2009 record: 9-7 (24.4 PPG – 16.3 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 2-7 (19.2 – 22.7)

Last five seasons: 44-36 (.550)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Bendability (3rd)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Passing Yards Per Attempt (13th)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 2nd

Best game of 2009: 33-14 win at New England (wildcard). In one of most shocking bitch-slaps of the past several years, Ray Rice ripped off the second-longest scoring run in playoff history (83 yards) on the first play from scrimmage and the Ravens never looked back. They built a dominating 24-0 first quarter leading, put it in cruise control the rest of the way, and humiliated the mighty Patriots in Foxboro, handing New England its first home playoff loss in 31 years. More impressive? The Ravens did it on a day in which quarterback Joe Flacco completed just 4 of 10 passes for 34 yards with 0 touchdowns and 1 INT.

Worst game of 2009: 20-3 loss at Indianapolis (divisional). The Era of Good Feeling in Baltimore lasted exactly one week, as the Ravens were stymied by Indy's underrated defense and fell short of a second straight trip to the AFC title game. Baltimore produced just 12 first downs, suffered four turnovers and put only a single first-quarter field goal on the scoreboard.

Strength: Institutional defense; rare across-the-board strength. Reputations and Cold, Hard Football Facts often conflict, as loyal readers are fully aware. But in the case of Baltimore, its reputation as a defensive powerhouse is fully warranted. The Ravens have fielded a top 10 scoring defense nine times in the last 11 years; they've fielded a top 10 total defense 10 times in the last 11 years. Only the 2002 team failed to rank in the top 10 in either category.

 

The 2009 Ravens, meanwhile, ranked a superb No. 3 in both scoring and total defense. That's a great unit. And when you look at Baltimore's defense last year through our Quality Stats, it was just as impressive: No. 3 in Bendability, No. 6 in Defensive Passer Rating, No. 5 in INTs (22), No. 1 in run defense (3.43 YPA) and No. 7 in our Defensive Hog Index.

 

It's all part of a team that had few statistical weaknesses in 2009: the Ravens were No. 2 overall, as measured by average rank in our Quality Stats, behind only the Super Bowl champ Saints.

 

Weakness: Passing game. Baltimore's lone weakness is the worst one you can have, and it's the reason the team's across-the-board statistical strength resulted in a mere 9-7 record: the Ravens fielded a merely mediocre passing attack, only that yielded just 6.24 YPA using our adjusted formula that includes sacks.

 

Joe Flacco certainly improved in every indicator in his sophomore season – but the end result was just above mediocre, and marked by wild inconsistency. And the postseason results were not pretty. In Baltimore's dominating win over New England, and punchless loss to Indy, Flacco combined to complete 24 of 45 passes for 223 yards, 4.96 YPA, 0 TD, 3 INT and a 39.4 rating.

 

General off-season strategy/overview: The Anquan Boldin signing has been one of the biggest newsmakers in the offseason and a direct assault on Baltimore's most glaring statistical weakness. So that qualifies as a good move in our book. Derrick Mason had been the team's top receiver over the past five years, but he's so old (36) that he doesn't even qualify to be on his parent's medical insurance anymore. Whether Boldin can carry the load as a No. 1 wideout will be one of the more compelling, and potentially impactful, statistical stories of the 2010 season.

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: The Ravens were a fearsome statistical team in 2009, as evidenced by their No. 2 overall ranking in our Quality Stats. But the Ravens on the field were a disappointment, barely over .500. Despite the confidence that Flacco inspired as a rookie in 2008, the 2009 Ravens looked a lot like the other largely flawed teams in franchise history: a tough, championship-caliber defense paired with an offense hamstrung by a mediocre passing attack.

 

If Flacco can prove an elite passer, the sky's the limit for this team. If he proves Just Another Guy who waddles around in mediocrity, the organization will continue to face the same problems it always has. So, yes, as we so often say, it's overly simple but no less true: the future of the Ravens rests on its passing game.

 

2009 record: 10-6 (19.1 – 18.2 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 5-4 (17.4 – 22.1)

Last five seasons: 40-39-1 (.506)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Defensive Passer Rating (7th)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Passing Yards Per Attempt (20th)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 13th

 

Best game of 2009: 45-10 win vs. Chicago (Week 7). On a single afternoon, Cincy enjoyed its biggest blowout victory since whitewashing the expansion Texans in 2002, scored more points than any Bengals team since 2004, and inspired cats and dogs to join together in long overdue universal harmony. The 45-point output represented 15 percent of all the points the Bengals scored in an otherwise frustrating season of offensive inefficiency.

Worst game of 2009: 30-10 loss at Minnesota (Week 14). Carson Palmer produced just 94 yards through the air before being replaced by J.T. O'Sullivan, as the Bengals were overwhelmed by the Favrkings. BrettFavre healed lepers and helped the blind to see at halftime, according to ESPN, which limited his passing output to 192 yards. Cincinnati's otherwise strong run defense was gashed for 142 yards and two touchdowns.

Strength: Pass defense. It's amazing the Bengals made the playoffs, considering they ranked in the top 10 in just one of our Quality Stats, Defensive Passer Rating. They were No. 7 overall, allowing opposing passers to accumulate a 73.6 passer rating during the season. But even in this indicator, the Bengals failed to stand out in any single way: the 19 picks were good, but even then eight teams hauled in more INTs.

Weakness: Lackluster offense. The Bengals were a pathetic offensive team in 2009, not even as good as their No. 22 ranking in scoring offense (305 points) would lead you to believe. In fact, that anomalous 45-point outburst against the Bears skewed the numbers. The Bengals scored just 260 points in their other 15 games (17.3 PPG), and were held below 20 points in 10 of 16 regular-season contests.

 

It was an infective passing game that truly anchored down the offense throughout the year. The Bengals were in the bottom half of the league passing the ball (5.71 YPA, using our adjusted formula that includes sacks). The 24-14 playoff loss to the Jets truly summed up the team's woes: despite a great day running the football (22 attempts, 171 yards, 7.8 YPA, 1 TD), the Bengals produced just two scores, thanks largely to a bad day by Carson Palmer. He completed just 18 of 36 passes for 146 yards. Counting sacks, the Bengals netted just 110 passing yards in their one-and-done playoff appearance

General off-season strategy/overview: The Bengals clearly need to find a way to improve the passing game to build upon the encouraging 2009 season and become a true Super Bowl contender. They signed Antonio Bryant in March, but he's hardly the solution to the team's problems. He hauled in 83 passes for 1,248 yards in 2008, his first year with Tampa, but those numbers tumbled to 39 and 600 last year. You also have to wonder how much gas that Chad Ochocinco, now 32 years old, has left in the tank. The past two years were the least productive he's had since his rookie campaign. So there are plenty of holes to fill on the receiving end.

 

A bigger question, though, is if it's time to address the quarterback situation. Carson Palmer has not been an effective, first-tier quarterback since 2006. The 2009 numbers were uninspiring: 60.5 percent completions, 3,094 yards, 6.6 YPA, 21 TD, 13 INT and an 83.6 passer rating.

 

Those numbers don't get it done in this day and age of gaudy passing stats.  

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: The Bengals were a shaky-at-best division champ, a mediocre team that squeaked out a division title thanks to the self-destructive tendencies of Pittsburgh and thanks to Baltimore's own institutional question marks. They were overmatched by the 9-7 Jets in the playoffs.

 

And, not for nothing, the organization hasn't pieced together back-to-back winning seasons since 1976-77. That's 33 years without consecutive winning campaigns for those of you keeping score at home. We have little faith at this point that the Bengals can produce anything better than an 8-8 season in 2010.  

 

2009 record: 5-11 (15.3 PPG – 23.4 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 1-8 (11.4 – 24.1)

Last five seasons: 29-51 (.363)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Bendability (11th)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Passing Yards Per Attempt (32nd)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 26th

 

Best game of 2009: 13-6 win vs. Pittsburgh (Week 14). The Browns had suffered 12 straight beatings at the hands of their nemeses from Steel Town, and were limping pathetically through a 1-11 season, before finally turning the tables in early December. The Browns held the Steelers to 77 yards on the ground and built a 13-0 lead before surrendering a pair of field goals. The win proved a great confidence builder: after beating Pittsburgh, Cleveland closed out the season with three more victories to finish the year with a respectable-by-Browns-standards 5-11 record.

 

Worst game of 2009: 38-37 loss at Detroit (Week 11).  The late November battle between the 1-8 Browns and the 1-8 Lions turned into one of the most exciting games of the year. But while unexpectedly thrilling viewers, it was an unmitigated disaster for Cleveland, which was torched for 422 yards and 5 touchdown passes by Detroit rookie QB Matt Stafford, including the game-winning score on the final play. Keep in mind that Stafford had thrown just six TDs in his first seven games. Keep in mind that Cleveland wasted a four-touchdown day by Brady Quinn. Keep in mind that the Lions were just 1-25 in their previous 26 games.

 

Oh, and don't' forget that the Browns blew a 24-3 second-quarter lead.

Strength: Things gotta get better sooner or later ... don't they? The Browns did not rank in the top 10 in any single Quality Stat last year and were among the worst in the league in six of seven of them. There aren't really too many places to hang your hat of hopes here, other than the new Mike Holmgren Era and the law of averages. Sooner or later, you'd think the organization would emerge from its deep funk. The fact that the Browns exploded for 29 PPG in their final three outings, in wake of the win over Pittsburgh, offers a glimmer of hope.

Weakness: A Stone Age passing game that would make Otto Graham choke on his own vomit from the grave. The Browns averaged just 4.39 Passing Yards Per Attempt, using our formula that adjusts for sacks. That was about mediocre in 2009 for the average NFL ground game, let alone a passing attack.

 

Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson combined for just 11 TD passes all year – the same year in which Tom Brady threw a record five TD passes in a single quarter for New England. So, 11 TDs in 16 games is pretty bad. And that's why both Quinn and Anderson are gone.

 

The Browns did show some signs of offensive life late in the year, but will never do anything until they develop a NFL-quality passing game.

General off-season strategy: Settle on a quarterback and find some weapons. Holmgren looked at the numbers we just lowlighted and quickly dumped Quinn and Anderson. As of now, Jake Delhomme is the quarterback of the future – and that's not good. So Cleveland is a prime candidate to draft a quarterback No. 1. Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen might be the man – and why not, after the Brady Quinn experiment was such a success. The statistically volatile Delhomme is merely just a place holder until a young quarterback develops.

 

Once the QB decision is made, the Browns can go about rebuilding the arsenal on a team in which the leading receiver, Mohamed Massaquoi, caught just 34 passes for 624 yards and 3 TD.

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: Barring a miracle, the Browns will finish in last place once again in a division that boasts three playoff contenders.

 

2009 record: 9-7 (23.0 PPG – 20.2 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 4-3 (24.9 – 23.1)

Last five seasons: 50-30 (.625)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Passing Yards Per Attempt (7th)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Bendability, Offensive Hog Index (22nd)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 16th

Best game of 2009: 37-36 win vs. Green Bay (Week 15). The defending champs had stumbled through a disastrous five-game losing streak when they bounced back against a very good Packers team thanks to a career day from Ben Roethlisberger. He passed for a career high 503 yards, with 3 TD, including the game winner to Mike Wallace on the last play. The win revived playoff hopes for the 7-7 Steelers.

Worst game of 2009: 27-24 loss vs. Oakland (Week 13).  The Steelers lost to several bad teams in 2009, including the Browns, Chiefs and Bears. But none of those defeats were as pathetic as suffering a home loss to a truly bad (3-8) Raiders team. Oakland's immortal Bruce Gradkowski torched the once-proud Pittsburgh defense for 308 yards and 3 TDs – including a 75-yard scoring pass in the fourth quarter and an 11-yard game-winner with nine seconds to play. It was Pittsburgh's fourth straight loss after a 6-2 record in the first half of the year. Things got no better the following week, when the Steelers lost to the pathetic Browns, 13-6 (see above).

Strength: Quarterback. Big Ben's off-the-field issues have the potential to hijack his career. But, as of right now, he is easily the most important player on the team, he makes the Steelers a Super Bowl contender each time he's paired with a decent defense, and he's  fresh off the best statistical season of his career.

 

Roethlisberger in 2009 set career bests in completions (337), attempts (506), completion percentage (66.6%), yards (4,328) and INT percentage (2.4). His 100.4 passer rating was the second best of his career. And his 503-yard day against Green Bay, which ranked No. 4 in Defensive Passer Rating last year, was one of just 10 500-yard outings in NFL history. Big Ben also has a proven record of pulling out clutch plays in big games. As long as he can keep his life together off the field, he's Pittsburgh's best and most important asset.  

 

Weakness: Too many nights out on the town. Two of Pittsburgh's premier players are now engaged in legal battles after nights out on the town that apparently went bad. You already know the Big Ben story: he's accused of sexually assaulting a woman at a Georgia night club earlier this year. He's missed team workouts this week. Big Ben, of course, is already being sued over another incident in Lake Tahoe in 2008. Santonio Holmes, meanwhile, Big Ben's target during the winning play in Super Bowl XLIII, is now in trouble, too. A Florida woman filed suit this week saying that Holmes hit her with a cocktail glass at – guess what? – a night club.

 

The Steelers have a long and well-deserved reputation as a rock-solid organization and it's repeatedly put winners on the field for four decades. We don't know if its players actually did anything wrong in these off-the-field incidents. We don't really care. But we do know this: the team's players gotta get their sh*t together or it's going to cost the organization dearly both on and off the field.

General off-season strategy: Rebuild the offensive line. Put the smack down on its players before the off-the-field problems become and epidemic. Statistically speaking, the once-proud Pittsburgh offensive line is the team's biggest issue. The Steelers ranked No. 28 on our Offensive Hog Index and No. 29 running the ball (3.69 YPA) in 2008; they improved, but only slightly, in 2009, when they finished No. 22 in our Offensive Hog Index. Protecting the passer remains a huge problem.

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: The Steelers have followed each of their recent Super Bowl-winning seasons (2005, 2008) with duds: 8-8 in 2006 and 9-7 in 2009. It seems to speak to a certain institutional immaturity, players who feel good about themselves taking it down a notch in the wake of success. But generally speaking, the organization is one of the three or four strongest in the league and it still has plenty of talent. We think, at this point, that the team still has what it takes to rebound and be a Super Bowl contender in 2010.