of Super Bowl squads have been peaking as they reached the playoffs, propelled by a strong record during the final month of the regular season. Here is a breakdown of the winners and losers in all 39 Super Bowls, and how they fared in the regular-season stretch run:
|
Final-Month Record |
SB Winners |
SB Losers |
Total |
|
4-0 |
18 |
11 |
29 |
|
3-0-1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
3-1 |
16 |
19 |
35 |
|
2-2 |
5 |
6 |
11 |
|
1-3 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
|
0-4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Entering the postseason on a hot streak is no guarantee of advancing to the title game, but it does seem to give teams the inside track. In the previous Super Bowls, 65 of the 78 participants (and 34 of 39 champs) had winning records in their last four regular-season games.
Just two teams have reached the Super Bowl after posting a losing record during the final month of the regular season – and both were subsequently blown out. To summarize their seasons:
- The 1980 Eagles endured 1-, 3- and 8-point defeats down the stretch. They advanced to Super Bowl XV and were beaten by the Raiders, 27-10.
- The 1989 Broncos endured 3-, 7- and 3-point defeats down the stretch. They advanced to Super Bowl XXIV and were beaten by the 49ers, 55-10.
Despite suffering three losses in their last four games, these teams were competitive in all of them. On the other hand, the final scores of Indy's last two contests might have the flagman waving red. The Colts have already been on the short end of 9- and 15-point defeats.
Only one team, the 1997 Broncos, has ever won a Super Bowl after dropping two of its last four games by more than a touchdown. Denver lost at Pittsburgh (35-24) and San Francisco (34-17) in Weeks 15 and 16 that year. After getting back on track with a home win over San Diego in Week 17, the Broncos eventually went on to capture their first championship.
Once the Super Bowl participants have been decided, their records over the last month of the regular season have often been an indicator of who will take home the Lombardi Trophy. Just seven teams have won the title with a "stretch record" that was inferior to their opponents. Conversely, the eventual champion has had the better mark down the stretch on 16 occasions. (The two teams posted identical final-month records 16 other times.)
If this year's two No. 1 seeds reach the Super Bowl, Indy will be at a disadvantage in that regard. At worst, the Seahawks will have gone 3-1 over their last four regular-season games, while the Colts must win to achieve a 2-2 finish.
The Colts' last victory came on Dec. 11, when they beat the Jaguars by a score of 26-18. Because they have a bye in the first round of the playoffs, they don't play a postseason game until the weekend of Jan. 14-15. A loss to the Cardinals on Sunday would mean that Indy will go over a month without winning a game – and a season that seemed bound for unprecedented greatness might be further derailed.
The final stop on this year's Playoff Express is Detroit, where the best teams from each conference will meet for Super Bowl XL. If the Colts are to represent the AFC, they will need to demonstrate the ability to get all pistons firing on an engine that has been cold for a long time.
