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A quiet academic reflection on 2009
Cold, Hard Football Facts for March 11, 2010
The Cold, Hard Football Facts hold numbers sacred, much like our favorite academic, Professor Turguson, held history sacred.
Of course, we share other things in common, too: like a disdain for hippies smoking pot and listening to God-damn Beatles albums. But Professor Turguson said it to "Mr. Helper" much better than we can:
(Hey, last year it was crazy Joan Crawford who captured our attention during this off-season exercise. The wild-eyed screaming, the symptoms of post-Vietnam traumatic stress disorder and the coat-hanger beatings all tend to remind us so tenderly of our childhood at home.)
In any case, one reason we love numbers in general, and our Quality Stats in particular, so much is that they paint such a pretty little picture about football. Below, for example, is a chart that sizes up every NFL team based upon their performance across the board in our seven Quality Stats.
We'll be using this chart as we discuss each team's needs here in free agency and in the draft, and especially as we measure each club's off-season effort with our "Fillability Index." That's our annual effort to look at each team's off-season acquisitions and see if they made the moves needed to fill their statistical weak links from the year before.
For now, it's pretty interesting to see teams stacked up based upon their statistical profiles. Here are some highlights that we gleaned from the numbers in the chart below:
The Saints ruled the school -- New Orleans won the Super Bowl, of course. They also easily dominated our statistical indicators in 2009. They were No. 1 in three different Quality Stats and averaged a very impressive 4.6 across the board. That's pretty damn good. We were fairly confident that they'd beat the Colts in the Super Bowl, even as the pigskin "pundits" bent over backwards to crown the Colts before the game. It's easy to see the reason for our confidence when you look at the numbers below.
(Of course, we're also confident you can lose weight on the beer and Buffalo wing diet, so take that confidence for what it's worth.)
Our Quality Stats sparkled at the pigskin prom, too -- So the Super Bowl champion was the best team in football based upon our indicators. Beyond that, though, was the fact that our Quality Stats so successfully identified the playoff contenders. The top 11 teams in our indicators comprised 11 of the 12 playoff teams. That's pretty impressive. The lone playoff team that failed qualify for the top 12 in our indicators? That was Cincinnati, at No. 13 overall. They were obviously a borderline playoff team and got bounced in the wildcard round.
Watch out for San Francisco -- The 49ers have been struggling to recapture the glory of yesteryear, but made big inroads last season with an 8-8 record. It was the first time since 2002 that they won as many games as they lost. More encouragingly for San Fran fans, though, was the fact that the 49ers finished No. 12 in the league based upon across-the-board strength in our indicators.
That was the highest ranking of any non-playoff team. This bodes well for the future and tells us that they are just shy of playoff contention. A bigger concern, though, as we discussed earlier this week, is this team's inability to know what's good for it at quarterback. But we'll talk about that in more detail as the season progresses.
Detention again for Detroit and St. Louis -- Yes, the Rams earned their only victory of 2009 at Detroit. The Lions, meanwhile, managed to eke out just two victories. Nobody doubts that these were easily the worst two teams in football last year. Fittingly, they finished in an absolute dead heat at the bottom of the list in our Quality Stats. They each sucked, but at least they sucked equally and did not suck alone. When you're the Rams or Lions, sometimes that's all you got.
In the meantime, here's how your team stacked up last year across the board in our Quality Stats.
2009 Final Across-the-Board Quality Stats
|
|
|
Bend |
Score |
PYPA |
DPR |
PRD |
OHI |
DHI |
AVG |
|
1 |
NO |
9 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
15 |
4.6 |
|
2 |
Baltimore |
3 |
8 |
13 |
6 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
6.7 |
|
3 |
Green Bay |
18 |
4 |
10 |
4 |
2 |
10 |
1 |
7.0 |
|
4 |
Dallas |
1 |
25 |
5 |
16 |
9 |
3 |
8 |
9.6 |
|
5 |
NE |
4 |
12 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
18 |
9.9 |
|
6 |
Indianapolis |
5 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
5 |
8 |
30 |
10.0 |
|
7 |
Minnesota |
15 |
3 |
8 |
27 |
6 |
9 |
3 |
10.1 |
|
8 |
Philadelphia |
20 |
5 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
16 |
2 |
10.4 |
|
9 |
San Diego |
14 |
2 |
1 |
17 |
3 |
13 |
26 |
10.9 |
|
10 |
Arizona |
8 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
18 |
10 |
11.3 |
|
11 |
NYJ |
7 |
11 |
21 |
1 |
17 |
20 |
4 |
11.6 |
|
12 |
San Fran |
2 |
7 |
25 |
9 |
16 |
21 |
5 |
12.1 |
|
13t |
Cincinnati |
12 |
19 |
20 |
7 |
15 |
16 |
11 |
14.3 |
|
13t |
Houston |
16 |
16 |
3 |
14 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
14.3 |
|
15 |
Denver |
17 |
21 |
15 |
8 |
14 |
15 |
12 |
14.6 |
|
16 |
Pittsburgh |
22 |
18 |
7 |
15 |
7 |
22 |
12 |
14.7 |
|
17 |
Carolina |
13 |
22 |
22 |
5 |
19 |
14 |
9 |
14.9 |
|
18 |
Atlanta |
6 |
14 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
11 |
22 |
16.1 |
|
19 |
Miami |
29 |
13 |
23 |
19 |
23 |
4 |
5 |
16.6 |
|
20 |
Buffalo |
10 |
23 |
27 |
2 |
13 |
29 |
19 |
17.6 |
|
21 |
NYG |
32 |
9 |
9 |
29 |
20 |
12 |
17 |
18.3 |
|
22 |
Tennessee |
27 |
17 |
14 |
25 |
25 |
2 |
22 |
18.9 |
|
23 |
Washington |
21 |
29 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
27 |
14 |
20.4 |
|
24 |
Jacksonville |
23 |
28 |
18 |
30 |
22 |
4 |
28 |
21.9 |
|
25 |
Chicago |
28 |
15 |
19 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
23.4 |
|
26 |
Cleveland |
11 |
24 |
32 |
24 |
31 |
23 |
22 |
23.9 |
|
27 |
KC |
24 |
20 |
29 |
20 |
24 |
24 |
29 |
24.3 |
|
28 |
Seattle |
25 |
26 |
24 |
28 |
27 |
28 |
20 |
25.4 |
|
29 |
Oakland |
19 |
31 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
31 |
16 |
25.6 |
|
30 |
Tampa Bay |
26 |
30 |
26 |
21 |
28 |
30 |
26 |
26.7 |
|
31t |
Detroit |
31 |
27 |
28 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
31 |
30.3 |
|
31t |
St. Louis |
30 |
32 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
26 |
32 |
30.3 |
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