We know a lot of readers want us to publish all of our picks early in the week now that the NFL has kicked into Thursday night mode. But in the short weeks we're taking the games as they come. Deal with it. We have animals to shoot,
sausage to make and
turkeys to cook this time of year.
Plus, our strategy is definitely working for us. We've bested the Vegas lines in nine of 11 weeks this year and we're fresh off a monster week.
We went 12-4 straight up and 12-4 against the spread during last week's slate. Our real and spectacular picks put us at 26 games over .500 this season – a winning percentage good enough to capture a pennant in baseball, let alone declare your dominance over the wise guys. Here's our season-long performance heading into the trio of Turkey Day games:
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110-50 (.688)
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93-67 ATS (.581)
On to Thursday:
Green Bay (-9.5) at Detroit
We still don't know if injured rookie quarterback Matt Stafford will play Thursday in the wake of Week 11's
separated-shoulder heroics.
But we do know this: Green Bay-Detroit is a bad match-up for the Lions no matter who's taking the snaps on offense, Stafford or seasoned reserve Daunte Culpepper.
Sure, Detroit bested the Browns last week. But as far as we're concerned, all the Lions did is send an invitation to the rest of the league to exploit their historically inept defense: they surrendered four offensive touchdowns last week to a team that had
scored just five offensive touchdowns in its previous 15 games.
As they say in statistical circles, that's a departure from the mean.
The 2009 Lions now have a dreadful 110.3
Defensive Passer Rating, which puts them on pace to challenge for the worst pass defense in NFL history. The all-time pro football record for worst pass defense, in case you're interested in the drama,
is held by the 2008 Lions (110.8 Defensive Passer Rating).
And now comes one of the league's best passing attacks, in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay is struggling in many ways, but its pass offense is among the most prolific in the league. BrettFavre's replacement will featst on Detroit's so-called "defense."
Green Bay 33, Detroit 16
Oakland at Dallas (-13.5)
Oakland-Dallas might have been a killer Thanksgiving battle ... back in 1977.
Not so much these days. Both are teams in which we have no faith. We have no faith the Raiders can actually piece together consecutive victories over
Quality Teams. And we have no faith that the Cowboys can live up to the undue hype that always follows them as America's Team.
The Cowboys will run the ball well, but Tony Romo will find the Oakland pass defense a little more formidable than he expects. The Cowboys win easily, but not by as much as the experts expect.
Dallas 27, Oakland 17
N.Y. Giants (-6.5) at Denver
Both the Giants and Broncos charged out of the gates so confidently, both undefeated well into October and both considered serious Super Bowl contenders at Columbus Day.
The first two games are your typical Turkey Day snoozer – kind of like Uncle Jesse after six pints of pale ale and three pounds of turkey. At least the night cap between two struggling playoff contenders offers the bracing charge of a keg stand and bourbon shooter on a cold winter night. You will stand up and take notice.
The Giants are the better team. But not good enough to beat the Broncos at Mile High by more than a touchdown.
N.Y. Giants 23, Denver 20
