Gambling on football – from fantasy leagues to office pools to bets placed locally and offshore – has become so widespread that it contributes mightily to the unmatched popularity of the sport. Conversely, gambling within an NFL or big-time college game, by coaches who aren't scared to deviate from the conservative norm, happens with much less frequency. In both cases, the Cold, Hard Football Facts admire the wisdom of calculated risk, since successfully bucking the odds and challenging the gridiron gods can pay off handsomely for bettors and for coaches. All that is required is the courage of your pigskin convictions.
Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden garnered praise this week when he made the gutsy call to try a two-point conversion in the last minute of a home game against Washington. After his team had pulled within one, 35-34, on a 30-yard Chris Simms-to-Edell Shepherd touchdown pass, Gruden went for the win in regulation instead of following conventional wisdom by kicking the tying extra point and playing for overtime. His decision was made easier when a Redskins offside penalty negated a blocked kick on the initial PAT attempt. With another chance from a yard closer, bruising fullback Mike Alstott got the call and barely reached the goal line from a yard out, earning the Buccaneers a 36-35 victory.
Gruden's gamble was just the fourth time since the NFL instituted the two-point conversion in 1994 that a team had attempted the deuce when trailing by one with less than two minutes remaining. Tampa was also the site of the first occurrence – on Nov. 19, 1995. It was the inaugural season of the Jacksonville franchise and Tom Coughlin was in just his eleventh game as head coach. Quarterback Steve Beuerlein, who had been acquired from Arizona as the team's top selection in the expansion draft, drew the Jaguars within one point of the Bucs on a touchdown pass to tight end Pete Mitchell with 33 seconds remaining. Coughlin boldly elected to go for two, but Beuerlein's pass to wide receiver Jimmy Smith was caught out of bounds, and Tampa Bay preserved a 17-16 win.
A game-deciding two-point conversion was next attempted on Oct. 12, 1997. The Bears, winless through the first six games of the season under fifth-year head coach Dave Wannstedt, were hosting the rival Packers. Quarterback Erik Kramer connected with wideout Chris Penn on a 22-yard touchdown pass with 1:54 left in regulation, making the score 24-23. Wannstedt opted to roll the dice, but Kramer missed running back Raymont Harris in the flat on the ensuing try for two, and the Bears fell to 0-7.
Not all NFL teams had come up snake eyes in these situations, however. The one previous instance of a successful do-or-die conversion happened on Dec. 15, 2002. Down 31-24 at New Orleans, Minnesota quarterback Daunte Culpepper hit wide receiver Randy Moss for a 13-yard touchdown with five seconds remaining. Having lost 10 of 13 games in his first full season as the Vikings' head coach, Mike Tice decided to go for broke. Culpepper ran in the two-point conversion, delivering a 32-31 victory and ending Minnesota's 17-game road losing streak.
Whereas the two-point conversion is relatively new in the NFL, it has existed in college football since 1958. Not surprisingly, the play has affected the outcome of several big games over the years. Deuces are certainly wild, and they have often defined the careers of those who have chosen to play them.
On New Year's night in 1984, the Orange Bowl was witness to one of the greatest college football games of all time. Top-ranked Nebraska had dominated its opponents throughout the season, winning by an average score of 52-16. Head coach Tom Osborne was seeking his first national championship in 11 years at the helm, and the powerhouse Cornhuskers were 11-point favorites over No. 5 Miami. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, were a rising program under fifth-year head coach Howard Schnellenberger. After losses earlier that day by No. 2 Texas and No. 4 Illinois, Miami was essentially playing for the championship trophy as well.
Boosted by a raucous home crowd, the Hurricanes stormed out to a 17-0 lead behind two Bernie Kosar touchdown passes. They were still in front by seven late in the fourth quarter as Nebraska faced a fourth-and-8 on Miami's 24-yard line. Quarterback Turner Gill ran the option and pitched to tailback Jeff Smith, who had been forced into duty when Heisman Trophy winner Mike Rozier left the game with a badly sprained ankle. Smith darted down the sideline and dove into the end zone to pull the Huskers within 31-30.
Because overtime had not yet been adopted by the NCAA, Osborne had two choices: He could kick the PAT, salvage a tie and likely still win the national title – but lose some respect in the process. Or he could go for two and remove any doubt. He admirably opted for the latter, but Gill's pass to Smith was deflected by defensive back Ken Calhoun and fell incomplete. Schnellenberger and the Hurricanes claimed their first national championship, while Osborne would have to wait 11 more years for his.
Miami has also been on the other side of the coin, and the game even had the identical score. On Oct. 15, 1988, the top-ranked Hurricanes had won 36 regular-season contests and were the defending national champs. Fifth-year head coach Jimmy Johnson, who had replaced the departed Schnellenberger after that '84 Orange Bowl, led the team into South Bend to take on No. 4 Notre Dame in a showdown that had been billed as "the Catholics versus the convicts." The Fighting Irish entered the game 5-0 under fiery head coach Lou Holtz, who had returned the school to football prominence in his third season.
Notre Dame built a 31-21 lead in the third quarter, but Miami rallied back. On fourth-and-11 at the Irish 14, quarterback Steve Walsh hit Andre Brown in the corner of the end zone with 45 seconds left, making the score 31-30. Overtime in college football was still eight years away, so Johnson could either play for the tie or the win. The decision was made to attempt a two-point conversion, but Walsh couldn't find an open receiver, and his pass was knocked down by safety Pat Terrell. Notre Dame would stay undefeated and go on to win the national championship, while Miami had to settle for finishing No. 2.
Fortune does sometimes smile on coaches who risk defeat to achieve ultimate victory. On Nov. 29, 1997, Ole Miss and Mississippi State got together for the 70th annual "Egg Bowl," named after the Golden Egg trophy that is awarded to the winner. Trailing 14-7, the Rebels scored with just 25 seconds remaining on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Stewart Patridge to Andre Rone. With the game hanging in the balance, third-year head coach Tommy Tuberville eschewed overtime and went for the victory in regulation. Patridge hit Cory Peterson for the two-point conversion, and Ole Miss defeated its in-state rival, 15-14. The gutsy decision earned the team a trip to the Motor City Bowl, where a win over Marshall capped an 8-4 season and propelled the Rebels to No. 22 in the final national rankings.
In the NFL, examples of coaches making the aggressive call when the game is on the line have been rare, but maybe a new trend is emerging. Just a week before Gruden's gamble, Kansas City coach Dick Vermeil faced a similar dilemma. With the ball at the 1-yard line and time for just one more play, he could have kicked a tying field goal or gone for a touchdown. He decided to put the ball in the hands of running back Larry Johnson, who soared and scored, producing a 27-23 victory over Oakland.
Prior to making his fateful choice, Vermeil was probably recalling a game at New England on Sept. 22, 2002. Priest Holmes had run for a one-yard touchdown on the last play of regulation, making the score 38-37. Chiefs offensive coordinator Al Saunders raised the possibility of going for two and the win, but Vermeil played it safe. After the tying extra point forced overtime, the Patriots received the kickoff and promptly drove down the field for Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 35-yard field goal. Acknowledging the benefit of hindsight, Vermeil would later say that he should have faked the kick because the Patriots had sold out to block it.
Experience is a great teacher, and those who do not learn from the Cold, Hard Football Facts are doomed to defeat. The smart money is on the coaches willing to take a chance every now and then. As any gambler knows, calculated risks can pay off big.
