Cold, Hard Football Facts round mound of rebound sex
Trolls love big, round numbers. After all, most Trolls are big and round themselves.
Among the most exciting of football's big round numbers is 400,
as in the 400-yard passing game. It's a fairly rare occurrence: there have been 207 400-yard passing days in pro football since 1960 – an average of about four each year.
It's usually seen as a great accomplishment, too, especially in this day and age when imaginary fake football influences so much about what so many people think about the NFL.
But the truth is that a 400-yard passing day is, historically, a mixed blessing. And, this year, it's not even a blessing. It is, like anorexia, a curse that we fight each day to overcome.
Last week, for example, San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers passed for 431 yards against Oakland. It was the seventh 400-yard passing game of the year. But Rivers and the Chargers lost, 35-27.
He's not alone.The 400-yard passers are 1-6 this year.
First, a little history lesson
The 2010 season is already
shaping up as one for the history books. Before this year, there's never been more than four 400-yard passing days through Week 5. In fact, if the season ended today, 2010 would be on the short list of seasons with the most 400-yard passing efforts.
Most 400 yard passing games in a season
|
Year |
400-yard games |
|
1986 |
13 |
|
2004 |
12 |
|
2008 |
8 |
|
2002 |
8 |
|
2000 |
8 |
|
1989 |
8 |
|
1985 |
8 |
|
1984 |
8 |
|
2010 |
7 |
|
2006 |
7 |
400-yard games as a percentage of all NFL games
|
Decade |
400-yard games |
|
1960s |
0.8% |
|
1970s |
0.1% |
|
1980s |
1.5% |
|
1990s |
0.9% |
|
2000s |
1.3% |
|
2010 |
4.6% |
During the 1960s and 1990s, fewer than 1 in 100 games produced a 400-yard passing effort. During the 1980s and 2000s, we saw one a little more than once every 100 games. The 1970s, the height of the Dead Ball Era, were such an offensive wasteland that there were only five 400 yard passing games in the decade.
The lack of offense led to liberalized passing rules which spawned the Live Ball Era and an explosion of big yardage games in 1980s.
In 2010, we've seen 400 yard passers in 4.6 percent of all games. Seven 400-yard performances in five weeks is more than football saw for the entire decade of the 1970s.
Yes, the 400-yard game is bigger and rounder than ever, and we can't get enough.
The ugly side of 400
There's just one small problem with the sudden proliferation of big yardage passing: they're being produced in losses. The 400 Club here 2010 includes such stellar names as Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Donovan McNabb and Rivers (twice).
These quarterbacks are 13-9 when throwing for less than 400 yards; they're 1-6 when hitting the big, round number of 400. Rivers, in fact, has twice passed for more than 400 yards and lost. In addition to last week's 431-yard effort in the Oakland loss, he passed for 455 yards in a 27-20 Week 3 loss at Seattle.
The lone victory among the 400 club? Houston's Schaub passed for a 2010-best 497 yards in a narrow 30-27 overtime victory against the Redskins. It was the 11th most prolific passing effort in NFL history, and even then the outcome couldn't have been closer.
A change in the force
Historically, throwing for 400 yards was a pretty reliable indicator of success. But not anymore.
Starting with the Live Ball Era rule changes of 1978, which were "re-emphasized" starting in 2004, the 400-yard game became the mark of a loser.
Winning percentage of teams with a 400 yard passer
|
1960s |
0.720 |
|
1970s |
0.600 |
|
1980s |
0.531 |
|
1990s |
0.643 |
|
2000-2003 |
0.708 |
|
2004-2009 |
0.425 |
|
2010 |
0.143 |
Why the change? We're not sure. But we think it has something to do with modern football psychology. Teams simply
rely on the pass too much, and they're not even aware yet that they're harming themselves.
At least that's one theory.
In either case, we do know this: the next time your favorite quarterback starts inching up near that big, round number, he's probably heading for a loss. And if there is one thing a Troll ought to know, it's that big and round is not always beautiful.
***
Nate Dunlevy is the founder of publisher of Colts blog 18to88.com. He once called the Cold, Hard Football Facts "a flaming pile of poo." He can be reached here.
