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Belichick's Home for Disgruntled Little Wanderers
Cold, Hard Football Facts for July 28, 2011

By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts Incorrections Officer
 
Bill Belichick's Home for Disgruntled Little Wanderers adopted another troubled child today, trading a fifth-round pick to Washington for Albert Haynesworth.
 
You all know the Haynesworth story: 320 pounds of pure talent but two tons of trouble on and off the field. We don't need to rehash it all here. But it's not pretty.
 
The Patriots clearly don't care. Not saying they should. Just saying they don't.
 
Of course, you wouldn't care either if you just fielded one of the worst third-down defenses in modern history.
 
You already know that New England finished dead last in third-down defense in 2010. Opponents converted an incredible 47.14 percent of attempts last season.
 
But we just crunched the numbers and it's even worse than you think: Only four teams since 2000 were more inept on third down than the 2010 Patriots.
 
NFL's Worst Third-Down Defenses (since 2000)
 
Team
Third-Down Defense*
Team Record
1
2004 Raiders
47.42%
5-11
2t
2008 Chiefs**
47.39%
2-14
2t
2008 Colts**
47.39%
12-4
4
2000 Cardinals
47.30%
4-12
5
2010 Patriots
47.14%
14-2
* Opponent success rate on third down
** Statistical quirk: both the 2008 Chiefs and 2008 Colts allowed opponents to convert exactly 100 of 211 third-down attempts.
 
Even the 0-16 Lions of 2008 were better on third-down defense (45.7%) than the 2010 Patriots.
 
It's a statistical miracle, and a testament to the greatness of Tom Brady, that the Patriots managed the best record in the NFL with one of the worst third-down defenses in modern memory. The same can be said of Peyton Manning, who lifted the Colts to a 12-4 record in 2008 with a defense that was even worse on third-down defense than the one by which Brady was handicapped in 2010.
 
Both quarterbacks won MVPs for their Herculean efforts. Of course, both were quickly dumped without a taste of postseason success. Even the great ones can only go so far with defenses that simply cannot get off the field with any sense of regularity. The Patriots, for example, allowed the Jets to convert 6 of 13 third-down attempts in their divisional playoff loss back in January, a 46.2 success rate that mirrored almost perfectly the rate at which opponents converted against New England all season long.
 
Belichick's solution to this problem? He essentially sold his soul for another problem child. Hey, he has a good track record here: Corey Dillon and Randy Moss both came to New England with bad raps (and rap sheets). Both went on to career seasons. Dillon won a Super Bowl after years of frustration in Cincinnati. Moss was the centerpiece of the most prolific offense in NFL history, hauled in a record 23 TDs and helped lead the Patriots to the only 16-0 season ever – all after it seemed he was washed up on Oakland.
 
Haynesworth certainly has the talent to make an impact for New England. And if the deal is short and cheap, the risk is low. Plus, Belichick has an itchy trigger finger and has never been afraid to cut players who don't toe the company line. So Haynesworth, you must imagine, is on a short leash.
 
But is he the answer to the woes in New England? Can he instantly revitalize one of the worst third-down defenses in history? We took a look at our trusty Defensive Hog Index for the 2010 Patriots and for the teams on which Haynesworth has played. Third-down defense, as you may know, is a key component of the Defensive Hog Index.
We left out the 2010 Redskins because Haynesworth barely played and was obviously not happy when he did.
 
Haynesworth Defenses (rank in Defensive Hog Index and Third-Down)
Team
DHI Rank
Third-Down Defense (rank)
2010 Patriots
22nd
47.14% (32nd)
2009 Redskins
14th
39.7% (21st)
2008 Titans
5th
35.0% (6th)
2007 Titans
15th
42.2% (24th)
2006 Titans
29th
40.7% (20th)
2005 Titans
15th
35.5% (8th)
2004 Titans
19th
33.3% (7th)
2003 Titans
n/a*
27.7% (1st)
2002 Titans
n/a*
37.6% (14th)
* Our Defensive Hog Index data dates back ony to 2004
 
So the data from the past is not necessarily conclusive. The Titans and Redskins ranged from dominant in third-down defense (2003 Titans) to ho-hum (2006 and 2007 Titans, 2009 Redskins).
 
And the success of a defenses hinges on much more than the success of a single player among the 11 on the field at any given time. It also pays to note that Haynesworth has NEVER played a complete season. He logged a full 16 games only once, back in his rookie year of 2002. But he started just three games that year.
 
But it's safe to say that anything Haynesworth brings to the table will make the Patriots better than historically inept. And that's all that matters, it seems, to fans and to Belichick.

Bill Belichick's Home for Disgruntled Little Wanderers adopted another troubled child, trading a 5th-round pick for Albert Haynesworth. You might grab the problem child, too, if you just fielded one of the worst 3rd-down defenses in modern history.

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