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Week 15 real and spectacular picks
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 16, 2010

The great thing about the NFL is that each week reminds us of the heavenly bosoms of our fair muse Ms. Teri Hatcher: each one looks even more real and spectacular than the one that came before it.
 
In the case of Week 15 of the 2010 season, it's a real and spectacular slate by any measure: a 38-DD of NFL weekends.
 
The Eagles battle the Giants in a fight for Glamour Division supremacy. The sputtering Jets fight for their playoff lives in Pittsburgh against the mighty Defense of Troy. The Patriots host the Packers and the Saints visit the Ravens in a pair of heavyweight interconference clashes among teams jostling for playoff position.
 
There are even two surprisingly important NFC West vs. AFC West battles that will help determine the champion in both divisions: San Francisco visits San Diego Thursday night and Kansas City visits St. Louis Sunday.
 
Oh, and don't forget the Biggest Game Nobody's Talking About: Jaguars-Colts in a huge AFC South showdown that could upset Indy's decade-long Reign of Awesomeness.
 
All along the way, Ms. Hatcher and the Cold, Hard Football Facts have cupped you in our bosom of pigskin pontificating excellence. We fought to a humble 8-8 record against the spread last week, and needed to do it in dramatic fashion.
 
It wasn't a great performance by the high standards of your trusty, neighborhood CHFF. But the steadiest streak of excellence on the inter-webs remains intact. We're still well above .500 ATS for the second year in a row picking every game, every week. 
 
And, incredibly, we have suffered a meager seven losing weeks ATS in the 31 weeks since the start of 2010. In a trade that routinely humbles the haughtiest, the Cold, Hard Football Facts rarely feel the sting of humility.
 
Here's our week-by-week performance in 2010:
 
Week 1: 8-7 straight; 7-6 ATS
Week 2: 10-6 straight, 7-8 ATS
Week 3: 11-5 straight, 12-4 ATS
Week 4: 8-6 straight, 5-9 ATS
Week 5: 9-5 straight, 7-7 ATS
Week 6: 8-6 straight; 4-10 ATS
Week 7: 8-6 straight, 10-4 ATS
Week 8: 7-6 straight, 6-7 ATS
Week 9: 10-3 straight; 8-5 ATS
Week 10: 6-8 straight; 11-3 ATS
Week 11: 13-3 straight, 10-6 ATS
Week 12: 11-5 straight; 8-8 ATS
Week 13: 13-3 straight; 10-6 ATS
Week 14: 11-5 straight, 8-8 ATS
Year to date: 133-74 straight (.643), 113-91 ATS (.554)
 
Hell, Ms. Hatcher deserves a little serenade after inspiring us to such lofty heights of excellence. So, here you go Ms. Hatcher, this one's for you, from CHFF Trolls everywhere!
 
 
 
San Francisco at San Diego (-9.5)
San Diego is about as schizophrenic as McMurphy in "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest." After a 2-5 start, the Chargers won four straight heading into December, a month during which it had never lost under Norv Turner – until the Raiders clobbered them in Week 13 to seemingly kill their playoff hopes.
 
Last week, however, aided by Matt Cassel's appendix, which decided to flare up at the worst possible time for Kansas City, San Diego ripped the first place Chiefs 31-0 to climb back over .500 and reinsert themselves into the AFC West race.
 
Not surprisingly, the Chargers are better than the 49ers by any statistical measure, except for defensive efficiency, where San Francisco's No. 17 ranking in our Bendability Index is far superior to San Diego's No. 28 ranking. The Chargers give up a lot of cheap points, on other words, and it's one big reason why they're a humble 7-6 despite dominance in so many other areas.
 
Everywhere else, however, this is not a close matchup, especially in the passing game, where Philip Rivers (103.1 rating) and the Chargers have a huge edge in Passing Yards Per Attempt (No. 1 vs. No. 14) and Passer Rating Differential (No. 1 vs. No. 22). San Diego also wins the Defensive Passer Rating battle handily (No. 2 vs. No. 23).
 
The 49ers, at 5-8, are still in the hunt in the terrible NFC West and are coming off a huge blowout win over Seattle last week. But the Chargers simply have too much for any member of the NFC Worst.
 
San Diego 31, San Francisco 16
 
New Orleans at Baltimore (-2.5)
We're not sure a matchup gets much closer than this titanic showdown between two likely playoff-bound teams in Baltimore.
 
The one major difference between the teams would appear to be in the trenches when the Saints' superior Offensive Hogs (No. 3) line up against Baltimore's middle-of-the-pack Defensive Hogs (No. 16).
 
Yes, that's right, wwe said it: despite the great reputation of Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs & Co., Baltimore's D-Hogs are merely mediocre.
 
So expect Drew Brees to have all day in the pocket when the Saints drop back to pass: Baltimore is a lowly 28th at forcing Negative Pass Plays (7.41%). New Orleans is 6th at preventing them (6.54%), despite Brees' 18 picks.
 
New Orleans also brings the NFL's sixth-ranked scoring offense (25.4 PPG) into the game, while Baltimore is merely mediocre (14th) on offense (22.6 PPG).
 
The Saints are playing so well right now – six straight wins – it's hard to pick against them. Their superior offense facing a Baltimore defense that just surrendered 28 points at Houston gives them a leg up in what is otherwise an even battle.
 
New Orleans 24, Baltimore 21
 
Arizona at Carolina (-3.5)
We're not sure how many diehard Carolina fans will show up for this game, but those who do deserve a medal or a free psychiatric evaluation from Nurse Ratched.
 
A side note to our female readers: the Cold, Hard Football Facts crew offers free breast exams at all NFL games.
 
In the mean time, these teams are so bad passing the football that even BrettFavre's typical turnover-prone Sunday would represent an improvement in that area for each club.
 
Arizona and Carolina rank Nos. 31 and 32, respectively, in both Passing Yards Per Attempt and Passer Rating Differential. Moreover, both teams are starting rookie QBs with passer ratings in the 55-56 range.
 
The Cardinals are going with John Skelton, who is fresh off a 15 for 37 (40.5%), 146-yard performance against Denver last week, while the Panthers are sticking with the struggling Jimmy Clausen (1 TD, 7 INTs, 55 passer rating in 2010). 
 
At least the Cardinals won last week, and did so impressively, 43-13 over Denver. The Cardinals scored a defensive TD and a TD on a fake field goal last week, giving them an amazing 10 non-offensive TDs for the season.
 
So Arizona continues to rank high (No. 7) on our Scoreability Index, a statistical anomaly for a team that struggles so mightily everywhere else.
 
It's hard to pick Arizona on the road against anyone, which is probably why the Red Birds are underdogs in this game against a 1-12 team. But the Cardinals are clearly the more efficient team on both sides of the ball. The Panthers, meanwhile, counter with the NFL's worst offense (12.6 PPG).
 
And, using our advanced scientific metrics, we are able to determine that Carolina is just very, very bad.
 
Arizona 27, Carolina 13
 
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-1.5)
We picked the Browns to win in Buffalo last week. But we also warned against the Jake Delhomme Factor.
 
It turns out we were wrong on the pick because we were right about Delhomme, who submitted an 86-yard, 0 TD, 1 INT, 49.2 rating disaster against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Browns offense disappeared in a 13-6 loss to the Bills.
 
Note to selves: trust your Jake Delhomme instinct.
 
This week, Delhomme appears to be a non-factor because rookie Colt McCoy (85.3 rating), who spearheaded Cleveland's midseason revival before getting hurt, reportedly is healthy enough to start again.
 
Cincinnati, meanwhile, is long on big names but short on efficiency. T.O., Ochocinco, Palmer, Benson, et al. are 2-11 because they're No. 21 in Scoreability, No. 29 in Bendability and No. 27 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, a prime measure of passing efficiency.
 
The Bengals are also bad in the trenches: 26th on the Offensive Hog Index and 28th on the Defensive Hog Index.
 
Other than those few itsy bitsy problems, the T.O.-Ochocinco tandem has been a smash hit!
 
Cleveland's No. 14 Defensive Hogs should have a big advantage against Cincinnati's No. 26 Offensive Hogs. And RB Peyton Hillis (4.5 YPA) gives the Browns a big advantage against a Cincinnati run defense that allows 4.59 YPA (26th).
 
The Browns won the first meeting between these two teams, 23-20, back in Week 4 with Seneca Wallace behind center. With a healthy McCoy back in action, look for the Browns to sweep the Battle of Ohio in 2010.
 
Cleveland 24, Cincinnati 20
 
Washington at Dallas (-6.5)
Two teams going in opposite directions hook up down in Dallas for the first time since Week 1. Back then, the Cowboys had a game-winning touchdown called back by a holding penalty, handing Mike Shanahan a victory in his Redskins coaching debut.
 
Shanahan probably had no clue back in Week 1 that the victory over Dallas would be one of the few highlights of his first season in D.C. The Redskins are 5-8, have lost three in a row, and found an especially excruciating way to lose last week when they failed to execute a PAT kick that would have tied their game against Tampa Bay in the final seconds.
 
The Cowboys lost to the Eagles last week to drop to 3-2 under Jason Garrett. But both losses since Garrett took over were by 3 points and came against teams that are a combined 19-7 this season (New Orleans and Philadelphia). So it would appear that Garrett has Dallas moving in the right direction.
 
The Cowboys still have one of the most inefficient defenses in football (No. 31 in Bendability) and also possess one of the NFL's worst pass defenses (No. 30 in Defensive Passer Rating). Their Defensive Hogs (No. 23) are also shabby.
 
But they've improved everywhere else under Garrett. Dallas has moved up to No. 12 on the Offensive Hog Index, No. 9 in Scoreability, and continues to hold down the No. 5 spot in Passing Yards Per Attempt behind backup QB Jon Kitna (88.7 rating).
 
The Redskins, on the other hand, have an efficient defense (No. 9 in Bendability), but not much else. They rank 25th or worse in five of our other six keynote Quality Stats.
 
Most importantly, the Cowboys have big advantages n Passing Yards Per Attempt and Passer Rating Differential. A home team on the rise that dominates the passing match-ups is usually a winner.
 
Dallas 30, Washington 20
 
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-5.5)
The Trolls in our Fabulous Football Forum identified Jags-Colts as the "biggest game that nobody is talking about."
 
The AFC South race basically boils down to Sunday afternoon. If Jacksonville wins this game, they wrap-up the division regardless of what happens over the final two weeks because they will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy, having won the first meeting between the teams in Jacksonville on a miracle 59-yard field goal by Josh Scobee as time expired.
 
If the Colts win, the teams are tied atop the division at 8-6 (3-2 divisional record for each) and it becomes a two-game season.
 
You could argue that it's the biggest game in recent Jacksonville history: a chance to prove that they're the equal of the Colts. It's a test they've failed for most of the past decade.
 
Last week against Tennessee, the Colts finally listened to our advice and unveiled a balanced offensive attack that neatly mixed the pass and run. The result was Indy's first win in four weeks and an end to Peyton Manning's three-week interception orgy (11 INTs in losses to New England, San Diego and Dallas). With a balanced attack behind him, Manning was his old stone-cold efficient self against the Titans (25 for 35, 319 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 118.6 rating).
 
Lesson to Planet Pigskin: Not even Peyton Manning should doubt the almighty wisdom of the Cold, Hard Football Facts!
 
The Jaguars have won five of six after outscoring the Raiders last week, 38-31. Jacksonville rushed for a whopping 234 yards (6.9 YPA) last week and averages a tremendous 4.72 YPC for the season. That spells bad news for  Indy's 30th-ranked Defensive Hogs, who allow 4.84 YPA on the ground (31st).
 
Everywhere else, however, the Colts seem to have the advantage. They throw the ball better (No. 8 in Passing Yards Per Attempt vs. No. 21), they're more efficient offensively (No. 5 in Scoreability vs. No. 14) and their ninth-ranked Offensive Hogs face a Jacksonville team that fields some of the league's worst Defensive Hogs (25th).
 
The biggest problem? Manning is still one of the great passers of all time, despite his recent slump, and the Jaguars  remain hugely vulnerable in this area: No. 31 in Defensive Passer Rating.
 
Jacksonville's strong ground attack should keep the Jaguars in the game. But in the end, the Colts are better in the passing game, where it matters most, they're at home and they need to win.
 
Indianapolis 31, Jacksonville 27
 
Buffalo at Miami (-5.5)
Just when we thought they were out, the Dolphins pulled themselves back into the AFC playoff race with a 10-6 upset win at the Jets last week.
 
Miami continues to be one of the oddest teams in the NFL this season: 6-1 on the road and 1-5 at home. So even though the Dolphins are better than the Bills, we don't know what to expect out of the 'Fins in Miami.
 
Buffalo is 3-10, but has lost only once by more than a field goal since October 10.
 
Buffalo's offense, which had averaged more than 24 PPG in the first eight games under Ryan Fitzpatrick (85 passer rating), has fallen back to earth over the last three games (14.3 PPG).
 
Miami's strength is on defense, where they rank No. 11 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 4 on the Defensive Hog Index. In Passer Rating Differential, the Dolphins have the edge (No. 17 vs. No. 23 for Buffalo).
 
Even though the Dolphins are ineffective on offense, Buffalo's defense isn't good enough to capitalize on that opportunity. And offensively, despite a good running game (4.43 YPA, 8th), the Bills aren't exactly the 1998 Vikings either.
 
Miami 20, Buffalo 17
 
Philadelphia at NY Giants (-3.5)
This is a colossal showdown for the NFC East lead in New Meadowlands Stadium. Four weeks ago the Eagles seized the division lead with a 10-point win over the Giants at home. But the Giants have won three straight since then to pull back into a first-place tie.
 
Eagles-Giants is so big it's also our Game of the Week on SI.com. Our analysis will be the lead NFL story on SI.com on Friday. So check in then for our take.
 
Bottom line: it's a clash of styles between the explosive, Big Play-leading Eagles and the plodding, trench-war expert Giants.
 
NY Giants 27, Philadelphia 24
 
Kansas City at St. Louis (-1.5)
These two surprise teams from Missouri got a look at life at the Big Boy's table last week, and neither liked it very much.
 
The Chiefs, sans their MVP-candidate quarterback Matt Cassel (appendicitis), were smoked out 31-0 in San Diego and fell back into a tight race for the AFC West crown. The Rams visited the Super Bowl champion Saints and were taught a lesson in humility with a  31-13 loss.
 
Of course, in the NFC West, St. Louis's 6-7 record is still good for a share of first place with three weeks to go. The Chiefs still hold a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West. So the Battle of Missouri shapes up as a critical game for both teams with playoff implications in both conferences.
 
The outcome hinges on Cassel's participation for Kansas City. He practiced this week, but is still not a sure bet to play. He's gives the Chiefs a huge advantage in the passing game: KC is 15th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. Sam Bradford and the Rams are 30th. The Chiefs also win the Passer Rating Differential matchup (No. 8 vs. No. 14),
 
The Chiefs have a huge advantage on the ground, too. Behind a historic season from Jamaal Charles (192 carries, 6.13 YPA), Kansas City averages 4.83 YPA (4th) on the ground. The Rams are vulnerable against the run (4.49 YPA, 23rd).
 
The Rams have been tough at home this year but are just 1-3 overall against Quality Opponents. The Chiefs are the better team, but the outcome depends on Cassel's health. If he plays, Kansas City wins. If he doesn't play, well, how did that Brodie Croyle thing workout for the Chiefs last week?
 
Kansas City 24, St. Louis 20 (assuming Cassel plays)
 
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-6.5)
The Lions knocked Aaron Rodgers out of the game last week and then upset the Packers, 7-3, for their third win of the season. It was an incredible defensive effort by Detroit and a good win for a team which has started more quarterbacks this season (three) than the Packers have started over the last 19 seasons (two).
 
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, continues to be the most unimpressive 8-5 team in football. Their 1-point win last week in Washington was mainly the result of an extremely poor effort in the kicking game by the Redskins, including a botched PAT attempt in the final seconds. The Bucs are 8-0 against the NFL's dregs and 0-5 against Quality Opponents.
 
Even the Lions boast one Quality Win (against seven losses).
 
Detroit is an improved team this season, for sure, but they still rank No. 21 or worse in four of our seven keynote Quality Stats.
 
The Lions do field the NFL's No. 12 Defensive Hogs, backed by rookie stud Ndamukong Suh, which represents a huge improvement over recent years. But Tampa Bay counters with the NFL's No. 3 Offensive Hogs, including a unit that's No. 5 in Negative Pass Plays allowed. The ability of QB Josh Freeman to avoid mistakes in the passing game is one reason why the Bucs are a surprising playoff contender.
 
The Lions are down to their third-string QB, Drew Stanton (72.6 rating), while Tampa is No. 6 in Defensive Passer Rating. So don't expect much from Detroit's passing game this week.
 
In the passing game breakdown, this one is all Tampa Bay. The Bucs have a big advantage in Passer Rating Differential (No. 10 vs. No. 24) and Passing Yards Per Attempt (No. 13 vs. No. 29).
 
Freeman (87.9 rating), meanwhile, should find the skies over Raymond James Stadium pretty friendly against what's still a very poor Detroit pass defense (No. 28 in Defensive Passer Rating).
 
Tampa Bay 23, Detroit 17
 
Houston at Tennessee (-1.5)
It's getting to be white-knuckle time for the Cold, Hard Football Facts. Just three weeks to go and three more successful picks for us to complete the first perfect 16-0 season in the history of our real and spectacular picks.
 
And it might be bare-knuckle time on the field Sunday. The last time these two teams met, the Texans won, 20-0, in a game marred by an ugly slughfest between Houston WR Andre Johnson and Tennessee DB Cortland Finnegan.
 
With another incredibly accurate prediction of Houston's six-point loss to Baltimore on Monday night, we're now 13-0 overall and 10-2 against the spread picking Texans games this season. We called for a 27-21 Baltimore victory. We got a 34-28 Baltimore victory.
 
But the picks get tougher each week.
 
The Titans are statistically stout (top 10 in all of Quality Stats) and are particularly efficienct: No. 2 in Scoreability and No. 6 in Bendability. Those are numbers that normally equate to success: teams that win the efficiency battle (according to Scoreability-Bendability) win 85 percent of the time.
 
But Tennessee is 5-8, has lost six in a row and is in total turmoil. They're also stuck with ancient Kerry Collins (78.6 rating) at QB for the rest of the year.
 
You know the story by now where the Texans are concerned. Their defense in general is bad: No. 23 on the Defensive Hog Index, No. 26 in Bendability and No. 30 in scoring (27.3 PPG).
 
And the pass defense, as you know, is atrocious: No. 32 in Defensive Passer Rating (103.13), while surrendering a league-high 29 TD passes. In other words, Houston makes every quarterback look like Tom Brady this season.

Normally, we'd go with the team with the big advantage in Passer Rating Differential (Tennessee No. 15, Houston 25), especially if that team is at home. But in this case, Tennessee checked out on 2010 just about the time Vince Young threw his pads into the stands in one of the great hissy fits on modern NFL history.
 
Collins, his replacement, played very well last week against the Colts (3 TD, 0 INT, 113.6 rating), but hasn't won a game since October 24 (a big win over the Eagles, no less).
 
So we'll hold our breath and take the road team here, and hope that our perfect record is still intact next week.
 
Andre Johnson 30, Cortland Finnegan 26
 
Atlanta (-6.5) at Seattle
This is a classic matchup of contender vs. pretender.
 
The Falcons are tied with New England for the NFL's best record (11-2), they're 5-2 vs. Quality Opponents and rank No. 5 or better in three of our keynote Quality Stats (Bendability, Scoreability, Offensive Hogs).
The Seahawks, at 6-7, are tied for first place with the Rams in the putrid NFC West, are coming off an embarrassing 19-point loss against a bad San Francisco team last week, and are just 2-3 against Quality Opponents.
 
Pro football is all about the quarterback, and Atlanta rules this battle: Matt Ryan (90.7 rating) easily trumps Matt Hasselbeck (75.2). Atlanta also wins the Passing Yards Per Attempt matchup (No. 16 vs. No. 20) and has a big edge in Passer Rating Differential (No. 12 vs. No. 28 for Seattle).
 
Qwest Field is alleged to be one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL. But the last two times a Quality Opponent rolled into town, the Seahawks got hammered (42-24 by the Chiefs and 41-7 by the Giants).
 
Atlanta, meanwhile, is red hot with a 2010-best seven straight wins and need another victory to hold off New Orleans in the NFC South.
 
Atlanta 31, Seattle 17
 
Denver at Oakland (-6.5)
There have been some notable bad decisions in the sports world over the past year.
 
For example, Tiger Woods last year sent hundreds of dirty text messages to all of his mistresses and, it seems, to every whore in Las Vegas. The Cold, Hard Football Facts last week picked the Broncos to beat the Cardinals.
 
It's clear that the Broncos, in the wake of the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, have joined the short list of teams in the 2010 season's express checkout line.
 
Even Kyle Orton is falling apart. He was having a statistically tremendous season through Week 12, but has submitted two stinkers in a row (46.3 rating vs. Kansas City; 27.1 rating and 3 INT vs. Arizona).
 
Oakland presents a very bad match up for the Ponies. The Raiders have been pounding the football in recent weeks: Darren McFadden averages 52. YPA and the team overall averages a tremendous 4.79 YPA (5th).
 
The Broncos counter with a defenseless group of Defensive Hogs: No. 31 on the DHI and No. 22 against the run (4.47 YPA). Denver's D-Hogs are especially bad at forcing mistakes in the passing game: dead last in Negative Pass Plays (5.66%).
 
There's also the fact that the last time these two teams met, back when the Broncos still had playoff hopes, and the Raiders were just hoping to avoid the AFC West basement, Oakland rolled up 328 rushing yards and scored 59 points, in Denver.
 
Oakland 34, Denver 17
 
NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Three weeks ago this showdown at Heinz Field looked destined to be a battle for homefield advantage in the playoffs, and maybe even an AFC title game preview.
 
The latter scenario could still play out. But after the turbulent ride on Gang Green Airlines in recent weeks, we know now that home field probably goes through Foxboro first and Pittsburgh second.
 
It's not hard to identify the main problem with the Jets: QB Mark Sanchez has thrown 0 TDs with 6 INTs against New York's last three Quality Opponents (Green Bay, New England, Miami), all losses. Sanchez has submitted passer ratings of 43.3, 27.8 and 45.3 in those three games the Jets have scored a total of 9 points.
 
The Steelers, meanwhile, have won four straight since their Close Encounter of the Worst Kind with New England's space-age offense back in Week 10.
 
Other than that blip, Pittsburgh continues to be a dominant force, especially on defense, as we noted this week in our look at The Defense of Troy. They're a battle-tested team that's 4-3 against Quality Opponents, they rank in the top 10 in five of our seven keynote stats, and they're No. 2 in Bendability, No. 2 on the Defensive Hog Index, No. 2 in scoring defense (15.2 PPG) and No. 1 in run defense (2.92 YPA). Pittsburgh remains on pace to be one of the five stingiest run defenses in the Super Bowl Era.
 
In the all-important passing game, this one is no contest. Ben Roethlisberger, surgically repaired nose and all, is playing well (94.8 rating) and Pittsburgh ranks No. 9 in Passing Yards Per Attempt.
 
The Jets in recent weeks have proved incapable of moving the ball against good defenses. The Steelers have a very, very good defense. Yet another promising season spirals further out of control for Gang Green Airlines and the Same Ol' Jets.
 
Pittsburgh 24, N.Y. Jets 3
 
Green Bay at New England (-10.5)
By the numbers, this game appears similar to last week's Patriots-Bears matchup in Chicago: great New England offense against a great NFC North defense.
 
But you know what happened last week: Tom Brady & Co. romped past Chicago in snowy, windy conditions, oblivious to the elements or the quality of the opponent. The Patriots held a 33-0 lead at the half before calling off the dogs.
 
The big question this week is the health of Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (concussion). Coach Mike McCarthy said he'll make a decision on Saturday.
 
The differences between Rodgers and back-up Matt Flynn could not be more stark: Rodgers right now is the all-time leader in career passer rating (97.6) and TD-INT ratio (2.6 to 1), the only passer in history better than Brady in that latter category. 
 
Flynn, meanwhile, has attempted just 46 passes in three NFL seasons and has never thrown a TD. He was useless last week against the lousy Lions defense, a shocking 7-3 Detroit victory over the statistically stout Pack.
 
The Patriots, meanwhile, have improved dramatically on pass defense in recent weeks. They were once as low as No. 29 in Defensive Passer Rating. They're up to No. 19 today, and second in the NFL with 20 INTs (Philly, 22).
 
Green Bay's bread and butter, though, is on defense and on pass defense in particular. The Pack is No. 1 in both scoring defense (14.5 PPG) and Defensive Passer Rating (68.09).
 
But stout defenses have proven no obstacle for New England: they've humiliated three of the league's best defenses in recent weeks (Pittsburgh, N.Y. Jets, Chicago).
 
The Patriots are also an NFL-best 7-1 vs. Quality Opponents. It's possible they could end the year with a record eight Quality Wins in a single season. Green Bay is just 2-3 against its five Quality Opponents.
 
If Rodgers plays in this game, Green Bay's passing offense can do pretty much whatever it wants against the New England pass defense. But even then, we like the Patriots to outscore the Packers. If Flynn gets the nod, look for New England to romp.
 
New England 34, Green Bay 27 (with Rodgers)
New England 38, Green Bay 20 (without Rodgers)
 
Chicago (-2.5) at Minnesota
Football Nation: Our long national nightmare is over. BrettFavre's consecutive games started streak finally ended last week at 297.
 
There's no word on when ESPN will raise the flags outside of its Bristol headquarters back to full mast. But we're guessing that the official mourning period over the loss of BrettFavre's streak will extend to 30 days, the time usually observed when a dignitary dies.
 
Old Yeller is not deceased, of course, he's just got a bum shoulder and a terrible passer rating (69.6). The Vikings, still suffering from the effects of Old Yeller Fever even after the end of his streak, have not put BrettFavre on injured reserve and say they have "no plans to do so."
 
That decision means that BrettFavre could play again in 2010, which is great news for Minnesota's opponents.
 
Tavaris Jackson (63.9 rating, 3 TD, 4 INT)  led the Vikings to a win over Buffalo two weeks ago but came crashing back to earth against the Giants last week (46.3 rating) in a 21-3 loss.
 
Jackson is also hurt (turf toe) and could possibly miss this game, which would leave the Minnesota offense in the hands of third-stringer Joe Webb, a rookie.
 
(Update: the Vikings announced at 12:40 p.m. Thursday that Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. Sayonara Tarvaris. Life is tough in the Not for Long League. Too bad the Vikings couldn't find a durable quarterback you can count on to start every week, year after year.)
 
Throw in the fact that this game had to be moved from the cozy, passer-friendly indoor confines of the Metrodome to the frigid outdoor air of the University of Minnesota's home stadium, and Minnesota's passing game Monday night could be as non-existent as a typical CHFF troll's sex life.
 
Truth be told, the Bears could use the break. Chicago's proud defense was humiliated in "Bear Weather" last week at home by the Patriots. So a Minnesota offense that's not scaring anyone right now could be just what Dr. Ditka ordered.
 
There should be more "Bear Weather" on Monday night. But this time Tom Brady won't be staring across the line of scrimmage at Brian Urlacher and Co.Whether the opposing QB is BrettFavre, Jackson or Webb, the Bears should romp.
 
Chicago 21, Minnesota 14

Week 15 of the 2010 season is a real and spectacular slate by any measure, even when measured by the lofty standards set by our fair muse Ms. Teri Hatcher. You might say it's a 38-DD of NFL weekends, with real and spectacular games up and down the schedule.

East
South
North
West