If your team is in need of a defensive line upgrade this off-season, the 2011 draft may be just what the doctor ordered.
When we unleashed our CHFF
anti-mock draft a few weeks ago, seven defensive linemen made our Top 32 Producers list – more than another other positional category (if you include two DE/OLB hybrid prospects, the number inflates to nine).
For better or for worse, the "pundits" seem to agree with our assessment. The draft firm of McShay, Kiper & Mayock predicts a record-setting number of defensive linemen will be selected in the first round.
Whether you worship at the altar of the Cold, Hard Football Facts or drink the Kiper Kool-Aid, one thing is clear: this appears to be a deep draft for d-line prospects.
That's good news for defensive coordinators, good news for all those teams
desperate for Defensive Hogs, and bad news for NFL quarterbacks.
As has been highlighted ad nauseam during our
Draft Primer series, NFL teams win football games by winning the battle in the air – on both sides of the ball.
To defend the pass, teams are
stocking up on cornerbacks. But that effort only covers one half of the equation – the part when the ball is already in the air. To ensure that ball is thrown as wobbly and inaccurately as possible, defensive coordinators are banking on their front four (or more) to apply constant pressure on the quarterback.
And by "banking," we mean they are willing to break the bank to acquire pass-rushing specialists by spending big first-round dollars.
Historically, defensive ends have held more value on draft day than their counterparts at the tackle position. But it is interesting to note that the DT's seem to be gaining ground on the DE's in recent years, at least when analyzing previous first round picks.
See below for evidence. From 1995-2004, there was a noticeable discrepancy between ends and tackles selected in the first round. But in the past six years, the tackles have narrowed the gap.
First round selections from 1995-2004:
Defensive ends - 43
Defensive tackles - 30
First round selections From 2005-2010:
Defensive ends - 22
Defensive tackles - 20
When you cast a wider net over the draft and include all rounds, the defensive ends hold a solid, but not dominant, edge.
All draft selections from 2001-2010:
Defensive ends - 235
Defensive tackles - 206
This year's draft class offers up some good lookin' prospects at both positions. Here's our list of the five most productive draft-eligible defensive linemen.
1. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
2010: 26 tackles for loss (led nation), five forced fumbles (2nd in nation), 12.5 sacks, 70 tackles
2. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
2010: 15 sacks (led nation), 24 tackles for loss, 17 quarterback pressures, 63 tackles
3. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
2010: 11.5 sacks, 24 tackles for loss, amazing stats considering his interior line position
4. Sam Acho, DE, Texas
2010: five fumble recovers (led nation), five forced fumbles (2nd in nation), 59 tackles, 17 tackles for loss, nine sacks and 18 quarterback pressures
5. Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
Career: started 38 games, 129 tackles, 29.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks and 9 forced fumbles
Here are the defensive linemen projected by the "pundits" to be taken first in the 2011 draft:
1. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
2010: 34 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks
2. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Career: 86 tackles, 13 sacks, two forced fumbles
* suspended for the 2010 season for illegal contact with an agent
3. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn - No. 3 above
4. Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
2010: 62 tackles, six sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss, one forced fumble
5. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
2010: 48 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks
You'll notice that our list shares only one player with the "pundits," Auburn's Nick Fairley. One notable name missing from our list is Alabama DT Marcell Dareus. Very good player, but when evaluating productivity on the field, Dareus doesn't stack up to others on our list.
Another note: North Carolina DE Robert Quinn is considered by many to be a Top 10 overall pick despite not playing a snap last fall (illegal contact with an agent). Sounds like a classic boom-bust pick to us.
So, what should we expect to see in this year's draft?
As long as the passing game rules the NFL, teams will continue to pay a premium to get after opposing quarterbacks. Defensive ends have proven over the years to be a popular first round choice, and tackles are gaining steam. With a surplus of productive talent at both d-line positions this year, you can expect a first round feeding frenzy.
By Todd DeVries
