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QuantCoach: Best of 2011
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 25, 2012
By Kevin Braig
The QuantCoach
The QuantCoach’s approach to end-of-year awards is a little different.
Because QC focuses on play design, the “Game Plan of the Year” is the highest honor. In addition, all play designers are eligible for coach of the year. For that reason, the QuantCoach considers not only head coaches, but also assistant coaches and some quarterbacks—who are both play designers and playmakers—as candidates for coach of the year.
The nickname of Kansas City's Hall-of-Fame coach, Hank Stram—“The Mentor”—seems like the perfect name for the QuantCoach’s awards.
The envelope please:
GAME PLAN OF THE YEAR: Denver Offensive Game Plan vs. Oakland (Week 9)
Denver coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy were desperate. In Week 8, second-year quarterback Tim Tebow appeared completely overmatched in an embarrassing 45-10 home loss to Detroit. They had to do something. Fox and McCoy reached back in time and installed a healthy amount of triple option before the Broncos faced the Raiders. The results were astounding. Tebow rushed for 118 yards and running back Willis McGahee exploded for 163 yards and two touchdowns. The Broncos 299 yards were the most Oakland had ever yielded in a game.
Not surprisingly, the Raiders’ record for rushing yards yielded had come when an opponent faced similar dire circumstances. In 1968, Hank Stram prepared for Oakland with all of his wide receivers injured.
“We needed something new to throw the Raiders off balance, cover our weaknesses, and allow us to maximize our strengths,” Stram wrote in They’re Playing My Game. “Something new—a difficult proposition in a sport eight decades old.”
Stram put Kansas City in the old fashion T formation and called 60 running plays—and only three passes—in the Chiefs 24-10 win. Kansas City ran for 294 yards.
“Probably, I thought, nobody on the Raiders had ever seen a T formation, much less played against one,” Stram wrote.
Oakland had the same problem when Denver arrived in town more than 40 years later.
“We knew exactly what was going to happen, and they ran exactly what we thought they were going to run and we didn’t get the job done,” Raiders defensive tackle Richard Seymour said.
The Mentor would have loved that.
COACH OF THE YEAR: Wade Phillips (Houston Defensive Coordinator)
For the QuantCoach, this was a two-horse race between Phillips and San Francisco defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Both designers benefitted from better ingredients. Houston added pass rushers J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed and cover-men Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning. San Francisco’s secondary welcomed Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner and edge-rusher Aldon Smith. In the end Phillips got the nod because opposing passers averaged 2.5 yards less per attempt against the Texans than they did in 2010. In doing so, Houston's defensee improved from 31stin QC’s D-QCYPA statistic to second. The 49ers improvement mostly came from its best in the NFL plus-28 turnover margin, but almost half of that number could be attributed to the offense reducing its turnovers from 23 to ten.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Quarterback)
Rodgers was the clear choice. Consider this. Rodgers attempted 502 passes and lost .436 yards per attempt on sacks. If Rodgers had attempted the 662 passes that New Orleans’ Drew Brees attempted, lost only the .239 yards per attempt that Brees lost on sacks, and been as productive as Rodgers was in Green Bay’s offense, Rodgers would have thrown for 6557 yards and 59 touchdowns. Stated another way, if Rodgers had played against Detroit in the season finale, he could have gone 0 for 27 passing and still been as productive as Brees. Rodgers interception percentage was nearly half Brees’ percentage. Finally, when the teams met in the season opener, Rodgers was more productive in the Packers’ win. If the Saints had won that game, the NFC road to the Super Bowl likely would have gone through the Super Dome and New Orleans might be making travel plans for Indianapolis as the QuantCoach hands out this award.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Patrick Peterson (Arizona Punt Returner)
While Carolina quarterback Cam Newton was impressive, Peterson single-handedly was responsible for more of his team's wins than any other rookie. Peterson’s punt returns for touchdowns were the difference in the Cardinals win over the Panthers and both of their wins over the Rams. His punt return in overtime against Cleveland led to the winning score and only a late Baltimore rally kept his punt return for a touchdown from upsetting the Ravens. On defense, the wonderful folks at Pro Football Focus informed the QuantCoach that Peterson has some work to do on his tackling and coverage, but that he improved in the latter area as he gained more experience. Overall, the Arizona pass defense improved to 8thin D-QCYPA (6.689) from 25th(7.268) with Peterson in the secondary.
SPECIAL TEAMS PLAYER OF THE YEAR: David Akers (San Francisco Kicker)
The last time we saw Akers before the 2011 season, he was missing two short field goals that cost Philadelphia a wild-card win over eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay. After the Eagles set him free, he signed with the 49ers and delivered an NFL record 44 field goals in 52 attempts (.846). San Francisco played tremendous defense, but it was the worst team in the NFL in the red zone. The 49ers simply would not have been 13-3 without Akers, who hit 7 of 9 field goals from beyond 50 yards.
PATIENT OWNER OF THE YEAR: Bob McNair (Houston)
When the Texans began the 2010 season 3-1, hopes and expectations soared in Houston. But after the Texans limped home 3-9, many called for McNair to fire head coach Gary Kubiak. Not only did he refuse to do so, he brought in Phillips who had been fired as head coach in Dallas when the Cowboys’ defense collapsed. McNair’s patience paid off with the first playoff appearance and win in franchise history. And Houston’s year may have been even better if injuries had not forced the Texans to play substantial stretches without stars Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Mario Williams.
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