Rusher Rating: Super Bowl Edition | Cold Hard Football Facts

Rusher Rating: Super Bowl Edition
Cold, Hard Football Facts for February 08, 2012

By Ken Crippen
Pro Football Researchers' Association

The season is over and the New York Giants are Super Bowl Champions. Overall, it was a good game. For the most part, the referees let the players play. Few penalties were called (four for the Giants and five for the Patriots), but the ones that were called proved to be costly. The first was intentional grounding against Tom Brady on their first offensive play of the game. That resulted in a safety.

But, let’s focus on the running game. New York Giant offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride stated that the Patriots spent the bulk of the first half strictly in a cover-2 defense. That lent itself to running the football. And the Giants ran the football 28 times for 114 yards and a touchdown. That one touchdown came a little too early for the Giants' comfort. With about a minute left in the game, the Giants were looking to kill the clock. The Patriots gambled and told their defense to allow a score. That would give Brady maximum time to try to score and win the game. Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw got the call, but mistakenly fell into the endzone, instead of falling down at the one yard line. That gave Brady an opportunity to win the game. However, his Hail Mary pass was knocked down to preserve the Giant victory.

New England Patriots	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
BenJarvus Green-Ellis	10	44	4.40	0	0	76.92
Wes Welker	2	21	10.50	0	0	105.56
Danny Woodhead	7	18	2.57	0	0	66.89
Total:	19	83	4.37	0	0	76.75

New York Giants	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Ahmad Bradshaw	17	72	4.24	1	1	99.55
Brandon Jacobs	9	37	4.11	0	0	75.34
D.J. Ware	1	6	6.00	0	0	85.70
Eli Manning	1	-1	-1.00	0	0	52.78
Total:	28	114	4.07	1	1	89.40

The leading rusher of the day was Bradshaw, based on the number of carries and yards gained. His 17 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown was good for a Rusher Rating of 99.55. BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the leading rusher for the Patriots with 10 carries for 44 yards.

During the playoffs, New England coach Bill Belichick usedtight end Aaron Hernandez as a running back. Hernandez did not get a carry in this game. Due to the injury to Rob Gronkowski, that limited New England’s flexibility in having their tight end in the backfield. He did line up there for a few plays, but he did not run the ball, but did catch a pass out of the backfield.

Situational Statistics

An 89.40 Offensive Rusher Rating is hardly impressive, but the Giants were able to use a combination of pass and run to keep the ball out of the Patriots’ hands. They had a total time of possession of 37:05, and the Patriots only ran one play in the first 11.5 minutes of the game. Giant quarterback Eli Manning threw 80 percent of his passes under 15 yards. That was effective as he completed 87.5 percent of those passes. They also had over 100 yards after initial contact. Effectively running the ball, effectively passing the ball and getting yards after contact. That is how you win championships.

Now, let’s start to dig into the situational statistics.

Rusher Rating	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
New York Giants	28	114	4.07	1	1	89.40

	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Running Lane
Left End	1	6	6.00	0	0	85.70
Left Tackle	4	28	7.00	0	0	91.19
Left Guard	1	2	2.00	0	0	64.75
Center	14	50	3.57	1	0	125.15
Right Guard	4	11	2.75	0	0	67.87
Right Tackle	2	11	5.50	0	0	82.96
Right End	2	6	3.00	0	1	16.46

Attempts
1 through 10	10	54	5.40	0	0	82.41
11 through 20	10	36	3.60	0	0	72.53
21 through 30	8	25	3.13	1	1	69.92

Field Position
Own 1-20	2	16	8.00	0	1	43.90
Own 21-50	13	53	4.08	0	0	75.15
Opponent 49-20	7	24	3.43	0	0	71.59
Redzone	6	21	3.50	1	0	124.76

Half
1st	17	69	4.06	0	0	75.05
2nd	11	45	4.09	1	1	84.57

Quarter
1st	8	39	4.88	0	0	79.53
2nd	9	30	3.33	0	0	71.07
3rd	7	25	3.57	0	0	72.37
4th	4	20	5.00	1	1	80.21

The Giants decided to run the bulk of their plays straight up the middle, gaining 3.57 yards-per-carry. They were not as efficient through the tackles, but improved as they went toward the outside of the line.

Finally, let’s break down rushing by down and distance:

Down and Distance	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
1^st Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	-	-	-	-	-	n/a
To Go: 3-7 Yards	1	4	4.00	0	0	74.73
To Go: 8-10 Yards	14	41	2.93	0	0	68.85
To Go: 11+ Yards	-	-	-	-	-	n/a
2^nd Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	4	33	8.25	0	0	98.05
To Go: 3-7 Yards	3	17	5.67	1	0	136.65
To Go: 8-10 Yards	4	20	5.00	0	1	27.43
To Go: 11+ Yards	2	-1	-0.50	0	0	52.78

The Giants did not run on either third or fourth down.

Rusher Rating Differential

Earlier in the year, we introduced Rusher Rating Differential. This is the difference between the Offensive Rusher Rating and the Defensive Rusher Rating. As expected, the Giants won the Rusher Rating Differential battle in the Super Bowl. Their 89.40 Offensive Rusher Rating beat the Patriots’ 76.75 Rusher Rating, for a Differential of +12.65.

Offensive Rusher Rating	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
New York Giants	28	114	4.07	1	1	89.40
New England Patriots	19	83	4.37	0	0	76.75

Defensive Rusher Rating	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
New York Giants	19	83	4.37	0	0	76.75
New England Patriots	28	114	4.07	1	1	89.40

Rusher Rating Differential	Rushing Attempts	Offensive Rusher Rating	Defensive Rushing Attempts	Defensive Rusher Rating	Rusher Rating Differential
New York Giants	28	89.40	19	76.75	+12.65
New England Patriots	19	76.75	28	89.40	-12.65

Now, if we factor in Passer Rating, we can create a Total Team Rating. First, we start with the Team Offensive Rating. The Giants again won with a 97.87 Team Offensive Rating, compared to New England’s 86.56 Offensive Team Rating.

Super Bowl	Rushing Attempts	Offensive Rusher Rating	Offensive Passing Attempts	Offensive Passer Rating	Team Offensive Rating
New York Giants	28	89.40	40	103.8	97.87
New England Patriots	19	76.75	41	91.1	86.56

Then, we move to the Team Defensive Rating:

Super Bowl	Rushing Attempts	Defensive Rusher Rating	Defensive Passing Attempts	Defensive Passer Rating	Team Defensive Rating
New York Giants	19	76.75	41	91.1	86.56
New England Patriots	28	89.40	40	103.8	97.87

This gave the Giants a +11.31 Total Team Differential for the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl	Team Offensive Rating	Team Defensive Rating	Total Team Differential
New York Giants	97.87	86.56	+11.31
New England Patriots	86.56	97.87	-11.31

Now, we can look at the Total Team Ratings for both teams through the entire regular season and playoffs:

Season	Rushing Attempts	Offensive Rusher Rating	Offensive Passing Attempts	Offensive Passer Rating	Team Offensive Rating
New York Giants	411	101.16	589	92.9	96.29
New England Patriots	438	107.68	612	105.7	106.53

Season	Rushing Attempts	Defensive Rusher Rating	Defensive Passing Attempts	Defensive Passer Rating	Team Defensive Rating
New York Giants	435	96.53	589	86.1	90.53
New England Patriots	405	94.55	619	86.1	89.44

Season	Team Offensive Rating	Team Defensive Rating	Total Team Differential
New York Giants	96.29	90.53	+5.76
New England Patriots	106.53	89.44	+17.08

Let’s put the 2011 New York Giants into historical perspective:

Team	Team Offensive Rating	Team Defensive Rating	Total Team Differential
1940 Bears	88.77	60.79	+27.98
1941 Bears	106.81	41.44	+65.37
1942 Redskins	72.67	45.07	+27.60
1943 Bears	84.56	55.93	+28.63
1944 Packers	77.58	59.18	+18.40
1945 Rams	88.63	54.90	+33.73
1946 Bears	82.51	57.74	+24.77
1947 Cardinals	79.82	67.04	+12.78
1948 Eagles	92.04	54.25	+37.79
1949 Eagles	94.39	48.93	+45.46
1950 Browns	89.32	51.31	+38.01
1951 Rams	95.77	79.99	+15.78
1952 Lions	77.52	51.31	+26.21
1953 Lions	71.17	59.25	+11.92
1954 Browns	88.58	50.31	+38.27
1955 Browns	92.63	60.36	+32.27
1956 Giants	84.95	68.50	+16.45
1957 Lions	72.76	71.99	+0.77
1958 Colts	100.97	58.48	+42.49
1959 Colts	91.31	75.85	+15.46
1960 Eagles	85.53	74.84	+8.69
1961 Packers	105.11	67.41	+37.70
1962 Packers	105.45	52.12	+53.33
1963 Bears	82.34	51.61	+30.73
1964 Browns	91.87	82.75	+9.12
1965 Packers	85.30	60.83	+24.47
1966 Packers	92.61	61.90	+30.71
1967 Packers	84.01	60.74	+23.27
1968 Jets	89.80	62.04	+27.76
1969 Chiefs	82.92	52.15	+30.77
1970 Colts	73.43	67.34	+6.09
1971 Cowboys	95.45	56.23	+39.22
1972 Dolphins	98.94	58.33	+40.61
1973 Dolphins	86.82	66.86	+19.96
1974 Steelers	73.56	54.73	+18.83
1975 Steelers	91.59	62.82	+28.77
1976 Raiders	93.53	84.26	+9.27
1977 Cowboys	92.14	65.46	+26.68
1978 Steelers	81.61	62.12	+19.49
1979 Steelers	86.51	64.80	+21.71
1980 Raiders	75.21	74.98	+0.23
1981 49ers	87.96	66.15	+21.81
1982 Redskins	83.01	72.14	+10.87
1983 Raiders	83.64	76.12	+7.52
1984 49ers	101.89	72.63	+29.26
1985 Bears	93.35	55.19	+38.16
1986 Giants	85.62	69.89	+15.73
1987 Redskins	85.09	74.93	+10.16
1988 49ers	91.00	71.71	+19.29
1989 49ers	100.26	70.63	+29.63
1990 Giants	92.09	70.11	+21.98
1991 Redskins	97.52	68.02	+29.50
1992 Cowboys	95.74	74.59	+21.15
1993 Cowboys	97.00	74.27	+22.73
1994 49ers	107.01	78.73	+28.28
1995 Cowboys	103.89	82.29	+21.60
1996 Packers	88.56	62.45	+26.11
1997 Broncos	93.27	77.37	+15.90
1998 Broncos	105.43	79.41	+26.02
1999 Rams	98.14	67.17	+30.97
2000 Ravens	79.04	55.50	+23.54
2001 Patriots	85.87	72.01	+13.86
2002 Buccaneers	80.87	63.61	+17.26
2003 Patriots	80.89	65.56	+15.33
2004 Patriots	90.37	73.91	+16.46
2005 Steelers	96.11	74.66	+21.45
2006 Colts	99.64	94.48	+5.16
2007 Giants	81.67	85.37	-3.70
2008 Steelers	87.22	68.54	+18.68
2009 Saints	103.47	82.78	+20.69
2010 Packers	93.44	73.53	+19.91
2011 New York Giants	96.29	90.53	+5.76

Of the 72 NFL Champions since 1940, we still only see one team that had a negative Total Team Differential: the 2007 New York Giants (-3.70). But, how does this year’s Giants team stack up historically? Of the 72 NFL Champions since 1940, only four had a worse Total Team Differential than the New York Giants: 2007 Giants (-3.70), 1980 Raiders (+0.23), 1957 Lions (+0.77) and the 2006 Colts (+5.16).

Statistically, this team was one of the weakest champions in history. However, what is not shown here is how the team improved as the season progressed. Injuries to key players during the middle of the season hampered the Giants’ ability to generate impressive stats. But, with the return of those key players, the Giants were able to get hot at the right time.

How the Rusher Rating is Calculated

Here is how each component is calculated:

Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]

Percentage of TDs per Carry (TD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]

Percentage of Fumbles per Carry (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/Rushing Attempts)]

Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 (the same as the NFL Passer Rating System) yields:

Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (TD) + (F)] * (100/4.5)

Ken Crippen is the executive director of the Professional Football Researchers Association, a non-profit educational organization dedicated to preserving football history. You can follow him on Twitter: @KenCrippen.

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