Patriots suffer big-game offensive meltdown (again)
Cold, Hard Football Facts for February 06, 2012

By Erik Frenz (Twitter: ErikFrenz)
Cold, Hard Football Facts Patriots beat writer

The Patriots loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI wasn't the equivalent statistical gut punch of Super Bowl XLII. But for Patriots fans it was very close. New England was the leader in all eight Cold, Hard Football Facts indicators that predict winners in more than 60 percent of all NFL games.

In the end, as it usually is in NFL games, it came down to just a few key plays by either team. And while the Patriots were a letdown on one side of the ball, the other side was a failure. And if you watched the Patriots at all during the 2011 regular season, you'd be surprised at which side was which.

Bend don't break

All season long, the Patriots gave themselves chances to win games because of their ability to generate turnovers and get stops in the red zone. At season's end, it was their inability to do so that doomed them against the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. 

They forced 34 turnovers in 2011, the third-most in the NFL, but forced just two in their three-game postseason, one apiece against the Broncos and Ravens. They lost the turnover battle in those games by a combined -3. Yet there they were, on the doorstep of greatness.

Conversely, the Giants gave up 24 turnovers on offense in the regular season, but just one in their four-game postseason. That trend continued, as well. 

Other than Super Bowl XLVI, the Patriots only failed to force a turnover in one other game this season—a win over the New York Jets, 30-21 at home, the lone interception coming at the end of the first half. Their inability to create turnovers in the playoffs spilled over into the biggest game of the season.

It wasn't enough that the Patriots lost the turnover battle, 0-1, to the Giants. They also missed three opportunities at fumbles—one that was called back on a defensive penalty, and two that were recovered by the Giants. With any one of those three fumbles in New England's lap, the Patriots might have sealed the deal. But judging by the way their offense played, that might not have been the case.

But, as Bill Belichick would say, "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas." Even February 5.


Offense lets down in big game ... again

It wasn't the dramatic fashion in which the Patriots lost Super Bowl XLII—going from the most prolific offense in NFL history to a 14-point clunker in the big game in a matter of four weeks.

However, it's hard not to look at the offensive struggles as the determinate factor of Sunday's game. After scoring an average of 32 points per game in the regular season, the offense could only come up with 17 in the most important game of the season.

There's enough blame to go around.

• Gronkowski clearly wasn't 100 percent, and that clearly affected the Patriots game plan. They couldn't run the routes they wanted to with him, which have worked all season.
• Tom Brady had some late pressure in his face, even though the Patriots were blocking well for him early. There is probably more than one guy on the offensive line to blame for their late struggles.
• The Patriots didn't have any balance on offense, dropping back 43 times and running the ball just 19 times.
• The Patriots ran a hurry-up offense on just nine plays in three series, both touchdown drives.
• Offensive miscues, whether they were drops or bad throws, spelled peril late. In a close game, it comes down to the team that executes plays late.
• Brady hit a Super Bowl record 16 straight completions and had two touchdowns, but went 11-for-25 with an interception in the rest of the game. For whatever reason that happens, it's not a number to be proud of, and certainly not one that will help a team win a Super Bowl.