By Erik Frenz (Twitter: ErikFrenz)
Cold, Hard Football Facts Patriots beat writer
It's not quite the statistical mismatch of Super Bowl XLII, but for the New York Giants, the game plan is similar: put pressure on Tom Brady, and get solid play at the quarterback position.
Of course, that's a formula for victory in just about any game in the history of football, but with a bit of research, we find it could be especially important to the outcome of the biggest game of the 2011 season.
Defensive Hog Index and the Giants' potent pass rush
Tom Brady got swallowed in the mouth of the New York Giants pass rushing onslaught, one of the league's best that year. The 2007 Giants ranked No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index, which measures the productivity of a front seven based on rushing YPA, Negative Pass Play % (sacks + interceptions / total dropbacks) and third down conversion percentage.
In 2011, they tied for 13th. That being said, one common thread holds the two units together: NPP%. They ranked second in the NFL in NPP% in 2007 with a whopping 11.8, and the 2011 Giants rank third with 10.7 percent.
This wouldn't be the first time NPP has been an indicator of Super success.
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The 2007 Giants sacked Brady five times and held the most prolific offense in NFL history to just 14 points en route to a Super Bowl XLII win.
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In 2008, Steelers linebacker James Harrison had one of the most memorable plays in Super Bowl history, and a key to their win in Super Bowl XLIII, when he ran back a 99-yard interception for a touchdown at the end of the first half. The 2008 Steelers ranked first in the DHI and in NPP.
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The 2009 Saints' 26th-ranked pass defense was supposed to get torched by Peyton Manning in Super Bowl XLIV, but their defense ranked third in Defensive Passer Rating and sixth in NPP (10.2 percent). They held the Colts to just 17 points, and Tracy Porter ran back the game-ending interception for a touchdown.
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Pattern of patterns, the 2010 Packers ranked first in NPP with an astonishing 12.2 percent. They picked him off twice, including a key Nick Collins pick-six in the first half.
That's four straight years where NPP have played a dramatic role in the outcome of the Super Bowl. If the Giants are able to topple the Patriots, that will likely mark a fifth consecutive year of success for our Quality Stat.
Easier said than done, though, as the Patriots ranked fourth in the NFL in offensive NPP% allowed. Brady was sacked or intercepted on just 6.9 percent of his dropbacks in the regular season. The Patriots gave up just 4.9 percent NPP in 2007, and though the Offensive Hog Index doesn't go back that far, we'll venture to say it was the best in the NFL that year (this year's No. 1, the Saints, gave up 5.5 percent NPP).
And if any team has the recipe to slow the Giants' defensive line, it's the Patriots. Personnel aside, the Patriots love their no-huddle offense, which could be an effective way to wear down the Giants pass rush -- don't give them too long to rest in between snaps and that could help buy Brady time in the pocket. To run an effective no-huddle offense, though, the Patriots will need to convert third downs. They did so all season long to the tune of 45.9 percent conversion, and are up against a Giants defense that gave up 38.2 percent third down conversions this year. If the Giants are unable to make substitutions and are on the field for long drives, they could get tired fast.
That being said, the Patriots only converted 33 percent of their third downs in Week 9. The Giants have the tools to slow down the Patriots offense, but in the end, it comes down to executing that very simple game plan of rattling Tom Brady.
If not, there is still another beacon of statistical hope for the G-Men.
Eli(te) Manning
Most Patriots fans won't even say it through clenched teeth, but the case is growing stronger and stronger for Eli to join that class.
He's showing up just in time, once again. Sure, he's played well all season long; you don't get to 4,933 passing yards by sucking.
Eli has played some of his best football down the stretch, though, eerily similar to how he did so back in 2007.
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The Giants took out the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the NFC in 2007 and 2011
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Eli Manning's passer rating improved in the postseason in both 2007 and 2011
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Eli remained consistent in the face of increasingly difficult opponents in 2007 and 2011
He'll have his chances against one of the worst pass defenses in football -- even if only marginally worse than the Giants. The Patriots have lived by turnovers all season long, but have lost the turnover battle in each of their past two games. The Patriots best bet is to force Eli to make tough throws and confuse him with coverages that will force him into picks.
Consider this -- the Patriots forced two turnovers per game in the regular season, and have forced just one per game in the postseason. They need to dip into that well of INTs and force Eli Manning into some of the mistakes that were more prevalent during the regular season.
Easier said than done, though. In the past five games, Eli has thrown just two interceptions. In the same span, the Patriots have grabbed only two interceptions. This is the same team that ranked second in the NFL in interceptions. Either the Patriots are due to get an INT, or they're done getting INTs.
Of course, what is any quarterback without his receivers? Eli has a plethora of statistical giants at his disposal in tight end Jake Ballard (15.9 yards per reception), Hakeem Nicks (15.7 YPR, 7 TD) and Salsa Cruz (1,500 receiving yards, 18.7 YPR, 9 TD).
And if the New England Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl, they will have done it with a pass defense that yields the largest passing YPA of any Super Bowl champion in NFL history.
Chalk up a win for the Giants? Not so fast.
This is not 2007
As our chief troll pointed out, the '07 Giants
deviated further from statistical norms than any champion in NFL history. This year, the Giants would have to replicate the statistical miracle-working of '07. The only difference is, they wouldn't get nearly the same credit for it because of the magnitude of the Super Bowl XLII upset.
Ranked fourth in the NFL, the Patriots rank well within the statistical norm in terms of Passer Rating Differential. The Giants, on the other hand, rank an outside-the-box 12th. Only two teams have finished outside the top 10 in Passer Rating Differential and gone on to win the Super Bowl: the 1974 Steelers, and the 2007 Giants.
The Patriots win the mother stat while the Giants hold a gathering of children stats.
