We kicked off the 2010-11 playoffs with a sharp 3-1 mark against the spread during the wildcard round, though with a humble 2-2 record straight up. Hey, nobody else saw Seattle's upset over New Orleans coming, either. And we should have learned long ago that Peyton Manning in the playoffs is the worst bet in sports. Love to get one that back.

 

But, hey, we're still on the plus-side of the ledger once again. And, with just two weekends of football before the Super Bowl, we haven't suffered the bitter sting of a losing week ATS since Halloween.

 

On to the divisional round ...  

 

These bitter AFC North rivals split two hard-fought and physical regular-season games, both of which were decided by three points in the final minutes. Each team claimed a win on the other's home field.

 

The last time these two played in December, Ben Roethlisberger's nose was bent like a crowbar (see picture below) and Ray Lewis said afterward that he hadn't seen that much bloodshed since his last night out on the town.

 

OK, we made up that last part.

 

Baltimore's win at Pittsburgh back in early October counts in the standing, of course, but should be marked with an asterisk: Roethlisberger was still serving his four-game suspension and Charlie Batch was the Steelers' QB that day.

 

But no matter who's at quarterback, these teams are evenly matched and we're expecting another bloody slugfest in Saturday's rubber match.

 

The teams are virtually dead even when it comes to efficiency: Pittsburgh is No. 2 in Bendability and Baltimore is No. 3; but the Ravens are No. 9 in Scoreability and the Steelers are No. 10. And, not surprisingly, these teams boast two of the toughest and stingiest pass defenses in the NFL. The Steelers finished No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating; the Ravens finished at No. 5.

 

But here's the big difference between the two clubs:

 

Pittsburgh's No. 1-ranked Defensive Hogs should dominate Baltimore's No. 22-ranked Offensive Hogs. They Ravens like to run the ball: only five teams rushed more than Baltimore's 487 attempts in 2010. But the truth is that the Ravens don't run it very well. Baltimore averaged just 3.76 YPA this season. Only four teams were worse.

 

The Ravens have already proved in two games that they couldn't run the ball against Pittsburgh's league-best run defense (3.01 YPA). Baltimore totaled 47 rush attempts for just 113 yards, 2.4 YPA, and 1 TD.

 

Pittsburgh, for its part, was a bit more productive on the ground, but not much: 51 attempts, 138 yards, 2.7 YPA and 2 TD.

 

So expect Baltimore to be one-dimensional on offense. And without a run game, they'll be forced to put all their hopes on the brawny shoulders of Big Joe Flacco.

 

But we're not sure that Give it to Joe is a winning formula. After all, Baltimore is no particularly adept at protecting the passer (9.42% Negative Pass Plays, 18th) while Pittsburgh is one of the best at forcing Negative Pass Plays (10.47%, seventh).

 

So Big Joe, without a run game, might find himself under Big Pressure – especially if Pittsburgh's game-changing safety Troy Polamalu is back on the field and in top form. He has not practiced all week.

 

As usual, the quarterback matchup will likely be the determining factor, and the Steelers get the checkmark there.

 

Roethlisberger is 8-2 in his postseason career, has two Super Bowl rings, and carries an 87.2 career playoff passer rating into this game. Flacco, on the other hand, is 4-2 in the postseason, but has just a 61.7 career passer rating in the playoffs and has thrown six INTs and just three TDs in his playoff starts.

 

Flacco, to his credit, is coming off his best postseason performance last week at Kansas City (115.4 rating). But the Pittsburgh defense he'll face Saturday is a much better unit (73.8 Defensive Passer Rating).

 

If the Ravens can't run the ball effectively – and every indicator says that they can't – everything is going to fall on Flacco's shoulders, and we're not sure he's up to the task at this point in his career.

 

Big Ben, however, has proven he can get it done in the biggest games. In fact, the last time we saw Roethlisberger in the postseason, he was leading one of the greatest drives in Super Bowl history.

 

We're expecting another tight battle in this one, but we feel that the home field, their superior Defensive Hogs and their edge at quarterback combine to give the Steelers the upper hand and an inside track to the AFC title game next week.

 

 

These two teams hooked up in one of the better regular season games of 2010 back on November 28 in Atlanta. The Falcons claimed a 20-17 win on a field goal by Matt Bryant with 9 seconds left in a game that perfectly captured the essence of both teams.

 

While on the topic, just be thankful that nobody has yet captured our essence. We think they'd call it, Eau De Humanity.

 

The statistical juggernaut Packers outgained Atlanta 418-294 in total yards, got a huge 344-yard passing effort from Aaron Rodgers, and yet still scored just 17 points. The Pack lost the game because they lost the turnover battle (-1) and committed too many stupid penalties (8 accepted penalties for 66 yards).

 

In fact, it was an undisciplined play on special teams – a facemask penalty on a kickoff return – which put the Falcons in position to mount a short drive to set up the game-winning field goal, just moments after the Packers had tied the game at 17 (Rodgers to Jordy Nelson TD pass) with less than a minute left.

 

Atlanta, on the other hand, did that day what they've done all year: avoid turnovers (+13, third in the NFL), limit other mistakes (3.6 penalties per game, fewest in the NFL) and capitalize on the other team's gaffes.

 

It's Green Bay's inability to play smart football and Atlanta's ability to both avoid their own mistakes and take advantage of the other team's errors that makes us think this will be another close game.

 

But in so many other ways, Green Bay is a scary team with the ability to walk into any arena and run with anybody.

 

Green Bay topped three different Quality Stats this year: Bendability, Defensive Passer Rating and, perhaps most importantly, Passer Rating Differential. Remember, we introduced PRD last year to demonstrate the importance of winning the wars of passing efficiency. The Saints topped the indicator in its first year of existence. The Saints won the Super Bowl. Green Bay is a threat to do the same this year, IF they play up to their capabilities.

 

Green Bay also owns the No. 2 scoring defense in football. So, despite their humble 11-6 record, they're very dangerous. Remember, the only team to put a scare in New England since Thanksgiving was the Packers – and they nearly won a game in Foxboro with their back-up quarterback.

 

The Falcons are a very efficient team: No. 2 in Scoreability, No. 5 in Bendability. And they boast the league's fifth-ranked Offensive Hogs, primarily because they avoid Negative Pass Plays (second) and convert nearly half their third downs (third).

 

But elsewhere, Atlanta is a statistically mediocre team: No. 14 in Defensive Passer Rating and a poor No. 25 on the Defensive Hog Index.

 

Even quarterback Matt Ryan – Matty Ice – disappoints when put under the microscope of the Cold, Hard Football Facts. And believe you us, we're experts when it comes to disappointing people.

 

Ryan produced a very below-average 6.49 YPA through their air this season, 27th in the NFL and down in Mark Sanchez (6.49) and Shaun Hill (6.46) territory. In terms of Passing Yards Per Attempt (our team-wide indicator), the Falcons were No. 19 (5.95 PYPA).

 

Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, had another tremendous season with a 101.2 passer rating (third) and a gaudy average of 8.26 YPA (second). The Packers finished third in the NFL in Passing YPA (7.12).

 

Rodgers has also put up eye-popping numbers in the postseason, too. He's just 1-1 as a starter, but the loss in last year's wildcard round was one for the ages: a 51-45 overtime shootout with the ultimate big-game gunslinger himself, Kurt Warner. Rodgers torched the Eagles last week, too.

 

We don't really trust the Packers: a team exhibiting that kind of statistical dominance over a full season should not have lost six games. That said, Green Bay has now won three "must win" games in a row over teams that boasted at least 10 wins this year. And, after struggling to run the football all season due to injury problems (3.81 YPA), it appears the Packers have found a "go-to" back in unheralded rookie James Starks (23 carries, 123 yards at Philly last week).

 

Atlanta lost just once at home this season and Green Bay was just 3-5 on the road, so it won't be easy for the Packers on Saturday. But in the end, we'll roll the dice with the statistically dominant team that seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time.

 

Raise your hand if you had the Seahawks with the moneyline, the over and career days from Matt Hasselbeck and Marshawn Lynch, while putting 41 on the scoreboard to knock off the defending champ Saints last week.

 

 

There is no logical explanation why the Seattle offense, which averaged just 19.4 PPG and was outscored by a wide margin (-97 point differential) during the regular season, suddenly turned into the 1998 Vikings against the Super Bowl champs last week.

 

But the much-maligned Seahawks, who entered the playoffs last week as the first-ever 7-9 division winner, played out of their minds on offense against New Orleans and earned their way into this divisional-round matchup with the Bears.

 

Seattle is suddenly a dangerous team, with a pair of consecutive do-or-die victories under its belt. And Chicago is a vulnerable. So these factors make for a very compelling battle.

 

The Seahawks were one of the worst road teams in the NFL this season (2-6). But they notched the first of those two wins at Chicago, 23-20, back on October 17. The culprit that day for Chicago was their Achilles' heel all season: the worst Offensive Hogs in the NFL, which allowed a Negative Pass Play on an astonishing 14.6% of dropbacks and was torched by Seattle for six sacks – including one for a safety.

 

Seattle's offense also had a pretty good day back in October, too. Hasselbeck threw for 242 yards (1 TD, 0 INTs) and Justin Forsett and Lynch combined to rush for 111 yards on 27 carries (4.1 YPA) against Chicago's stout defense.

 

That game in October aside, however, Chicago is clearly the better team across-the-board in this matchup, especially on defense: the Bears are No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating, No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 6 on the Defensive Hog Index.

 

In other words, the defense Seattle will be facing this Sunday is far superior to the Swiss cheese unit that New Orleans brought with them to Qwest Field last week. Both the weather and the crowd will be less hospitable to the Seahawks than what they found last week at home, too.

 

There are few quarterbacks against whom Chicago's Jay Cutler has an advantage. But he certainly had an advantage in efficiency (86.3 passer rating) over Seattle's Hasselbeck (73.2) during the regular season.

 

But don't discount Hasselbeck's experience. He's one of three Super Bowl quarterbacks remaining in the playoff field and the only one in the NFC. He's got 10 postseason starts under his belt; the rest of the NFC's starting QBs have combined for three. Cutler, meanwhile, is the only one of the eight quarterbacks still remaining who has yet to make a postseason appearance.

 

And Hasselbeck proved his postseason chops last week, picking the best possible time to unleash his best game in years (22 of 35, 62.9%, 272 yards, 7.8 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT, 113.0 rating), while outgunning the reigning Super Bowl MVP, Drew Brees.

 

So Seattle has already proven it can win in Chicago. And it has already proven it can win in the playoffs. But momentum can only carry a team so far and it's hard to expect a repeat performance like the one we saw last week out of a 7-9 team.

 

The Bears are a better team, especially on defense. They're coming off a healing bye week and will be playing at home, and probably in "Bear Weather" as well.

 

 

The Jets knocked off the Colts last week and coach Rex Ryan hasn't been this excited since 2-for-1 pantyhose day at Walmart.

 

The national media got what they wanted, too: New York's return trip to Foxboro for a rubber match against the Patriots with more characters and storylines than a Tolstoy novel.

 

Ryan and his players wasted no time mouthing off, as is their wont, about how this game will be different than the last meeting in Foxboro back on December 6, when the Patriots humiliated New York, 45-3. Ryan has already declared this to be a "personal" battle between him and Bill Belichick.

 

The Jets have one thing right: Expecting New England to win this game by 42 points is indeed unrealistic. Expecting the Jets to win this game period, however, also seems unrealistic.

 

The Jets held Peyton Manning and the Colts to just 16 points last week, which would be an excellent accomplishment – if not for the fact that somebody holds the Colts to 16 points or less every year in the playoffs. It's a tradition. Like Hanukkah.

 

New England, meanwhile, fields the league's No. 1 scoring offense (32.4 PPG) and represents a whole different set of challenges. Tom Brady is playing perhaps the best football of his career, as evidenced by his 111.0 passer rating and truly remarkable 36 TDs against 4 INT.

 

Brady also has a full complement of weapons around him, while Indy's Peyton Manning did not last week. And New England runs the ball better than the Colts and better than many analysts realize. The Patriots averaged 4.35 YPA (10th), totaled 1,973 yards on the ground (ninth) and their 19 rushing TDs were the second most in the NFL.

 

It's a potent all-around offense. New England may not score 45 again in this game, but New York's offense clearly has its work cut out for it on Sunday if it's going to run with the Bulls in New England's Pigskin Pamplona.

 

However, the Jets have one advantage: it's in the trenches, where their No. 6-ranked Offensive Hogs meet up against New England's weakest link, its No. 22-ranked Defensive Hogs. The Jets averaged 4.45 YPA on the ground this year (8th). The Patriots surrendered 4.23 YPA (16th). New England also lost two Defensive Hogs to IR this week (Mike Wright, Ron Brace).

 

New York's O-Hogs vs. New England's D-Hogs is a huge matchup to watch on Sunday, because it could very well be the key to the Jets keeping it close, or even winning the game. Of course, the Jets ripped off 152 yards on 31 attempts (4.9 YPA) back on December 6 – and have only a 45-3 loss to show for it.

 

The problem is that the Patriots have the edge in most other areas, especially in terms of momentum and in the most important area, at quarterback.  

 

In terms of momentum, it's hard not to be amazed at what the Patriots have done over the second half of the year: they're 8-0 and have destroyed just about everything in their path. They outscored those eight teams by a total of 299-125 (37.4 PPG to 15.6 PPG) and five of their victims were playoff teams. Four of them are still alive here in the final eight.

 

The mother stat that that best signifies New England's dominance is Passer Rating Differential: an unbelievable +74.2 since Thanksgiving.  

 

Brady has been playing at a different level than everyone else this season. He hasn't thrown an interception since October 17; Mark Sanchez has thrown seven interceptions in two career games at Foxboro, including three in the December loss.

 

The Patriots finished No. 2 in Passing Yards Per Attempt while Brady turned in an MVP performance in 2010. Mark Sanchez, on the other hand, had a 75.3 rating this season and submitted a 62.4 rating against the Colts last week.

 

But as we've noted in the past, Sanchez has a little John Elway in him – the penchant for playing subpar for most of the game and then playing flawlessly in the final couple of minutes to help the Jets snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. He did it again last Saturday, in fact, leading the Jets on a game-winning field goal drive in the final minute with some very good throws in that pressure-cooker situation on the road.

 

Sanchez definitely seems to have the poise needed to succeed in big games (he's already 3-1 in his postseason career). But his overall performance must improve, and fast, if the Jets are to win this game on Sunday.

 

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that New York's offensive line controls the clock and keeps Brady off the field long enough to hold New England's point total down to a manageable level. But a lot of things have to go right for the Jets to win this game, and controlling the clock with their ground game is just one of them.

 

A career performance out of Sanchez is more important. Remember, the Jets won the first game handily back in September not because they – yawn – "established the run." They won handily back in September because Sanchez unleashed the best game of his career (124.3 passer rating, 3 TD passes).

 

Barring Sanchez's greatest performance ever, Brady and the Patriots simply have too much firepower for the Jets.