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Burned by our own formula
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 17, 2005

In our weekly picks against 33 other online "pundits" and football Web sites on themirl.com, we finished in a tie for fourth place in Week One using our quality wins formula.
 
We correctly picked 10 of 16 games. Three others accurately picked 11 of 16. We would have finished among the leaders except we f'ed up and shot ourselves in the foot. We failed to use our quality wins formula in every game. In one game we (mistakenly) chose the wrong team. We picked Philly to beat Atlanta when it was the Falcons who (barely) had the better quality wins rating last season.
 
Basically, we were trumped by our own formula. See what happens? You pick against the quality wins quotient and you get burned. In any case, it is what it is: we're in a tie for fourth place after Week One.
 
Our Week Two picks, and the Week One results, can be found here.
 
Below, find the story behind our picks on themirl.com.
 
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We've teamed up with just about every other half-assed sports site on the Web to put our weekly picks up against those of other online "pundits" and writers all across the country.
 
The picks will be published each week on themirl.com, a collection of sports writing from around the country. (Be warned, heavy opinion quotient.)
 
The picks are divided into three groups
  • The Writers Division, featuring 16 contributors to themirl.com
  • The Fanatic Division, featuring picks from 11 team blogs
  • NFL Guru Division, featuring seven general sports sites (that's us!)
We're doing a little experiment with our picks. We're basing our early picks this year on last year's quality wins quotient, to see if there's any correlation from one year to the next. Once the quality wins quotient starts to give us a bead on this year's teams, we'll start to base our picks, of course, on 2005 quality wins. We expect our picks will probably improve considerably as the season wears on.


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