Our off-season division-by-division diagnosis of the health and welfare of each NFL team continues here with the AFC West. Also see our diagnosis of the
AFC East; the
NFC East; the
AFC North; the
NFC North; the
AFC South and the
NFC South. The NFC West will follow soon.
The AFC West looks great on paper, at least in historic terms. The Raiders were one of the great franchises in professional sports for 40 years; the Chargers are consistently exciting; the Broncos have been a marquee franchise for nearly a quarter century; and even the Chiefs have had their great moments in the sun over the years.
But the division in 2009 was pretty much a disaster. The Raiders and Chiefs were two of the worst teams in football. The Broncos muddled through their fourth straight year of shapeless mediocrity and even the Chargers disappointed after dominating the division. They went 13-3 and entered the playoffs with 11 straight wins, only to get embarrassed at home by the wildcard Jets in the divisional playoffs.
All in all, a pretty bad year for the AFC West.
Denver
The Vital Signs
2009 record: 8-8 (20.4 PPG – 20.2 PPG)
Last five seasons: 45-35 (.563)
Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Scoreability (21st)
Best game of 2009: 34-23 win at San Diego (Week 6). The Broncos found yet another way to win during their improbable 6-0 start, this time capitalizing on two Eddie Royal special teams scores – a 93-yard kick return and 71-yard punt return – to hand the struggling Chargers a home loss. Kyle Orton was almost perfectly efficient (20 of 29, 229 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT), unheralded tight end Tony Scheffler hauled in six passes for 101 yards, and the Denver defense held the Chargers to one offensive touchdown and a 2-for-12 day on third and fourth downs.
Worst game of 2009: 20-19 loss vs. Oakland (Week 15). The terrible 30-7 Week 8 loss at Baltimore that rudely ended Denver's undefeated run was more crushing. But no loss summarized the crumbling late-season woes of the Broncos better than this embarrassing home defeat at the hands of the offensively inept rival Raiders.
Denver's defense was torched for 241 yards on the ground, while the otherwise
always ineffective JaMarcus Russell came off the bench to march Oakland from his own 25 in the final minutes of the game, before throwing the game-tying TD to Chaz Schilens with just 35 seconds to play. It was about the only notable event of
Russell's otherwise fruitless three-year career. Denver, once 6-0, fell to 8-6 with the embarrassing loss.
Strength: Vibrant young leadership. Pass defense. Let's put it straight out: Josh McDaniels proved nothing last year, his first season replacing franchise icon Mike Shanahan. At the end of the day, his team posted the same exact mediocre 8-8 record as Shanahan did in his last year. Over the past four years, the Broncos are a perfectly mundane 32-32 – never better than 9-7, never worse than 7-9. They haven't scored more than 370 points, haven't scored less than 319.
However, McDaniels certainly has a flair for the bold move. Last off-season, we lamented the simmering McDaniels-Jay Cutler feud that threatened to destroy the new coach's first year. But he nipped that festering weed and seemed to win the battle over the course of the season: his team wasn't any worse with Kyle Orton at the helm, while Cutler struggled, terribly at times, in Chicago.
McDaniels also drafted high-profile running back Knowshon Moreno in the first round of the 2009 draft, when it appeared the team had so many other needs. He led the team in rushing last year.
This year, the coach let go of productive but volatile wide receiver Brandon Marshall – despite the fact that he led the team in receiving each of the past three seasons, with more than 100 catches each year. He then bucked conventional wisdom – and
reveled in the glory of the Cold, Hard Football Facts – when he snatched up college football phenom Tim Tebow with a first-round pick. It caused
instant excitement in Denver.
The team seemed to respond to McDaniels early last year, with six straight wins highlighted by the dramatic opener over the Bengals. But the team fell apart late – a trait that plagued Shanahan's teams in his later years. With all that said, we like the bold initiative of what appears to be a young man in command. We think it bodes well for the future of the Broncos.
The pass defense, meanwhile, was fairly impressive last year, as evidenced by its No. 8 ranking in
Defensive Passer Rating – always a key indicator. Opponents completed just 58.4 percent of their passes last year – quite low in this day and age. The Broncos were also among the best in football last year (fifth overall) at forcing opponents into
Negative Pass Plays (10.2%). Defensive end Elvis Dumervil, of course, played a large role, with a league-leading 17.0 sacks in 2009.
Weakness: Frustrating inefficiency on offense. Run defense. The Broncos have developed an odd institutional inefficiency on offense in recent years. It was devastatingly obvious in 2008, when Denver produced a stunning 6,330 yards of offense – second only to the Saints. That figure was also nearly 1,000 yards – yes, one thousand yards! – more than the mighty Colts of 2008.
But Denver turned that whopping yardage total into a paltry 370 points, finishing the 2008 season at
No. 28 in Scoreability. Indy, by contrast, scored 377 points with its meager 5,368 yards of offense.
It was a dreadful performance. And the team was not a whole hell of a lot better in 2009. The Broncos generated a respectable 5,463 yards of offense, but a meager 326 points, finishing the 2009 season at
No. 21 in Scoreability.
Denver must emerge from this inefficient malaise to return to contender status. In fact, the last time they fielded a top 10 team in Scoreability (No. 9, actually)
was 2005 – the year that the Broncos went 13-3 and hosted the AFC title game. So inefficiency on offense has been a huge, huge problem for this organization since it last fielded a great team. (File under: "Jake Plummer, we hardly knew ye!")
Elsewhere, the Broncos were dreadful against the run last year,
surrendering 4.50 YPA. Only six teams were worse. The Broncos could become an elite group of Defensive Hogs if they could balance their great pass rush with a great run defense.
General off-season strategy/overview: Hope the Tim Tebow and Brandon Marshall gambles pay off. The Broncos selected wide receiver Demaryius Thomas with their first draft pick in 2010. He's a supersized (6-3, 225) wide out in the Marshall mold and obviously the team expects him to replace Marshall's production someday – though rookie receivers rarely have a great impact. So we're a couple years away from finding out if the Thomas-for-Marshall gamble yields results.
The Tebow situation, meanwhile, will probably be one of the most closely followed storylines of 2010. He is truly a phenom in every sense of the word – as a player and as a marketable potential face of the franchise, assuming he pans out. Whatever the case, Tebow's presence alone will make for a very, very interesting 2010 in Denver.
Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: The Broncos flounder through another middling season as the Orton/Tebow/Brady Quinn situation at quarterback works itself out.
Kansas City
The Vital Signs
2009 record: 4-12 (18.4 PPG – 26.5 PPG)
Last five seasons: 29-51 (.363)
Best game of 2009: 27-24 win vs. Pittsburgh (Week 11). The Chiefs were dominated statistically (516 yards to 282), but dug down deep to tie game late in the fourth quarter, then win it in overtime on Ryan Succop's 22-yard field goal. Credit mistake-free football: Ben Roethlisberger outgunned Matt Cassell (398 yards and 3 TD vs. 248 and 2). But Cassel was INT-free. Pittsburgh's passer suffered two critical interceptions, as the struggling Chiefs earned a rare win against an NFL power.
Worst game of 2009: 44-13 loss vs. Denver (Week 13). The Chiefs followed up their big win over Pittsburgh by being brutally bitch-slapped by the Chargers (43-14) and Broncos in consecutive weeks. The loss to Denver at home was probably the uglier of the two.
How bad was it? The Broncos boasted two ball carriers, Correll Buckhalter (113 yards) and Knowshon Moreno (86 yards) who produced more yards on the ground than Matt Cassel did through the air (84). Cassel completed just 10 of 29 passes with 0 TD, 2 INT and a 14.6 passer rating before being pulled – this is bad, folks – for Brodie Croyle. Yes, that's right: Cassel was pulled in favor of the quarterback who's never won and NFL game (0-9). It was the lowest point in a season full of low lowly lows.
That's low.
Strength: Nothing. Seriously, this is a team that's truly good at nothing. In their BEST Quality Stat (
Defensive Passer Rating), they ranked a mere 20th. And even in that indicator the Chiefs were torched for 25 TD tosses and 7.6 YPA. Not a good trend, our fine-feathered friends in KC.
If you're looking for a bright note, the Chiefs did run the ball fairly effectively (4.39 YPA, ninth) – but that kind of production on the ground and all of the
Richie's ribs in Kansas City will earn no more than four wins when you suck at everything else.
Weakness: Passing game.
Defensive front. Matt Cassel came to Kansas City with plenty of promise after a tremendous effort with New England in 2008. But he learned pretty quickly that playing for Todd Haley and with Chris Chambers is a lot different than playing for Bill Belichick and with Randy Moss.
His completion percentage dropped more than 8 points (63.4 to 55.0); his average per attempt declined dramatically (7.2 to 5.9) and his passer rating fell like panties at a prom (89.4 to 69.9). He's got a long road ahead of him.
Meanwhile, the
Defensive Hogs have floundered like a wet, floppy ... well, flounder, since Jared Allen left what seems like a million years ago. The Chiefs finished No. 5 on our Defensive Hog Index in 2007, their last year with Allen in the line up. They instantly fell to dead last without Allen in 2008 and improved only marginally to
No. 29 in 2009. Kansas City surrendered 4.72 YPA on the ground last year. Only the pathetic Bucs (4.78 YPA) were worse).
General off-season strategy/overview: In Romeo we trust! The Chiefs recently tapped Romeo Crennel as their defensive coordinator. His career as a head coach in Cleveland was something close to a disaster (24-40 in four seasons). But his credentials as a DC are impeccable. He's won five Super Bowls as a defensive assistant, appeared in one other, and generally could be counted on to coach a defense that made its way at least to the divisional round of the playoffs. In fact, in 22 years making the Northeast circuit as a defensive assistant (Jets, Giants, Patriots) his teams reached at least the divisional round 11 times. That's batting .500 for those of you keeping score at home. It may mean nothing in Kansas City, but it's a sign of hope.
Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: Cassel leads an upswing of offense and Crennel bears immediate results on defense and the Chiefs battle for a respectable .500 season.
Celebratory ribs for everybody!
Oakland
Vital Signs
2009 record: 5-11 (12.3 PPG – 23.7 PPG)
Last five seasons: 20-60 (.250)
Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Scoreability (31st), Offensive Hog Index (31st)
Best game of 2009: 27-24 win at Pittsburgh (Week 13). Two AFC West sad-sacks enjoyed their biggest wins of the year over the defending champs – perhaps more a sign of the malaise in Pittsburgh than any tribute to the Chiefs or Raiders.
But a win in Pittsburgh is rare for most teams, let alone an offensively inept team that travels cross country to carve out a surprisingly high-scoring victory. Led by quarterback Bruce Gradkowski (20 of 33, 308 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 121.8 rating), the Raiders exploded for three touchdowns in a wild fourth quarter. The game winner, 11 yards to Louis Murphy, capped an impressive 88-yard, 107-second drive with nine ticks left on the clock. It was easily the best game of Gradkowski's career and it came at the expense of the once-proud Pittsburgh defense.
Worst game of 2009: 38-0 loss vs. N.Y Jets (Week 7). Put one of the league's worst offenses on the road against the league's stingiest defense, you get a punchless blowout defeat. But don't blame only the offense. The defense failed to show up, too: Jets Shonn Greene (144 yards) and Thomas Jones (121 yards) led the effort as New York's offense ripped the Raiders for 316 yards on the ground. The writing was on the wall that day for future former Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who was pulled after two picks and three turnovers in the first half.
Strength: Not much. The only indicator in which the Raiders finished in the top half of the league last year was in
Defensive Hog Index – and then just barely at No. 16. And
the DHI was a mixed bag, too. The Raiders were dreadful against the run (4.54 YPA, 28th), but they did do one thing well: they got off the field on third down (8th overall).
One bright spot in the otherwise dim existence of the Black Hole? The Raiders were actually better in some respects against Quality Opponents than they were against the dregs of the league. The Raiders went
3-6 against Quality Teams – only the Dolphins and Bears faced more teams with winning records (10 each). The Raiders actually scored more points in those games (13.6 PPG) than they did overall (12.3 PPG) and they played better on defense, too (23.3 PPG vs. 23.6 PPG).
As
we noted two years ago, the decline and fall of the Oakland empire has everything to do with the fact that the team has failed miserably in the single area that matters most in pro football: passing the pigskin.
When the Raiders ruled football, they also ruled the airwaves with their aggressive downfield passing game that produced big results and plenty of victories. The 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 Raiders were all among the least effective passing teams in franchise history.
In fact, the three worst have all come in recent years: the 2003 Raiders (5.74 YPA), 2006 Raiders (5.90 YPA) and 2009 Raiders (5.93 YPA). So while JaMarcus Russell has generated quite a bit of criticism from fans, media, the Cold, Hard Football Facts and the organization itself, the truth is that the institutional problems in the Oakland passing game preceded his arrival.
The decline was sharp and sudden, too: remember, in 2002, the Raiders won the AFC title while quarterback Rich Gannon was named the league's MVP. That team averaged an incredible 7.58 YPA through the air. The very next season, the Raiders fielded the worst passing team in club history.
By the way, how important is the passing game? The very best team in Raiders history was the 1976 team that went 13-1 and won the Super Bowl. It was also the best passing team in Raiders history, with a stunning average of 8.85 YPA.
Now the future of the passing game looks like it will fall onto the shoulders of former Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell, he of the career 6.6 YPA Campbells.
Bottom line: the Raiders will not improve until they develop even a respectable modern passing attack.
As if there aren't enough problems for Campbell to overcome, he'll have to work behind and offensive line that was tied with Detroit's for the title of worst in the NFL last year.
Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: Another five-win season if all goes well.
San Diego
The Vital Signs
2009 record: 13-3 (28.4 PPG – 20.0 PPG)
Last five seasons: 55-25 (.688)
Best Quality Stat in 2009: Passing Yards Per Attempt (1st)
Best game of 2009: 42-17 win at Tennessee (Week 16). The Chargers appeared juice up for the postseason after they walked into Nashville and walked out with a dominating victory over the red-hot Titans, winners of seven of their past eight games.
Philip Rivers was virtually flawless (21 of 27, 264 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) while the San Diego ground game added 166 yards and the offense converted 9 of 12 on third and fourth downs. Tennessee phenom Chris Johnson got in his numbers (21 attempts, 142 yards, 1 TD), but the Chargers D frustrated Vince Young (8 of 21, 89 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT).
You couldn't have blamed San Diego fans at this point if they booked flights to Miami after this big late-December win.
Worst game of 2009: 17-14 loss vs. N.Y. Jets (divisional playoffs). Eleven straight victories and a 13-win season (second most in franchise history) were wasted in classic San Diego fashion: with a one-and-done home playoff loss to a Jets team that exposed all the flaws in this paper tiger.
The Chargers struggled to stop the run all year: Jets rookie Shonn Greene gashed them for 128 yards, highlighted by a 53-yard backbreaker that provided the winning points in the fourth quarter. The Chargers struggled to run the ball on offense all year: Darren Sproles and the washed-up-at-30 LaDainian Tomlinson combined for just 57 yards on the ground, lowlighted by LT's 12 for 24 effort.
Strength: The passing game. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning generated all the attention last year. Brees was absolutely dominant with one of the great passing seasons in history; Manning won his fourth MVP award. But it was Philip Rivers, not Brees or Manning, who won the passing YPA battle in 2009.
Rivers averaged 7.96 PYPA using our adjusted formula that accounts for sacks. He also averaged a tremendous, league-leading 8.8 YPA using the standard formula for individuals. Rivers led the league in average per attempt in 2008, too (8.4 YPA).
The Chargers, in other words, have a Super Bowl-caliber passing game. They just need to find a way to do it in the postseason.
Weakness: Run offense. Run defense. A 50-year-old institutional tradition of falling short in the biggest games of the year.
The Chargers could not run the ball at all last year. In fact, they presented an interesting statistical dichotomy: they led the league in passing YPA, but
they were dead last in run YPA (3.33). Now that the former face of franchise LaDainian Tomlinson is gone, the run game should improve. The team obviously felt the need to feed their longtime marquee player the pigskin (223 attempts). But he produced scant results: just 3.27 YPA, though he did chalk up 12 TDs.
Even an average, ordinary, run-of-the-mill 23-year-old ball carrier in the NFL can give you 4.0 YPA. So rookie Ryan Mathews should provide a boost.
The Chargers made up for their inability to run the ball on offense by failing to stop the run on defense, too. San Diego ranked
26th on our Defensive Hog Index and were 24th against the run (4.45 YPA).
But the bigger problem in San Diego is this: year after year, for nearly the entire history of the organization, they've fielded explosive offensive teams that crumbled in the playoffs. From Sid Gillman's team of the 1960s, through the Air Coryell attack of the 1980s, to the Schottenheimer/Turner teams of the past decade, no team has consistently entertained on offense quite like the Chargers.
Yet, with the exception of the 1963 AFL title game, it's never paid off in the postseason. The club is just 10-16 all-time in the playoffs, and the recent years may have been the most frustrating. San Diego has fielded a top-five scoring offense for six straight seasons. They won a franchise-best 14 games in 2006, and then 13 games last year.
But the offense has disappeared when it mattered most, much like it did in the 1980s. They've averaged just 17.6 PPG in their five playoff defeats over the past decade, including a punchless 14 points in their one-and-done loss at home against the Jets last season.
Something just doesn't click with this organization in crunch time. It's been that way for a long time. And it needs to improve for people to take this team seriously as a Super Bowl threat.
General off-season strategy: Keep plugging along and hope that the team finally comes through one of these days in the playoffs.
Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: Another 12-win year and divisional title for the Chargers, with only the Broncos providing anything close to a threat.
