Tennessee (-3.5) at Jacksonville
When we looked at this game on the schedule back in August, we yawned. But maybe we should stop drinking at lunch.
In any case, whatever our first reaction, Titans-Jaguars is suddenly a fascinating contest in a division that boasts four teams with winning records through Week 5. We can only assume that this is an unprecedented feat (someone will surely email us a correction if we're wrong).
Meanwhile, division mates Houston and Indy are both solid favorites this week. So both the Jags and the, ahh, what's short for Titans, the Tits(?), will be desperate to keep pace in a foursome in which 3-3 might spell last place on Tuesday.
So both teams are 3-2. But not all 3-2 records are created equally.
The Jaguars do boast a signature win over Indy. But they were also smoked like a Churchill Robusto by the Chargers and Eagles in consecutive weeks. They're kind of a bumbling 3-2: No. 13 in scoring offense (21.4 PPG) and No. 30 in scoring defense (27.4 PPG).
The Titans have won tough road games impressively over Glamour Division foes Giants and Cowboys and have the statistical appearance of a more legit 3-2: No. 5 in scoring offense (26.4 PPG) and No. 10 in scoring defense (19.0 PPG).
Tennessee is also a solid +10.9 (11th) in the all-important Passer Rating Differential indicator; Jacksonville is a very poor -20.23 (26th). The Jaguars and their 25th-ranked Defensive Hogs are also poor against the run (4.43 YPA, 23rd) – not a good sign against Chris Johnson and the NFL's No. 7 ground game (4.58 YPA).
The Titans will overcome the noise and excitement caused by Jacksonville's three loyal fans and keep pace in the tough AFC South.
Tennessee 26, Jacksonville 20
