With only two NFL weeks in the bag, it would seem premature to start drawing too many conclusions about the 2010 NFL season. However, we just spent 11 minutes playing catch with kids and need a break from all of this family time.
So, with that, we've decided to touch on a couple of topics today.
However, before we get into any of the aforementioned topics, we thought it would be a shame not to mention the highlight of the NFL weekend – Randy Moss's one handed catch.
The Texans are 2-0 despite an unprecedented statistical trend: They've given up 400 yards passing in each of their first two games.
Including this year's Texans, 22 teams have given up more than one 400-yard passing performance in a single regular season.
A few points from the list:
- Overall, these teams went 22-23 in games where they yielded 400 yards passing.
- Seven of the 22 teams made the playoffs.
- Of the seven who made the playoffs, three made the divisional round and one, the 1986 Redskins, made the conference championship.
- None of the 22 made the Super Bowl.
To top it off, the Texans have zero interceptions in 2010.
We already mentioned that the Texans were the first team to give up 400 yards in their first two games (which puts them on pace to give up 6,872 yards passing – just saying).
In fact, besides the Texans, only the 1964 Broncos, 1985 Falcons, 1996 Rams and 2004 Packers managed to give up over 400 yards passing in consecutive games. Those teams combined to go 22-39-1 in the seasons with the back to back 400 yard games.
While it's no shame to give up 400 yards passing to Peyton Manning and the Colts, remember that the Redskins, Houston's Week 2 opponent, managed 300 yards passing just twice last year and failed to break the 200-yard mark in seven games.
We know that 2010 quarterback McNabb is a bigger threat than 2009 quarterback Jason Campbell (who's already been benched in Oakland), but the rest of the offense remains largely unchanged.
Finally, the Texans were one of only four teams to win inWweek 2 despite losing the YPA battle. See more on the impact of YPA below.
One side note about the Texans-Redskins game. The last time two quarterbacks broke the 400-yard mark in a single game was in the first week of 1994 when New England's Drew Bledsoe and Miami's Dan Marino each surpassed the threshold in a 39-35 Dolphins shootout victory.
It was the first game of Bledsoe's second season and could be viewed as Drew's "coming out" game. Unfortunately, in 2001 Mo Lewis of the Jets decided to "put him back in" with a hit that ushered in the Tom Brady Era.
Jay Cutler is all grow'd up
We've been a bit rough on Chicago's Jay Cutler, our little bundle of interception-throwing joy, over the past year or so.
It's nothing personal. We just think he reminds us of a petulant child who cries until someone gives him his binky. And as a student of the Cold, Hard Football Facts School of Advanced Pigskin Parenting, you know that it's a sign of a weakness to give a crying child their binky.
But, we here at CHFF can admit when we may be wrong.
Through two games, Cutler leads the league with a 121.2 QB rating. He's also number one in the all important YPA metric, averaging 10.1 yards per pass attempt.
Of course, two games is a very small sample. But, Cutler finished the 2009 season on a high note as well. In his last four games (last two of 2009, first two of 2010) Cutler has thrown for almost 1,200 yards, 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has averaged 8.9 YPA and has had a QB rating of 118.0.
Of course, two of those games were against the Lions.
Passing YPA winners dominate
A quick update on our ongoing effort to highlighting passing yards per attempt as the most important indicator of success in sports.
Teams that have won the YPA battle have won 71.9 percent (23-9) of their games here in 2010. See table below.
| Week |
Record |
Win% |
| 1 |
11-5 |
68.8% |
| 2 |
12-4 |
75.0% |
| Total |
23-9 |
71.9% |
The graph below plots the point differential vs the YPA differential for each game. If there is a correlation,we'll see a linear pattern, with the data points arranging themselves diagonally from bottom left to top right (or, if it is a negative correlation, from top left to bottom right).
You can see that there's a pretty strong correlation between the two. (Teams in the top left and bottom right won games despite losing the YPA battle.)
Basically, the chart proves what we've been saying for years: win the passing battle, win the game; win the passing battle big, win the game big.
(Ed. note: Never let it be said that the Cold, Hard Football Facts are content to rest of their laurels. CHFF Father of the Year Luis DeLoureiro, for example, is also vying for Husband of the Year honors, as you can see from this photo of Luis D. in action on Sunday.)
