Teri Hatcher's heaving bosoms have been a truly inspirational force of righteousness and good for Pigskin-Kind over the last couple months.

 

Our real and spectacular picks have lived up to their billing with an 89-61 (.593) performance against the spread since Week 7; and a 73-50 (.608) mark ATS since Week 9.

 

And remember, we don't pick and choose our spots like that asshole with the 800 number you see on TV. We pick every game, every week – and we've consistently outsmarted the wise guys for two years running.

 

With 33 weeks in the books over the past two seasons, here's what our picks have looked like ATS:

Here in 2010, we've gone the entire months of November and December without a single losing week ATS.

 

So stick your face between those heaving Cold, Hard Football Facts and motorboat 'em, you old sailor you.

 

Our second-half surge confirms what you've always known: the validity of our Quality Stats grow stronger as we gather more evidence about each team over the course of a season.

Here's our week-by-week performance in 2010:

 

Week 1: 8-7 straight; 7-6 ATS

Week 2: 10-6 straight, 7-8 ATS

Week 3: 11-5 straight, 12-4 ATS

Week 4: 8-6 straight, 5-9 ATS

Week 5: 9-5 straight, 7-7 ATS

Week 6: 8-6 straight; 4-10 ATS

Week 7: 8-6 straight, 10-4 ATS

Week 8: 7-6 straight, 6-7 ATS     

Week 9: 10-3 straight; 8-5 ATS   

Week 10: 6-8 straight; 11-3 ATS

Week 11: 13-3 straight, 10-6 ATS              

Week 12: 11-5 straight; 8-8 ATS                

Week 13: 13-3 straight; 10-6 ATS              

Week 14: 11-5 straight, 8-8 ATS

Week 15: 9-7 straight; 8-8 ATS   

Week 16: 10-6 straight; 10-6 ATS              

Year to date: 152-87 straight (.636), 131-105 ATS (.555)

 

The Patriots have already locked up home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and the Dolphins have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

 

So neither team has anything to play for on Sunday. In fact, the only thing on the line of any note is New England's attempt to join San Francisco as the only franchises in NFL history with four 14-win seasons. But we doubt Belichick & Co. care much about that bit of trivia.

 

The Patriots, as you probably imagine, dominate the all-important passing game comparisons (No. 3 in Passing Yards Per Attempt to Miami's No. 22; No. 3 in Passer Rating Differential to Miami's No. 20). New England is also the far more efficient team, especially on offense, ranking No. 1 in Scoreability to Miami's pathetic 31st ranking.

 

Like everybody else, we're not sure, however, how much a banged-up Tom Brady is going to play in this game. Assuming that backup Brian Hoyer plays at least a half, we like the Dolphins' No. 3-ranked Defensive Hogs to keep the Patriots' No. 1 scoring offense in check. But Miami is so bad offensively we can't see them being the team to end New England's 26-game regular season home winning streak in games started by Brady.

 

 

This game is almost as meaningless as the Miami/New England matchup, but at least the Jets come into the game with an outside shot to improve their AFC playoff seeding from 6th to 5th with a win, and a lot of help.

 

This game also represents a chance for the Jets to finish with 11 or more regular season wins for the first time since Bill Parcells was their head coach and Bill Belichick was their defensive coordinator (1998). 

 

Neither team passes the ball very efficiently (Buffalo is No. 28 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, New York is No. 26). But the Jets at least defend the pass pretty well (No. 12 in Defensive Passer Rating).

 

Meanwhile, Buffalo's fall-off from the No. 2 spot on our Defensive Passer Rating Index in 2009 all the way to No. 27 this year is one of the main reasons why the Bills have just four wins. Buffalo also has the worst Defensive Hogs in the NFL, which doesn't bode well going up against a Jets' rushing attack that averages a very solid 4.33 YPA (13th).

 

The Jets win the Passer Rating Diffferential battle (No. 17 to No. 26 for Buffalo), and they should also win this game by a fairly comfortable margin.

 

 

One of Cincy's four wins this season came at the expense of the Ravens, believe it or not, back in Week 2 (15-10 in Cincinnati).

 

A lot has changed since then, of course. The Ravens enter Sunday's game in Baltimore with a playoff berth already in hand and with an outside shot to gain a first-round playoff bye with a win, and a Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland. Not surprisingly, Baltimore is better than Cincinnati in every Quality Stats comparison, with big edges in both efficiency indicators (No. 5 in Bendability to Cincinnati's No. 29; No. 11 in Scoreability to Cincinnati's No. 20) and in the overall passing game (No. 4 in Passer Rating Differential to Cincinnati's No. 15).

 

The Bengals, however, come into this game on a two-game winning streak and fresh off an upset win that knocked San Diego out of playoff contention last week. The Bengals have also played hard, if not very well, for Marvin Lewis all season long and appear to be launching a late-season bid to save his head coaching job.

 

Baltimore wins, but Cincinnati rarely gets blown out. 

 

 

The Saints kept their slim hopes for a division title and a first-round playoff bye alive by smothering the Falcons with a suffocating and opportunistic defense Monday night.

 

Either way, New Orleans will be in the post-season and will have a shot to defend their Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay still has a shot at the playoffs if they win this game, but they also need more help than the cast of "Celebrity Rehab with Dr. Drew" to make that dream a reality.

 

This matchup is pretty even from a Quality Stats perspective. Tampa Bay is actually superior in Passer Rating Differential (No. 6 vs. No. 9 for New Orleans).

 

That said, there are three huge factors in New Orleans' favor going into this game (aside from being at home): Their No. 5-ranked Offensive Hogs, who are the best in the NFL at converting on third down, will be lining up against Tampa Bay's No. 31 Defensive Hogs, who are 29th in the NFL in opponent's third down conversion percentage; they are 3-2 against Quality Opponents this season, while Tampa Bay has yet to defeat a Quality Opponent all year (0-5); and the Saints won the first meeting between these two teams in Tampa with a 31-6 blowout back in Week 6.

 

Simply put, the Saints are the better team, they're at home and they have incentive to win this game.

 

Just when we thought things couldn't get much worse for the 2010 Panthers, they have to close out one of the worst seasons in franchise history by facing a motivated and probably pissed off Falcons team this week.

 

Atlanta blew its first chance to wrap up the NFC South and the NFC's No. 1 seed with a loss to the Saints on Monday night. Perhaps they'll take out their frustrations on the Panthers.

 

Carolina's defense, as we've noted a number of times this year, actually gives the club something to build on if it can find a quarterback.  The unit is No. 8 in both our Defensive Hog and Defensive Passer Rating indices, but the Panthers give up a lot of cheap points, as their No. 30 ranking in our Bendability Index confirms. Blame part of that problem on the fact that the inept Carolina offense repeatedly puts the defense in tough situations.

 

Offensively, Carolina is one of the worst teams we've seen in a long time: 30th or worse in all four of our key offensive Quality Stats and an NFL-worst in scoring (12.4 PPG).

 

Atlanta remains a very efficient team (No. 4 in Bendability and No. 3 in Scoreability) and has a huge edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 11 vs. No. 32 for Carolina).

 

This one should be over by halftime as the Falcons guarantee themselves the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

 

 

Break up the Lions!

 

Detroit has won three in a row, including two straight on the road after a smashingly successful tour of the Sunshine State the past two weeks. Minnesota actually played like the Vikings team we expected to see all season long in upsetting Philadelphia last Tuesday night, as the absence of BrettFavre from the starting lineup gave them a fighting chance, and they took advantage of it by rallying behind rookie QB Joe Webb (226 all-purpose yards, 1 rush TD, 87.8 rating).

 

Old Yeller (concussion) hasn't been completely ruled out of this game yet, because Vikings' coach Leslie Frazier doesn't have the cojones to tell him that Webb is his man right now. But we still expect, and hope, that BrettFavre has finally taken his last snap in the NFL.

 

As for this game, the key to Detroit's semi-resurgence this year has been a fairly efficient offense (No. 13 in Scoreability) and a much-improved defense (No. 17 Defensive Hogs, No. 16 in Bendability). Detroit's pass defense is still bad (No. 25 in Defensive Passer Rating), but no longer atrocious.

 

The Quality Stats battle is pretty even in this one, but the Lions are the more efficient team (No. 16 in Bendability and No. 13 in Scoreabilty; Minnesota is No. 20 and No. 30, respectively) and they have the edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 22 to No. 29 for Minnesota).

 

Minnesota won the first meeting by two TDs back in Week 3, but that was a long time ago, against a very different Detroit team.

 

If BrettFavre sits and Webb plays, it will go down to the wire in favor of the Lions.

 

 

These two teams really love to run the ball and do it very, very well. The Raiders average 4.90 YPA (second) and KC averages 4.77 YPA (third). Meanwhile, KC's Jamaal Charles (216 attempts, 1,380 yards, 6.39 YPA) will, in all likelihood, join Jim Brown in 1963 (6.40 YPA) and Barry Sanders in 1997 (6.13 YPA) as the only three members of the 200 carry-6.0 YPA club.

 

The big difference between the teams lies in the passing game, where the Chiefs, behind Matt Cassel's 98.8 rating (27 TDs, only 5 INTs) have a big advantage over Jason Campbell (83.9 rating) and Oakland.

 

KC ranks No. 14 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, while the Raiders are at No. 21, and the Raiders' pass defense (No. 24 in Defensive Passer Rating) is not very good either (KC is a strong No. 5 in Defensive Passer Rating). Add it all up and KC wins the Passer Rating Differential battle handily (No. 5 to No. 27 for Oakland).

 

The last meeting was won in OT by the Raiders in Oakland, but KC has a shot to clinch the No. 3 overall seed in the AFC with a win Sunday, so they should be well motivated.

 

 

The Steelers have a simple equation on Sunday: beat the Browns, clinch the AFC North and a first round playoff bye as the AFC's No. 2 seed. The Browns have cooled off in recent weeks after a hot streak in the middle of the season, and their biggest weapon, RB Peyton Hillis (1,164 yards, 4.4 YPA), is battling sore ribs.

 

Pittsburgh sweeps all seven keynote Quality Stats comparisons between the two teams, including a solid edge in all three phases of the passing game (No. 7 in Passer Rating Differential vs. No. 16 for Cleveland). The Steelers also continue to field one of the more dominant defenses in the NFL (No. 2 in Bendability, No. 2 Defensive Hogs, No. 1 scoring defense).

 

Pittsburgh dominated the first meeting between the teams at Heinz Field, and the Steelers need this game badly. Cleveland, on the other hand, looks like a team ready to start the offseason.

 

 

The Jaguars technically still have a shot to win the AFC South on Sunday with a win in Houston.

 

Right, and the typical CHFF troll technically has a shot to nail a Victoria's Secret model.

 

Jacksonville gagged away its chance to win its first ever AFC South title by blowing back-to-back games against the Colts and Redskins the last two weeks. Jacksonville will be without QB David Garrard for this game (out with a finger injury).

 

Because of their terrible pass defense (No. 31 in Defensive Passer Rating), the Jaguars will need to score lots of points to beat a Houston team that still has our No. 3 Offensive Hogs and still ranks No. 7 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, so Garrard's absence on Sunday does not bode well.

 

The Texans, of course, have fallen apart in recent weeks, undone by their league-worst pass defense (No. 32 in Defensive Passer Rating) and just a bad defense all around.

 

But the Texans still have their strong passing offense, and they still have Arian Foster (1,436 yards, 4.9 YPA). Against a bad Jacksonville defense and a shorthanded Jacksonville offense, that should be enough to let Houston finish the 2010 season with a bang.

 

 

These two 5-10 teams are pretty much equal in their ineptitude, although, by and large, the 49ers have been a little less inept than the Cardinals this season.

 

Arizona, behind 12 non-offensive TDs, continues to rank an anomalous 8th in our Scoreability Index, putting them far ahead of San Francisco (No. 29) in that category. Arizona also has a much better pass defense than the 49ers (No. 18 in Defensive Passer Rating vs. No. 28).

 

But San Francisco is more efficient passing the ball downfield (No. 19 in Passing Yards Per Attempt vs. No. 31 for Arizona).

 

The X-factor in this one seems to be Arizona's ineptitude on the road this season (1-6). The Cardinals have been so bad away from Arizona this year that they even lost to the Panthers in Charlotte two weeks ago. The 49ers also won the first meeting in Glendale rather easily (27-6), so expect San Francisco to begin the post-Mike Singletary era in style.

 

 

The Packers sprung back to life after two straight losses by pounding the Giants last week, putting themselves in a position to control their own playoff destiny this week. The Bears clinched a first-round bye when the Eagles lost Tuesday night, but still have some motivation: an outside shot at the No. 1 seed. They need a win Sunday and a lot of help: as in losses by both the Falcons and Saints.

 

Not likely.

 

In any case, both Chicago and Green Bay rank in the top 10 in five of our seven keynote Quality Stats, and actually rank Nos. 1-2 in Defensive Passer Rating (Green Bay is 1, Chicago 2).

 

The Packers are also No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential (Chicago is No. 10) and No. 1 in Bendability (Chicago is No. 8). The Bears, however, get the best of Green Bay in Scoreability (No. 2 vs. No. 9 for Green Bay) and on the Defensive Hog Index (No. 5 vs. No. 11 for Green Bay).

 

But the Packers have a big advantage on defense when their No. 11 Defensive Hogs line up against Chicago's league-worst Offensive Hogs; and in the passing game, Green Bay ranks No. 2 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, while Chicago ranks a mediocre 17th.

 

The last time these two teams met the Packers shot themselves in the foot repeatedly (committed 18 accepted penalties, allowed a special teams TD, and turned the ball over twice), yet still only lost by three points in OT. We expect Green Bay to minimize the mistakes this time, and lock up a playoff spot.

 

 

The Colts have won three in a row since they started heeding our advice and made more of a commitment to the running game (more on that soon).

 

Last week at Oakland, Peyton Manning threw two picks and had just a 76.9 rating. But Indy rushed for 191 yards and beat the Raiders at their own game en route to a 31-26 win. Indy's winning streak began on December 9 with a win against these same Titans in Nashville (30-28).

 

On paper, this is a close matchup. Tennessee, despite its 6-9 record, is threatening to finish the season in the top 10 in both our Bendability and Scoreability indices, an unheard of level of efficiency for a losing team. The Titans (No. 18 Offensive Hogs) also average 4.4 YPA on the ground, so the Quality Stats say that they should be able to run the ball at will against Indy's No. 30-ranked Defensive Hogs (4.71 yards per carry allowed).

 

But Indy's D-Hogs managed to limit a great Oakland rushing attack to just 80 yards on 20 carries on the road last week, and also held Jacksonville to 67 yards on 22 carries the week before; so it appears that Indy's rush defense is improving at just the right time.

 

In the end, of course, the Colts' trump card is Manning (91.4 rating) over Kerry Collins (77.4 rating). And the Colts have the advantage in Passer Rating Differential (No. 13 vs. No. 19 for Tennessee).

 

The Colts appear to be "peaking at the right time" as the old cliché goes. Expect them to celebrate another division title when this one's over.

 

 

Perhaps no team in history has done less with more than the 2010 Chargers.

 

San Diego still holds down a top 10 slot in five of our seven keynote Quality Stats, including No. 1 rankings in Passing Yards Per Attempt and on our Defensive Hog Index, and a No. 2 ranking in Passer Rating Differential. Yet San Diego is 8-7 and out of the playoff picture, with this one meaningless game at Denver left to go and fresh off an embarrassing no-show loss at Cincinnati last week.

 

As for this game, it's a mismatch on paper, like most San Diego games are. Sadly for the Chargers, games aren't played on paper.

 

The Chargers dominate the Broncos in every Quality Stat that matters, including huge advantages in the passing game (No. 2 in Passer Rating Differential vs. No. 21 for Denver).

 

But the Broncos are now driven by Tebow Power! The rookie QB lit up the Texans last week (308 passing yards, 89.4 rating) and has a season rating of 100.7 so far (and he's also rushed for 133 yards and 5 TDs).

 

Tebow gives the Broncos a fighting chance in this game, but we think it would be typical of the Chargers, with the pressure to perform completely gone now, to turn all of that statistical star power into a dominant victory this week.

 

 

In just nine short days, the Eagles went from Big Play juggernauts and possible Super Bowl favorites to playing on wildcard weekend. Those are the consequences of Philly's inept performance in a 24-14 home loss to the sad-sack Vikings last Tuesday night.

 

To top it all off, Michael Vick, who reportedly has a quad injury, is not certain to play in the regular season finale. The good news for Philly fans is that Dallas, which has sported one of the most efficient passing offenses in the NFL this season behind both Tony Romo and Jon Kitna (No. 5 in Passing Yards Per Attempt), is down to its third string QB for this game, rookie Stephen McGee (102.8 rating in a little over a half against Arizona last week).

 

The Eagles top Dallas in every category except the aforementioned Passing Yards Per Attempt Index (Philadelphia is No. 9). The Eagles win the Passer Rating Differential category handily (No. 8 vs. No. 18 for Dallas), and the Cowboys' terrible pass defense (No. 30 in Defensive Passer Rating) has been an inviting target for all NFL quarterbacks this season.

 

Even if Vick sits this one out, Kevin Kolb (85.3 rating) could still have a pretty good day.

 

 

Good Lord, what has happened to the Giants?

 

Four and a half quarters ago, New York led the Eagles by 21 points and seemed headed for the NFC East crown and a potential first round playoff bye. Since then they've been outscored 73-17, have fallen to 9-6 and have lost control of their playoff destiny.

 

With four more ball-breaking INTs at Green Bay last week, Eli Manning has now thrown a league-high 24 picks this season and is the main reason why the Giants are minus-6 in turnover ratio. The Giants remain a dominant team in the trenches (No. 3 Defensive Hogs and No. 9 Offensive Hogs), but inefficiency on both sides of the ball (No. 25 in Bendability; No. 18 in Scoreability) has been their Achilles' heel all year long.

 

The good news for New York is that their opponents in this must-win game, the Redskins, aren't very good at much of anything. Washington QB Rex Grossman hasn't played badly since being named the starting QB two weeks ago. But the 'Skins, despite an upset win in Jacksonville last week, remain a below-average team and a Quality Stats disaster (ranks of No. 22 or worse in six of our seven keynote indicators).

 

In the all-important passing game matchups, the Giants dominate Washington across-the-board (No. 12 in Passer Rating Differential vs. No. 25 for Washington). The Giants also clobbered the Redskins in the first meeting between the teams back on Dec. 5th.

 

They'll still need a lot of help to get into the post-season, but we like the Giants to do their part to keep their playoff hopes alive, for a few hours anyway.

 

 

So it's come down to this: if Seattle wins this game, they will win the NFC West and become the first 7-9 team in NFL history to make the playoffs.

 

Fear not folks, it's not going to happen.

 

For all the reasons why, see our Game of the Week analysis at SI.com.