1. Carolina – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
Needs-based grade: A
The Panthers were the worst passing team in football last year. They needed to make a move.
2. Denver – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Needs-based grade: A+
Denver was dead last in 2010 in scoring defense and sacks.
3. Buffalo – Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
Needs-based grade: A+
The Bills were dead last in 2010 on our Defensive Hog Index. The big question here is that it seems more dominant DTs were left on the board.
4. Cincinnati – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Needs-based grade: F-
As we said on SI.com, bad organizations make bad draft decisions, and Cincy is a bad organization. The team has already tried and failed to win with its receivers-first philosophy. The Bengals desperately need help on D.
5. Arizona – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Needs-based grade: A-
A potential shutdown corner who could provide a great boost to the NFL's 30th-ranked defense (27.1 PPG). Arizona does have bigger needs at QB, but will address that issue in free agency.
6. Atlanta – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Needs-based grade: B+
We'll never give an A to a team that drafts a receiver in the first round, for
obvious reasons to CHFF loyalists. But with that said, the Falcons struggled to get the ball down field in 2010 (No. 19 in Passing YPA). Keep in mind, though, this grade is based on statistical
need ... the bottom line is that the Falcons DESPERATELY overpaid the Browns, giving up five draft picks, including two first rounders, to fill that need by moving up 21 spots in the first round (1st, 2nd, 4th in 2011; 1st and 4th in 2012). They will live to regret the decision.
7. San Francisco – Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
Needs-based grade: D
San Francisco's greatest asset in 2010 was its No. 10 ranked Defensive Hogs, so this was a classic pick to accentuate a strength, not address a weakness – such as an offense that produced just 19.1 PPG last year.
8. Tennessee – Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Needs-based grade: C
The Titans have plenty of holes to fill, and quarterback is just one of them – there were actually bigger needs on defense (No. 20 on Defensive Hog Index; No. 21 in Defensive Passer Rating). But a QB could help – but maybe not one as inaccurate as Locker (55.4% completions in 2010).
9. Dallas – Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Needs-based grade: F
Dallas surrendered a franchise-worst 436 points in 2010, while offensively they ripped off 29.1 PPG in eight games under Jason Garrett.
10. Jacksonville – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Needs-based grade: F-
The Jags were 31st in Defensive Passer Rating and dead last in both Defensive Passing YPA and Defensive Quarterback Rating. Apparently, they thought Gabbert was a shutdown corner.
11. Houston – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Needs-based grade: B+
The Texans have been desperate for help on D since day one of the organization, consistently fielding poor defenses. But one can't help but question the team's defensive philosophies: despite two Defensive Rookies of the Year, the D still sucks. It's become and institutional anchor around the neck of Houston.
12. Minnesota – Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
Needs-based grade: B
The QB position was a disaster for the Vikings in 2010: No. 28 in average per pass attept and No. 30 in team-wide passer rating. But there were more prolific passers on the board when the Vikings reached for Ponder.
13. Detroit – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Needs-based grade: A++++
We're overflowing with praise for the Lions, for the first time ever, because it appears the organization has turned a corner on the field and in its understanding of how winners are built. The team improved defensively quite a bit in 2010, but still has plenty of room for growth. They appear to get some value with Fairley at No. 13 (who was a devestating interior defender last year) and they could have the most frightening defensive interior we've seen in years pairing him with Ndamukong Suh.
14. St. Louis – Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Needs-based grade: C
Coach Steve Spagnuolo has sent a very clear message to the NFL:
he's going to win with his Defensive Hogs. Last year, the improvement of the St. Louis Defensive Hogs was the great untold statistical story of the season: No. 32 on our Defensive Hog Index in 2009; No. 7 on the DHI in 2010. Personally, we love the direction he's taken the team. But the truth is that there were much greater statistical needs elsewhere.
15. Miami – Michael Pouncey, G, Florida
Needs-based grade: B+
With an average of 3.71 YPA, Miami ranked No. 29 running the football in 2010. The versatile Pouncey can play guard or center and should help boost the O-Hogs.
16. Washington – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
Needs-based grade: A
Shocker! The Redskins appeared to make a good personnel decision. The All-American Kerrigan was the most productive defensive lineman in college football last year, while Washington was No. 26 on our Defensive Hog Index and No. 30 rushing the passer.
17. New England – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Needs-based grade: D
The Patriots have free-agency questions on the offensive line. But it was also a deep unit that ranked No. 1 on our Offensive Hog Index from wire to wire in 2010. Meanwhile, the team is desperate for a pass rusher. Big missed opportunity for the Patriots with some great potential pass rushers still on the board.
18. San Diego – Corey Liuget, DE, Illinois
Needs-based grade: D
The Chargers tied with Pittsburgh in 2010 for the top spot on our Defensive Hog Index, yet doubled-down on the position here in the 2011 draft.
19. N.Y. Giants – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Needs-based grade: B
The Giants
were a statistically stout team that failed to win more often because of turnovers and efficiency. They had few real statistical needs. But you can't argue with adding a potential shutdown corner.
20. Tampa Bay – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Needs-based grade: A
If we had emotions, we'd love the decision. There were a lot of reasons
for optimism in Tampa last year. But the big weak link was on defense, where the Bucs couldn't stop the run (4.75 YPA) and ranked No. 30 on our Defensive Hog Index.
21. Cleveland – Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Needs-based grade: D
The Browns offense scored just 16.9 PPG in 2010. Only the Panthers were worse. Yup. Let's stock up on defensive linemen. When was the last time the Browns won a playoff game???
22. Indianapolis – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
Needs-based grade: D
Another high pick out of Offensive Lineman U. But the Colts boasted the NFL's best pass protectors in 2010 – and a defensive front that got pushed around like tackling dummies all year. Will they never learn?
23. Philadelphia – Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
Needs-based grade: D
Baylor must have had some great wars at practice between Watkins and Taylor, taken two picks earlier. So that's nice. But the Eagles, who fielded one of the most effective rushing teams in NFL history last year (5.45 YPA), had a much bigger need for a defensive gamebreaker.
24. New Orleans – Cameron Jordan, DE, California
Needs-based grade: B+
The Saints struggled to pressure the quarterback in 2010 (a Negative Pass Play on 7.97 percent of dropbacks) and their pass defense fell off badly from its playmaking form of 2009. Jordan has the potential to be a big help.
25. Seattle – James Carpenter, OT, Alabama
Needs-based grade: A-
The Seahawks reached the playoffs despite one of the worst offensive lines in football last year – No. 28 on our Offensive Hog Index, and were No. 30 rushing the football (3.70 YPA).
26. Kansas City – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Needs-based grade: B
The Chiefs were fairly stout in many areas last year, except in their downfield passing game. Matt Cassel and the Kansas City offense produce just 18 pass plays of 25+ yards, among the fewest in the league, and their statistical weak link was passing yards per attempt: 23rd league wide. They simply could not threaten defenses over the top. Only our proven knowledge that
WRs have limited impact on a team's capabilities prevent this from being a higher grade.
27. Baltimore – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Needs-based grade: B
The Ravens are desperate for run blockers , even if
nobody but us seems to know it. But CB is the most important position on defense. And if they nail the pick it will be a great long-term asset.
28. New Orleans – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Needs-based grade: B+
As we've proven over the years,
including this year, you simply do not need a great, high-profile 1,000-yard back to win in the NFL. The Saints proved that themselves in 2009. And maybe they should be a little gun shy after watching Reggie Bush fail to live up to his "once-in-a-lifetime" talent coming out of college. But Ingram could be a huge asset so late in the first round, especially after the team already addressed its bigger needs with Jordan. A big night for the Saints.
29. Chicago – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Needs-based grade: A+
The Bears could go nowhere but OL, not after fielding the worst Offensive Hogs in football last year. They couldn't run and they couldn't protect the passer. Carimi could become a desperately bedrock Hog.
30. N.Y. Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
Needs-based grade: B+
Lost amid the excitement over the Jets last year is the fact that the defense declined badly from its 2009 form – 236 PA in 2009, 304 PA in 2010. Wilkerson, a potentially versatile guy who can play all over the DL, could work well in Rex Ryan's complex schemes.
31. Pittsburgh – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Needs-based grade: C-
The Steelers have huge holes on the offensive line, while they're defensive front topped our Defensive Hog Index in 2010. But the organization clearly has a philosophy – and it certainly works for them, too.
32. Green Bay – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Needs-based grade: A
As
we noted before the draft, the Super Bowl champs really had just one glaring statistical need: boosting a mediocre offensive line that struggled to move defenders in the run game and struggled at times to protect Aaron Rodgers. If they hit on Sherrod, and Bryan Bulaga continues to develop, the Packers could have two great anchors at tackle for years to come.
Here's our immediate first-reaction needs-based grade for each first-round pick. Our grades are not based upon whether a player will pan out or not in the pros. We don't know. You don't know. The draft "pundits" do not know. It's all a crap shoot ... that we do know. 
