We kickoff (out of breath already) with the AFC East.

 

2009 record: 6-10 (16.1 PPG – 20.4 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 2-6 (14.1 – 21.3)

Last five seasons: 32-48 (.400)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Defensive Passer Rating (2nd)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Offensive Hog Index (29th)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 20th

Best game of 2009: 31-14 win vs. Miami (Week 12).  The Buffalo offense struggled to get out of its own way all season. But for one brief week in late November, the Bills looked like a legit NFL team. Powered by four INTs off the hands of Miami passers, 129 yards rushing, a highlight 51-yard TD reception by Terrell Owens, and a reasonable imitation of a real NFL quarterback by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills not only beat their longtime rivals, but damaged their postseason hopes. It was a brief spark of excitement in a drab, boring season.

Worst game of 2009: 6-3 loss vs. Cleveland (Week 5). The Bills were blown out 38-10 by Miami a week earlier, but no defeat defined a frustrating season better than this abortion of an NFL game on Columbus Day weekend. Buffalo pulled off something of a statistical miracle, losing a game on a day when the opposing quarterback, Derek Anderson, completed just two passes (on 17 attempts for 23 yards with 1 INT). A muffed punt by Roscoe Parrish in the final minutes handed the Browns the ball at the Buffalo 16, leading to Billy Cundiff's game-winner.

Strength: Secondary. Rookie safety Jairus Byrd was one of the great surprises of the 2009 season, leading the league with nine INTs (four-way tie). It was a remarkable number for a team that produced a total of just 10 picks in 2008, and a big reason why the Bills improved from 17th in Defensive Passer Rating in 2008 to 2nd in 2009. That's quite a pick up for a guy taken with the 42nd pick. Do you think the Patriots are happy they grabbed Byrd's backfield mate in the Oregon secondary, Pat Chung, with the No. 34 pick? (But, hey, they traded down for him and got value, dontcha know.)

Weakness: Institutional offensive listlessness. The Bills have ranked no better than 23rd in scoring offense over the past five years. Not coincidentally, those are the five years since the team lost Drew Bledsoe, the closest thing the organization has had to a legit No. 1 NFL quarterback since the Doug Flutie Era (and you know how that era ended). It's simplistic, but no less true in the NFL, to say that the future fortunes of the organization lay with finding a top-notch quarterback. Everything else is pretty much window dressing.

General off-season strategy/overview: The Bills obviously will not pursue quarterbacks. Right now, for better or worse, their hopes lay with the young trio of Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Brian Brohm. It's still too early to give up on any of them, even if none look particularly promising.

 

So that situation obviously leaves the Bills in desperate need to attack their most obvious weakness: a debilitating offensive line. The Bills ran the ball fairly well last year (8th with an average of 4.39 YPA), but were dead last in two different indicators, Negative Pass Plays (13.35%) and third-down success (25.8%).

 

So it's all about the O Hogs in Buffalo this year. Any other move should inspire Bills fans to storm Orchard Park like an angry health-care mob (insert your side here). Not only will an improved OL be good for its own sake, it will give a fighting chance for Edwards, Fitzpatrick or even Brohm to become a legit NFL quarterback.

 

For a team with a defense not far from Super Bowl-caliber, the improved OL and the improved quarterback play it should induce will go a long way toward making Buffalo a contender once again.

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: We generally like the Bills as a 2010 wildcard darkhorse, but it's contingent on three things: they hold on to key defensive pieces like Aaron Schobel (who may retire after a 10-sack season in '09); they improve noticeably protecting the quarterback (46 sacks last year); and they get some semblance of improvement from quarterback. It's a lot of pieces to fall in place simply to become a one-and-done playoff contender.

 

2009 record: 7-9 (22.5 – 24.4 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 3-7 (22.1 – 27.2)

Last five seasons: 34-46 (.425)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Offensive Hog Index (4th)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Bendability (29th)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 19th

 

Best game of 2009: 38-10 win vs. Buffalo (Week 4).  Despite high hopes after a promising 2008 season, the Dolphins stumbled out of the gates with three straight losses in 2009. They finally pulled it together in time to manhandle the Bills in Miami. The offense put up plenty of points, but it was the defense that was most encouraging. It held Buffalo's strong ground game to 46 yards on 17 carries, while CB Vontae Davis returned an INT for a touchdown.

Worst game of 2009: 27-24 loss at Tennessee (Week 15). The Dolphins appeared to have righted the ship with back-to-back wins over the Patriots and Jaguars. They boasted a 7-6 record in mid-December and were in prime position to make a playoff run, maybe even win the division for the second year in a row. Disaster struck in overtime of Week 15. Despite a pair of Chad Henne picks, Miami rallied to score the the final 18 points in regulation and force overtime. Henne's third pick, this time by Titans safety Michael Griffin in OT, proved the difference in the game. It set up a 46-yard field goal by Rob Bironas, and sent the Dolphins into free fall. Miami lost its final three games of the year against vulnerable, mediocre teams (Tennessee, Houston, Pittsburgh).

Strength: Management. The Bill Parcells track record is well-trod territory. His ability to uncover intriguing finds over the past few years in free agency (Chad Pennington) and in the draft (Brian Hartline), his willingness to adapt to conditions of talent (the "wildcat" offense) should keep the Dolphins competitive for years to come – or at least until he quits on them a few days before the Super Bowl.

Weakness: Inconsistency/lack of identity. The Dolphins have been all over the place in recent years, defined by the 1-15 depths of 2007 and the AFC East title of 2008. You simply do not know what you're going to get year to year or game to game. The inconsistency was evident by the ups and downs of 2009, as well. Miami looked awful early in the year, looked like a contender in the middle, and then fell apart again late. There's been the statistical inconsistency, especially on defense. Over the past five years, Miami has ranked 15th, 5th, 30th, 9th and 25th in scoring D. And, finally, there's been the identity crisis on offense. The "wildcat" has proven a breath of fresh air in the No Fun League, where every team looks the same. But at the end of the day it hasn't really mattered. As we noted last season, the Dolphins, with or without the wildcat, are no different than any other team: they win when they get great play at quarterback, they lose when they don't. The Dolphins were AFC East champions in 2008 largely because Chad Pennington had a brilliant season and was one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.

General off-season strategy/overview: Pray that Ted Ginn Jr. finally lives up to the promise as an explosive offensive talent, or find another gamebreaker to lift an abysmal passing game. After the passing promise of 2008, Miami ranked 23rd in Passing Yards Per Attempt in 2009. But keep your eye on Ginn's former Ohio State teammate, Brian Hartline. The rookie receiver averaged a tremendous 16.3 yards per reception in 2009 (31 catches, 506 yards, 3 TD).

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: Third-year quarterback Chad Henne (the NFL's resident Tim Tebow critic-in-chief) looks like the quarterback of the future in Miami and showed flashes of competence in 2009, his first year as a starter. Given the brutal collection of pass defenses in the AFC East, his first year was fairly encouraging (the Jets and Bills were the top two pass defenses in the league; Bill Belichick's unit wasn't impressive, but wasn't exactly the Lions, either). If he can become the centerpiece of the offense, and the "wildcat" can be relegated to a nice little sideshow amid a polished professional passing game, the Miami offense has a chance to fight for a title in what should be a very tough AFC East in 2010.

 

2009 record: 10-6 (26.7 PPG – 17.8 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 3-4 (24.4 – 24.0)

Last five seasons: 59-21 (.738)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Bendability (4th)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Defensive Hog Index (18th)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 5th

 

Best game of 2009: 59-0 win vs. Tennessee (Week 6). For four quarters during a rare snowy day in mid-October, the Patriots looked once again like the fearsome juggernaut of 2007. Tom Brady threw six touchdowns, including a record five in the second quarter alone, as the Patriots produced the NFL's biggest blowout in 30 years. It was complete statistical domination in every sense of the word: the Patriots won the yardage battle, 619-186, the first down battle 32-9, and the turnover battle, 5-0. The Patriots had a chance to match the biggest blowout in NFL history (73-0) before laying down in the third quarter.

Worst game of 2009: 33-14 loss vs. Baltimore (wildcard). New England's playoff loss to Baltimore was not just its worst game of 2009, it was probably the team's worst performance in a decade. Ray Rice took the opening play from scrimmage 83 yards for a score – the longest TD run in playoff history. It was pretty much over from there as the Patriots wilted on both sides of the ball.  

Strength: Bill Belichick's defensive mind. Yeah, we've hammered him over the past two years – and not for the popular and meaningless methods of personal attack preferred by the "pundits." No, we've attacked him because of the defensive collapses that have come to define his teams in recent years. However, the problem seems to be a lack of talent, not his system. New England's 2009 defense was held together with pixie dust and Scotch tape. It had zero playmakers. Yet it still managed to field a fairly productive unit: they actually ranked better on defense (fifth in scoring) than they did on offense (sixth). They continued to field a classic bend-but-don't-break defense, fourth in the NFL in Bendability in 2009. The Belichick system, then, still works. What it needs are stronger cogs and sprockets to make it work better.

Weakness: Drafting. OK, here's where you can legitimately rip Belichick. New England's drafts since 2004 have been nothing short of a disaster, especially on defense. Bill Belichick and company have whiffed on one pick after another, especially in the secondary, since finding Asante Samuel in 2003. One or two rock-solid drafts, much like those that produced their championship teams early last decade, can make the Patriots contenders again. Otherwise, they're just meandering without a defensive leader.

General off-season strategy: Playmakers on defense. Playmakers on defense. Playmakers on defense. The Patriots poured tons of money into Vince Wilfork's coffers in an effort to keep the centerpiece of their defensive front happy. But he's not the sack-master on the edge or the theft-master in the backfield that the defense so desperately needs.  

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: Very tough team to peg heading into 2010. At one end of the spectrum, the Patriots have finished with the division's best record for nine straight years – no other team in NFL history can make that claim. How do you go against that kind of trend? In addition, the Patriots were actually one of the most statistically dominant teams in football last year. On the other hand, the season ended in utter disaster, while the division-rival Jets reached the AFC title game and stand as everyone's team du annee here in 2010. At this point, though, the truth is that the Patriots are actually closer to being a dominant team than the Jets. The Patriots are still vastly superior to New York on offense and at quarterback, while the Patriots are only a couple players away on defense from closing the gap between them and the league's top unit from the Jets.

 

2009 record: 9-7 (21.8 PPG – 14.8 PPG)

Record vs. Quality Opponents: 4-3 (19.6 – 13.7)

Last five seasons: 36-44 (.450)

Best Quality Stat in 2009: Defensive Passer Rating (1st)

Worst Quality Stat in 2009: Passing Yards Per Attempt (21st)

Overall Quality Stats rank: 11th

Best game of 2009: 17-14 win at San Diego (divisional playoff). All the young pieces clicked as the Jets traveled across country to put the smackdown on a team and an offense in particular that everybody considered perhaps the most talented in the league and a true Super Bowl contender. Rookie RB Shonn Greene produced 128 yards, highlighted by a 53-yard TD run; Mark Sanchez played unspectacular but mistake-free football on a day when a single pick would have meant defeat; and the young defense held San Diego to 61 yards on the ground while DBs Jim Leonhard and Darrelle Revis each snagged a pick of Philip Rivers. The win set up the Gang Green's first title game appearance in 11 years.

Worst game of 2009: 31-14 loss at New England (Week 11). In a game touted as a measure of manhood between the struggling Jets (4-5 at the time) and their young QB vs. the division-power Patriots (6-3 at the time) and their Hall of Fame QB, New York came up limp. Sanchez was awful (8 of 21, 4 picks), while Brady produced 310 yards, 1 TD and, most importantly, 0 picks against the league's stingiest pass defense. It was the third straight loss for the Jets, and it looked like Rex Ryan's Jets were just another version of the Same Old Jets.

Strength: Defense. An absolute standout unit in 2009, easily the best in the league, and evidence so far that Rex Ryan was the right man for the job – despite the fact he was, according to CHFF, one goofy f*ck. Believe it or not, the 2009 Jets were the first team in franchise history to lead the league (AFL or NFL) in scoring defense (236 points).

Weakness: Quarterback. The defense and the ground game appear solid. That means it all comes down to the quarterback, as NFL success so often does. So far, the quarterback is the weak link. Doesn't mean he will be in 2010. Just that he is at this point. There's not enough evidence to really judge which way Sanchez's career might go at this point. He had just one great game last year: his brilliantly efficient performance against the Bengals in the wildcard round; the meltdowns, meanwhile, were many, and led to defeat every time. But that scatterbrained season is nothing new for rookie quarterbacks. So we're not judging him negatively at this point. Just saying that, on a team that appears to have other key pieces in place, the QB remains the weak link/question mark until evidence proves otherwise.

General off-season strategy: Acquire a true pass rusher. The success of the Jets defense speaks for itself. The only thing the Jets didn't really do well all year was force sacks – just 32 QB takedowns all year. Linebacker Calvin Pace was the team leader with 8.  Seventeen teams, including defensive lightweights such as Cleveland and Oakland, netted more sacks. The pressure-packed Rex Ryan defensive style could become a historically elite defense with an elite pass rusher.

Totally premature 2010 diagnosis: The Jets will be the overwhelming favorite among the pigskin "pundits" to win the AFC East in 2010. We're not buying just yet. We think the Patriots, in the right circumstances, have plenty left in the tank to challenge for and still win the division crown. However, the gap certainly narrowed in 2009. We may declare the Jets the team to beat before kickoff in September. But there's a lot of off-season maneuvering still to play out, and still a formidable organization a couple hours up I-95.