The last time these two teams met back in Week 3, Buffalo gave the Patriots all they could handle before falling, 38-30, in a wild shootout.

 

Since then, New England has gone 10-1 with seven of those 10 wins against Quality Opponents (7-1 vs. Quality Teams overall) and has a chance to clinch both the AFC East crown and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with a win on Sunday. The Patriots also own this divisional match-up (we hesitate to call it a "rivalry), having won 14 straight dating back to 2003.

 

The Patriots bring the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL into this one, and pretty much sweep the Quality Stats battle, including a big edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 3 vs. No. 22 for Buffalo).

 

New England's vastly improved but still-mediocre pass defense (No. 19 in Defensive Passer Rating) and awful third down defense (49.2%, worst in the NFL) should allow Ryan Fitzpatrick (85.9 rating) and the Bills offense to keep this one close – for awhile.

 

 

This huge matchup between inter-conference playoff contenders is our Game of the Week on SI.com. Our analysis will be available at SI.com on Friday. Check in then for our take.

 

 

The Ravens have rebounded nicely from their gut-wrenching loss to the Steelers three weeks ago, winning two straight, including a huge victory in a showdown with the defending-champion Saints last week.

 

The Browns have received a terrific performance this year from rookie QB Colt McCoy (65.8%, 8.0 YPA, 5 TD, 3 INT, 93.0 rating). But even then, they naturally disappointed fans with a lame effort at Cincinnati last week, a 19-17 loss in which the Bengals rushed for 188 yards and controlled the clock for 38:03.

 

Baltimore dominates the Quality Stats matchup with the Browns, save for Cleveland's slight edge in Bendability (Cleveland is No. 3, Baltimore is No. 7). In the all-important passing battles, as measured by Passer Rating Differential, the Ravens have a big edge (No. 5 vs. No. 14 for Cleveland) but that figure would be much closer if McCoy had played the entire year.

 

Baltimore, meanwhile, is the only team in this game with motivation: they entered Week 16 tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North at 10-4. And Pittsburgh beat Carolina Thursday night (27-3), so the Ravens need to win to keep alive hopes of a division crown.

 

The last time Baltimore and Cleveland met, the Ravens won 24-17. That sounds about right this week, too.

 

These teams are so even in our Quality Stats matchup you'd never guess that one of them (Washington) is 5-9, imploding internally, and out of the playoff race; and the other (Jacksonville) is 8-6 and still in the hunt for a post-season slot.

 

The Jaguars had a shot last week to clinch the AFC South, slay the Indianapolis dragon and capture the division crown for the first time ever. They failed, of course, and essentially relinquished control of the division.

 

The Redskins began life in the post-Donovan McNabb era by getting a shockingly strong performance out of Rex Grossman in a loss against the Cowboys last week (322 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 93.4 rating).

 

Jacksonville's pass defense is even worse than the Cowboys' (No. 31 in Defensive Passer Rating), so Grossman could have another good day.

 

The big difference we see here is that Jacksonville's 13th-ranked Offensive Hogs (4.64 YPA on the ground, 6th) and human bowling ball Maurice Jones-Drew (1,324 yards, 4.4 YPA) should have a big day against Washington's weak (26th-ranked) Defensive Hogs, who field one of the worst run defenses in football (4.84 YPA, 31st). We like the Jaguars to control the ball with the running game and grind out a much-needed win.

 

 

We had pretty much written off the Titans for 2010, but then they surprised us and ended our perfect season picking Houston games by swamping the Texans last week, snapping their own six-game losing streak in the process.

 

Tennessee remains an oddly efficient team despite its 6-8 record, as they rank No. 2 in Scoreability and No. 5 in Bendability. We've never seen anything like that since we began tracking these efficiency indicators in 2004: teams that rank so highly in both have always been very good teams.

 

Kansas City seems too strong in too many ways, however. Running back Jamaal Charles is having a historic season (203 attempts, 1,303 yards, 6.42 YPA). He's on pace to produce the most explosive season in history (based upon YPA) for a running back with more than 200 attempts. And in all likelihood he will join Jim Brown in 1963 (6.40 YPA)  and Barry Sanders in 1997 (6.13 YPA) as the only three members of the 200-6.0 club.

 

The Chiefs, thanks largely to great production in the ground game and few mistakes in the passing game (6.79%), rank No. 6 on our Offensive Hog Index.

 

In the passing game, Matt Cassel (96.2 rating) gives KC a huge advantage at quarterback over the aged Kerry Collins (81.5 rating). And Kansas City's pass defense (No. 9 in Defensive Passer Rating vs. No. 17 for Tennessee) is far superior as well. Collins won't find the big gaps in the KC defense that he found last week with Houston's abysmal pass defense.

 

Kansas City has a big edge in critical passing wars, as measured by Passer Rating Differential (No. 6 vs. No. 17 for Tennessee).

 

 

Detroit is our "Road Dog of the Week" at ColdHardFootballFacts.com TV.

 

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are an enigma. After a huge win on the road against the Jets two weeks ago, Miami came home last week, lost to a lousy Buffalo team, fell to 7-7 (1-6 at home) and dropped out of playoff contention. 

 

The Lions are actually the "hotter" of the two teams, having won two games in a row against playoff contenders (Green Bay and Tampa Bay). Detroit has steadily improved all season and has even managed to crack the top 10 in our Offensive Hog Index (No. 10), thus creating an interesting matchup with Miami's No. 3 Defensive Hogs on Sunday.

 

The biggest weakness for the Dolphins is a poor and inefficient offense: they're No. 31 in scoring (17.1 PPG) and No. 31 in Scoreability (18.81 YPPS). The Lions, meanwhile, are starting to lift themselves out of the defensive basement they've inhabited for so many years: this season they're No. 19 in scoring defense (23.5 PPG) and No. 16 in Bendability (14.78 YPPA).

 

The Cold, Hard Football Facts give Detroit's defense an advantage over an opponent's offense for what seems like the first time since Joe Schmidt, Alex Karras and Night Train Lane roamed the night.

 

The Lions still can't stop the pass (No. 28 in Defensive Passer Rating at 92.99). But even then it's a pretty big improvement over what they offered in recent years. But Miami is not particularly well equipped to take advantage. Chad Henne has thrown 14 TD and 16 INT with a humble 77.6 passer rating.

 

With a loss, the Dolphins finish with a franchise-record-worst 1-7 record at home.

 

What more can be said about the pitiful NFC West that hasn't already been said? With all four teams losing last week, it's becoming more and more likely that a 7-9 team will win the division and that a losing team will qualify for the post-season for the first time in league history.

 

To that end, this "showdown" in St. Louis will play a big role in determining which member of the NFL's worst division will get a slot in the 2010 NFC playoffs.

 

The Rams have the advantages in the passing wars: No. 11 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 17 in Passer Rating Differential. The 49ers are No. 27 in both categories.

 

However, St. Louis QB Sam Bradford (75.9 rating) has hit the rookie wall in recent weeks: 0 TD and 5 INT while leading the Rams to an average of just 15.0 PPG in his last three outings.  

 

Keep in mind that the 49ers are a horrible road team (1-6) and the Rams are pretty good at home (4-3). St. Louis lost the first meeting in San Francisco, 20-17, but gain revenge in the rematch along the banks of the Mississippi.

 

 

The good news for the Bengals is that they ended their 10-game losing streak with a win over the Browns last week.

 

The bad news is that they have to face one of the biggest statistical juggernauts in the NFL on Sunday, the Chargers, and they have to do it without Terrell Owens, who was placed on season-ending injured reserve this week.

 

T.O. is a classic "shiny hood ornament" receiver. But there's no denying that he was Cincinnati's best offensive player this year (72 catches, 983 yards, 13.7 YPC). But in classic shiny hood ornament fashion, that production from a wide receiver meant little on the scoreboard. The Bengals were a 10-6 playoff team last year; they're a 3-11 nobody this year.

 

Meanwhile, San Diego ranks No. 1 in total defense, No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index and No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating.

 

San Diego's offense should also find plenty of holes in Cincy's poor defense, which ranks No. 26 in scoring (25.9 PPG).

 

The Chargers also rank No. 1 in Passing Yards Per Attempt (Philip Rivers has a 105.7 rating) and Passer Rating Differential, while holding down a solid No. 8 spot in Scoreability.

 

This game is a mismatch any way you analyze it. The only wild card is whether the Chargers will play the habitually stupid and underachieving ball that has defined their 201 season. But San Diego needs this one badly if they're going to keep their hopes for a playoff berth alive. So maybe they pull it all together, in classic paper tiger fashion, against a lousy team.

 

Well, we knew eventually that Houston's horrible defense would come back to bite us in our quest for a perfect season picking Texans' games, and last week it did.

The Texans allowed Kerry Collins, Chris Johnson and the Titans to roll up nearly 400 total yards and 31 points in a 31-17 blowout that we didn't see coming. Last week, we also pleaded with the Broncos to give Tim Tebow a chance in the final weeks of a season going nowhere, and they did.

 

Tebow responded with a strong effort against Oakland (138 passing yards, 100.5 rating; 78 rush yards, 1 TD). Of course, Denver's terrible defense surrendered 502 yards of offense and the Raiders won, 39-23.

 

In this matchup, Houston brings the No. 3 Offensive Hogs into Denver against the No. 30-ranked Defensive Hogs, and one of the more efficient passing offenses in the NFL (No. 10 in Passing Yards Per Attempt) against one of the worst pass defenses (Denver is No. 29 in Defensive Passer Rating).

 

So there are two huge mismatches in Houston's favor there. But, of course, Houston brings the worst pass defense in the NFL (No. 32 in Defensive Passer Rating) into this contest against a Denver passing offense that's efficient no matter who plays QB. Tebow averaged 7.16 Passing Yards Per Attempt last week and the team overall stands at No. 11 in Passing Yards Per Attempt (6.43).

 

Houston pass defense is so bad that Denver actually enjoys an advantage in the all-important Passer Rating Differential category (No. 20 to No. 25 for Houston).

 

In the end, all we are saying is give Tebow a chance in what should be a shootout in the Rockies.

 

The Colts have regained their mojo with two big division wins over the last two weeks, and they've also regained the top spot in the AFC South with two games to go.

 

Indy controls its own playoff destiny right now and this key road matchup against the Raiders represents the team's stiffest test over the last two weeks. Oakland, at 7-7, actually still has an outside shot to win the AFC West, which no one thought possible back in September.

 

This game features two mismatches, one on each side. The Raiders are an outstanding running team, as they average 4.94 YPA. Only Michael Vick and the historically productive Eagles are better on the ground. Oakland is led by Darren McFadden, who's finally emerging as a star (1,112 yards,  5.2 YPA).

 

The Colts, as usual, can't stop the run at all (No. 31 Defensive Hogs, allowing 4.74 YPC).

 

But Indy enjoys a big advantage when they pass the ball, as Peyton Manning so often does. He's rebounded with 4 TD and 0 INT in two straight wins, after his big three-game slump. The Colts are still a solid No. 7 in Passing Yards Per Attempt.

 

Oakland, meanwhile, can't stop the pass: No. 26 in Defensive Passer Rating.

 

The most intriguing matchup of the day pits Oakland's No. 6 Defensive Hogs, which force a Negative Pass Play on 10.81 percent of dropbacks (5th), against Indy's No. 9 Offensive Hogs, which allow a Negative Pass Play just 4.81 percent of the time – best in the NFL.

 

Expect plenty of yards on both sides of the ball, with Manning's arm proving the difference.

 

 

The Giants are coming off the most nut-crushing loss any NFL team has suffered this year. You know the story: they blew a 21-point lead to the Eagles, like a hooker in the Port Authority Bus Terminal in need of  a ride home.

 

Philly scored 28 unanswered points in the final seven-and-a-half minutes of the game to take control of the NFC East.

 

The Packers, meanwhile, have lost two in a row, but scored a dreaded "moral" victory according to some by hanging very tough with the Patriots on the road last week despite playing without the concussed Aaron Rodgers. Basically, if Green Bay loses this one, their playoff hopes are toast.

 

These two teams are Quality Stats juggernauts:

The Packers have the edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 2 vs. No. 8 for the Giants) and it appears that Aaron Rodgers is going to play this week, after missing last Sunday's contest at New England. But this game could very well come down to the battle in the trenches, where the Giants have a big advantage. On offense, New York averages 4.75 YPA on the ground (4th), while the vulnerable Green Bay run defense allows 4.62 YPA (26th).

 

On defense, New York's Defensive Hogs force a Negative Pass Play 11.58 percent of the time (No. 2), while Green Bay is a mediocre 19th at preventing Negative Pass Plays (9.02%) and surrendered five sacks last week to a usually toothless New England pass rush.

 

It's hard to pick the Giants after such a brutal defeat last week, especially on the road, but their superiority in the trenches makes us think that they could pull off a tough win over an inconsistent and ultimately disappointing Packers team. Green Bay looks like a team that, for the second year in, will be a statistical juggernaut that fails to live up to its potential.

 

 

Seattle has lost four of its last five and Tampa Bay has lost three of its last five, including an embarrassing home loss to the Lions last week.

 

Yet both teams are in the playoff hunt. Tampa is 8-6, but way down in third place in the tough NFC South behind two legit Super Bowl contenders (Atlanta, New Orleans). The 6-8 Seahawks actually have a better shot at the playoffs than the Bucs, thanks to the lousy state of the NFC Worst. Tampa Bay, even with a win here, needs a lot of help to get into the post-season.

 

But Bucs are clearly the better team from a Quality Stats standpoint, as they top Seattle – by a wide margin – in five of seven key categories, including all three key passing stats (No. 10 in Passer Rating Differential vs. No. 29 for Seattle). But Tampa Bay never wins by a blowout, and though we expect the Bucs to win this one, the Seahawks should keep it relatively close.

 

 

Can anyone or anything stop the Eagles after their miraculous win at the Meadowlands last week?

 

The Vikings certainly can't.

 

Minnesota's spineless puss of a coach Leslie Frazier refuses to rule out BrettFavre even though Old Yeller has a concussion, a terrible passer rating (69.9), a history of ruining seasons and is fresh off his self-centered destruction of a Vikings organization that showed so much promise in 2008 – only to throw it all away in a gruesome spasm of Old Yeller Fever.

 

With that said, our guess and our Christmas wish for mankind is that BrettFavre has taken his last snap – and only six years after his Farewell Tour around the NFL.

 

This game, both on paper and in reality, is no contest. Philly's "Big Play" attack (No. 1 in Big Plays generated, No. 2 scoring offense; No. 4 in Scoreability and No. 5 in Passing Yards Per Attempt) should find the pickings easy against a Minnesota defense that has disappointed all season long (No. 26 in Bendability; No. 19 Defensive Hogs; No. 21 in Defensive Passer Rating).

 

If that's not enough evidence of an easy Philly win, the Eagles also dominate the Passer Rating Differential matchup (No. 4 vs. No. 31 for Minnesota).

 

The Saints loss to Baltimore last week took some of the shine off this game: even if New Orleans wins in Atlanta Monday night, the Falcons need only to defeat the terrible Panthers at home in Week 17 to clinch the NFC South.

 

Still, this is a big test for the Falcons, who won the first meeting in overtime down in New Orleans in Week 3.

 

Atlanta is the more efficient team, as they rank No. 6 in Bendability and No. 3 in Scoreability. The Saints are in the middle of the pack in both categories.

 

In the all-important passing game matchup, this games leans in New Orleans' favor. Drew Brees (93.5 rating) and the Saints rank No. 8 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, while Matt Ryan (90.5 rating) and the Falcons rank just No. 23 in PYPA.

 

Neither team has a great pass defense, but the Saints top the Falcons in Defensive Passer Rating as well (No. 12 vs. No. 18 for Atlanta).

 

As you might have guessed from those numbers, the Saints have the edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 7 vs. No. 12 for Atlanta).

 

Normally, we'd go with the team that has the advantage in the passing game. But the Falcons, as we said last week on ColdHardFootballFacts TV, have won us over at this point in the season.

 

They're 5-2 against Quality Opponents, second only to the Patriots (7-1) league wide, while the Saints are 2-2. In other words, the Falcons are a very battle-tested team; and, along with New England and Kansas City,  Atlanta is one of three teams in the NFL with a perfect home record in 2010.

 

Moreover, the Saints have allowed an alarming 87 points in their last three road games (victories at Dallas and Cincinnati, plus the loss at Baltimore), which doesn't bode well heading into such a tough road environment on a Monday night.

 

Expect another heart-stopping finish in this one and expect the resourceful, efficient, battle-tested Falcons to pull it out in the end.