Home >> Archive
 Email  |  Print

Mathletics: Eagles' Red Zone D Up, Cards Down
Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 16, 2011

By Adam Dobrowolski 
Cold, Hard Football Facts Abacus Applicator

the hype machine is burning up in Philly, where the Eagles have been crowned as the offseason champions, largely due to the “coup de stat” of signing Nnamdi Asomugha.
 
However, statistical theory argues that the Asomugha signing may simply be a luxury pick. In this week’s look into the mathletics of the NFL, red zone defense enters the spotlight.

TRENDING UP: Philadelphia Eagles

After the offseason signings, the Philly sports public salivated the way Eric Cartman would if KFC ever made a buffet. Indeed, Asomugha blankets opposing receivers, which should greatly benefit fellow newcomer Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
 
However, Philadelphia was bound to improve upon the largely unimpressive 31 passing touchdowns allowed last year, whether or not they grabbed Asomugha.
 
The 2010 Eagles became one of nine teams in the Super Bowl Era to make the playoffs despite allowing 30 passing touchdowns or more in the regular season. They can thank a defense that allowed opponents to score on more than 78 percent of their red zone opportunities. (If only it was that easy for every troll to score on a Thursday night.) No team allowed more than 70 percent since a trio of teams pulled off the feat in 2004, according to Team Rankings.
 
A quick look at those three teams from 2004:
  1. Dallas Cowboys: 6-10, 76.2 red zone scoring percentage, 405 points allowed (27th), 5.5 yards per play allowed (24th)
  2. New York Giants: 6-10, 72.0 red zone scoring percentage, 347 points allowed (17th), 5.2 yards per play allowed (14th)
  3. Oakland Raiders: 5-11, 73.2 red zone scoring percentage, 442 points allowed (31st), 5.5 yards per play allowed (25th)
Now look at those three teams the following year:
  1. Dallas Cowboys: 9-7, 50.0 red zone scoring percentage, 308 points allowed (12th), 5.1 yards per play allowed (19th)
  2. New York Giants: 11-5, 53.2 red zone scoring percentage, 314 points allowed (14th), 5.0 yards per play allowed (14th)
  3. Oakland Raiders: 4-12, 45.8 red zone scoring percentage, 383 points allowed (25th), 5.1 yards per play allowed (21st)
 
(Note: the 2003 Chargers allowed opponents to score on exactly 70 percent of their red zone opportunities. they finished 4-12 and allowed 441 points. the 2004 Chargers followed with a 12-4 record and 313 points allowed.)
 
As the Cold Hard Football Facts show, all three teams saw defensive improvements in scoring defense and defensive efficiency. However, the scoring defense saw bigger improvements. Because there are fewer red zone drives than total drives, analysts shouldn’t put less confidence in red zone statistics than overall statistics. that bodes well for the Eagles, who finished 21st in scoring defense and 16th in yards per play allowed last year despite allowing a 57.6 completion percentage (8th).
 
Expect significant improvements for Philadelphia in 2011, but remember that sheer mathletics played just as big of a role as the offseason acquisitions.

TRENDING DOWN: Arizona Cardinals

Yes, the Cardinals were terrible last year, but it easily could’ve been worse. Not only Arizona did have a league-high 12 return touchdowns, including seven defensive touchdowns, but they had the league’s best red zone defense.
 
In the biggest statistical oddity all year, Arizona allowed 434 points despite a 39.1 percent red zone defense, according to Team Rankings. that meant Arizona’s opponents missed many opportunities to light up that leaky Cardinals defense.
 
Luck played a big role. Arizona’s opponents missed 11 field goals last year. Only Miami and Washington (11 each) missed that many field goals in scoring situations. Also, the Cardinals scored on four fumble returns on defense, while no other team scored more than once on a fumble recovery.
 
In most ways, fumble recoveries and opponents’ missed field goals result from random events. the football bounces funny ways. the kicker misses a field goal without any say from the other team.
 
From 2007 to 2009, seven teams allowed opponents to score on less than 78 percent of their red zone opportunities:
  1. 2007 Eagles: 8-8,  36.4 red zone scoring percentage, 300 points allowed (9th), 5.1 yards per play allowed (14th)
  2. 2007 Chiefs: 4-12,  37.2 red zone scoring percentage, 335 points allowed (14th), 5.2 yards per play allowed (19th)
  3. 2008 Ravens: 11-5,  34.8 red zone scoring percentage, 244 points allowed (3rd), 4.5 yards per play allowed (3rd)
  4. 2008 Colts: 12-4,  38.3 red zone scoring percentage, 298 points allowed (7th), 5.1 yards per play allowed (10th)
  5. 2008 Steelers: 12-4,  39.6 red zone scoring percentage, 223 points allowed (1st), 3.9 yards per play allowed (1st)
  6. 2009 49ers: 8-8,  38.6 red zone scoring percentage, 281 points allowed (4th), 5.0 yards per play allowed (6th)
  7. 2009 Redskins: 4-12,  39.0 red zone scoring percentage, 336 points allowed (18th), 5.1 yards per play allowed (11th)
 
Now look at those seven teams the following year:
  1. 2008 Eagles: 9-6-1,  53.5 red zone scoring percentage, 289 points allowed (4th, 4.4 yards per play allowed (2nd)
  2. 2008 Chiefs: 2-14,  53.7 red zone scoring percentage, 440 points allowed (29th), 6.0 yards per play allowed (29th)
  3. 2009 Ravens: 9-7,  45.8 red zone scoring percentage, 261 points allowed (3rd), 4.9 yards per play allowed (3rd)
  4. 2009 Colts: 14-2,  49.1 red zone scoring percentage, 307 points allowed (8th), 5.0 yards per play allowed (8th)
  5. 2009 Steelers: 9-7,  45.2 red zone scoring percentage, 324 points allowed (12th), 5.1 yards per play allowed (10th)
  6. 2010 49ers: 6-10,  47.2 red zone scoring percentage, 346 points allowed (16th), 5.1 yards per play allowed (8th)
  7. 2010 Redskins: 6-10,  49.1 red zone scoring percentage, 377 points allowed (21st), 5.9 yards per play allowed (30th)
Only the one team (2008 Eagles) improved its scoring defense, and that was by only 11 points despite a big improvement in defensive efficiency. Even with Arizona’s nightmarish 2010 season, the Cardinals can’t expect anything more from the defense than a slight improvement.

Adam Dobrowolski explains how statistical theory proves the Eagles will improve its red zone defense and the Cardinals won't replicate its 2010 red zone success.

East
South
North
West