By Mark WaldCold, Hard Football Facts wise guy, eh?
How good are the wise guys when it comes to predicting NFL margin of victory?
Yeah, we know (or at least we think, depending on which shady underworld character you talk to) that the bookmakers' goal is to balance the books, not necessarily nail the final score.
Nonetheless, they put a number out there for almost every NFL game, and when the game is over the margin of victory either matches the pointspread or it doesn't.
Are they close? Are they way off? Does that effeminate guy across the street bug the ever-lovin' sh*t out of you?
Don't know for sure about the latter, but we're getting a pretty good feel for the former.
In a statistical analysis funded by your hard-earned stimulus dollars, we've wined and dined at the finest all-you-can-eat buffets America has to offer. In between gorging on fried chicken that tastes remarkably like meat loaf, and mixing sunflower seeds and raisins with our cottage cheese, we managed to come up with a few observations about the history of the NFL pointspread.
Our conclusion is twofold:
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If the bookmakers' goal is to balance the books, we have no opinion. Do we look like Enron to you?
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If the bookmakers' goal is to nail the margin of victory with their pointspread, they might need a few more years than the 70+ they've already had to hone their skills.
We analyzed more than 11,100 NFL games dating back to 1940. By our count the wise guys nailed the exact margin of victory 311 times. If you're the betting type, you know those games were pushes, naturally.
Our records show that since 1969 Vegas nails about seven games a year, on average. Some of it is by design. Spreads that end on half points can't end up in a push.
More on that later. We're working on providing more detail than your greedy little eyes can handle in one sitting. This is going to be impressive when all is said and done.
In the meantime, check out the results from yesterday's games. Four games within a half point of the final margin. That's pretty good. But four games off by double digits, too. But, hey, it could have been worse: they could have posted the
disastrous slate that the Cold, Hard Football Facts did in Week 6.
Vegas Line vs. Final Result (Week 6 2010)
| Game |
Result |
Dif |
| New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay |
New Orleans 31-6 |
20.5 |
| San Diego (-8.5) at St. Louis |
St. Louis 20-17 |
11.5 |
| Atlanta at Philadelphia (-3.5) |
Philadelphia 31-17 |
10.5 |
| Seattle at Chicago (-7.5) |
Seattle 23-20 |
10.5 |
| Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) |
Pittsburgh 28-10 |
3.5 |
| Detroit at N.Y. Giants (-10.5) |
NY Giants 28-20 |
2.5 |
| Oakland at San Francisco (-6.5) |
San Francisco 17-9 |
1.5 |
| Dallas at Minnesota (-1.5) |
Minnesota 24-21 |
1.5 |
| Indianapolis (-3.5) at Washington |
Indianapolis 27-24 |
0.5 |
| Baltimore at New England (-3.5) |
New England 23-20 |
0.5 |
| Kansas City at Houston (-4.5) |
Houston 35-31 |
0.5 |
| N.Y. Jets (-3.5) at Denver |
N.Y. Jets 24-20 |
0.5 |
| Miami at Green Bay (n/a) |
Miami 23-20 |
n/a |
