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Atlanta's big move tops night of surprises
Cold, Hard Football Facts for April 29, 2011
 By Luis DeLoureiroCold, Hard Football Facts Royal Wedding Coordinator
As we do every year, the CHFF crew sat down to watch the NFL draft in eager anticipation of the night's first surprise.
To this point, the biggest surprise of the day had been the 270 average posted by the CHFF staff at the annual cholesterol screening. Surely nothing in the draft could top that - at least that's what we were saying during our celebratory kielbasa, Buffalo wing and mozzarella stick dinner.
But, only six picks into the 2011 draft, the Atlanta Falcons moved up 21 spots to take Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. Twenty-one! We'd have to do a little research, but we can't remember a team moving that many spots into the top 10.
There were other takeaways from the draft and we will address those in short order, but first let's address the Falcons big move.
We have not been shy in stating that teams should stay away from any receivers in the first round. There's a very high bust rate, and even when they do work out, they rarely improve a team's win/loss record.
We have come up with a few theories as to why Dimitroff made such a big move.
- Dimitroff had 9PM reservations at Davio's Northern Italian steakhouse in Atlanta.
- In an attempt to show off to his wife's cute friends during a dinner party, Dimitroff stood up, stated "watch what I can do!" picked up the phone and called the Cleveland Browns.
- Leery of the recent and unprecedented success of the Falcons, owner Arthur Blank called Dimitroff and asked him to do something stupid " for good old times".
There are a number of reasons why this trade just doesn't make sense.
First, as we stated above, first-round wide receivers (or as we commonly refer to them, shiny hood ornaments) have a very high bust rate, and, when they do work out, they very rarely have a major impact on the fate of a teams season.
Even if one could make the case that the Falcons are only a wide receiver away from eclipsing the Packers (and other elite teams) counting on a rookie wide receiver is a very tenuous proposition.
Randy Moss famously caught 17 touchdowns in his incredible rookie year. If Jones comes anywhere near that number Dimitroff can expect a parade in the streets of Atlanta and a statue in his honor. However, history suggests that most rookie WRs take three years to develop.
Hall of Famer Jerry Rice had 927 yards receiving and three touchdowns in his rookie year. Michael Irvin, another Hall of Famer, did not eclipse 1000 yards receiving until his fourth year. Cris Carter did not reach 1000 yards until his seventh season; Tim Brown took six seasons. Marvin Harrison (836 yards/8 TDs in his rookie season); Chad Johnson (329/1); Terrell Owens (520/4)....
There are exceptions, but, even wide receivers that are not busts rarely provide any benefit early in their careers. There's very little reason to suspect that Jones is that much better than all the stars that preceded him.
The second reason this appears to be a questionable decision for the Falcons is that they TRADED UP 21 SPOTS TO GET HIM!
According to the NFL draft chart made famous by Jimmy Johnson (which gives a value to every pick in the entire draft), the 27th pick – the one originally held by the Atlanta Falcons – is worth 680 points. The sixth pick is worth 1600 points. A move of that magnitude is not for the squeamish.
To put another way, using the points chart, the Atlanta Falcons could have given the Browns the 27th pick in every round of the this year's draft and still come up almost 400 points shy of what would be needed to make the deal. A 2012 first-rounder was an absolute necessity to make this deal happen. All of this for a player that probably won't be much help in 2011.
Finally, let's take a look at the recent history of major trades involving wide receivers. Keyshawn Johnson, Joey Galloway, Randy Moss and Roy Williams were all involved in major trades in the past several years. Johnson and Galloway were each dealt for multiple first-round picks – while Moss and Williams provided a return of a first rounder plus.
None of those four came close to providing that type of return on investment. The Falcons better hope Jones doesn't continue the trend.
A few other ... questionable ... decisions:
New Orleans traded up to land former Heisman winning running back Mark Ingram. There's a couple of reasons why this one doesn't make sense.
First, as we mentioned in the past, running back is a devalued position in the NFL. Second, thousand yard backs grow on trees.
But, what makes this selection (nevermind the trade up) such a shock is the Saints' recent history. They recently used a first round pick – number two overall – to select a Heisman winning running back - Reggie Bush. Despite that choice, they have been led in rushing the last two years by Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory – both undrafted free agents.
The Saints, better than anyone, should know that finding an adequate NFL running back is as difficult as finding a virgin at COMICON.
The Bengals took WR AJ Green number four overall. Okay, we get it, if we just keep repeating our belief that wide receivers cannot provide first-round value, people are going to start treating us like the crazy uncle who tells the same story every Thanksgiving.
But, in this case, one more rip seems appropriate. In 1993, the Cincinnati Bengals made what right now seems like the only good decision in the history of the franchise. They selected Carson Palmer.
The sports world was confused - and a little concerned - about the Bengals sudden ability to think lucidly.
But, eight years later, the Bengals have completely redeemed themselves by alienating Palmer to the point where he refuses to play for the team.
In last night's first round, with Palmer's little brother Jordan as their best option at quarterback, the Bengals decided to get the stud wide receiver.
Apparently, the Bengals feel they can get good "value" with a second-round quarterback tonight. Recent history suggests the Bengals are more likely to get "value" in the dumpster behind Applebee's on Queen Street.
As we explained last week, second-round quarterbacks just don't work out. But, realizing that would require that Mike Brown temporarily remove his head from his posterior ... Not happening.
So, the Bengals walk away from the first round of the 2011 draft with a stud WR and nobody to throw him the ball. That's like buying expensive new hubcaps - and.....dear we say....a shiny hood ornament - for the pickup truck you don't have.
We wonder if A.J. Green has ever met Peter Warrick.
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