Real & spectacular Week 9 picks: Penn State edition Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 6, 2009
(That's Big Wally behind the wheel of the CHFF Penn State bus. The Cold, Hard Football Facts remind our readers not to drink and drive.)
The Cold, Hard Football Facts crew is heading out to State College Friday for the big Ohio State-Penn State showdown on Saturday afternoon.
So we have something of an abbreviated version of our real and spectacular weekly picks. Plus, given last week’s putrid performance, the worst in the history of the CHFF, we probably should keep things as low-key as possible. Hell, we shouldn’t even show our faces in public … let alone trek across I-80 into the heart of the Keystone State. But we still have hopes and dreams, like a stop at the Pleasure Dome in White Haven, PA.
On the bright side, we’ve had six winning weeks this year in eight opportunities. Even after last week’s performance, we're 80-36 (.690) straight up and 64-52 (.552) ATS for the year.
In the meantime, if you see the big Cold, Hard Football Facts RV on the road somewhere between Boston and State College, honk and say “hi!” Or, for those of you who followed our picks last week, throw things at us. We’ll understand.
Also, please ignore the billowing clouds of smoke and the empty beer cans flying out the back window. It’s nothing.
Washington at Atlanta (-9.5)
Did you hear what Cold, Hard Football Facts hero John Riggins said on Inside the NFL this week? He treated Redskins owner Dan Snyder much like he treated Gerald McNeal back in Super Bowl XVIII: “This person’s heart is dark,” said Riggins.
Which is encouraging in one way: we thought we were the only ones with black embers pumping away between our lungs.
On the field, it’s been a disaster for Snyder’s ‘Skins. They’re not even as good as their 2-5 record would indicate: the wins came by two points over St. Louis and three points over Washington, and both games were at home. Along the way, there have been losses to Detroit, Carolina and (at home) Kansas City.
The Falcons, meanwhile, remain a trendy 4-3 team, it's becoming apparent that they're probably just an ordinary team. They have their fair share of problems, including a group of Defensive Hogs tied with Cleveland for dead last in the NFL. Any time you’re tied with Cleveland in any category, it’s bad news.
The Redskins have played in just one double-digit game all year, last week’s 27-17 loss against the Eagles. They can probably keep it within 10 Sunday against an Atlanta team still struggling to get itself together.
Atlanta 23, Washington 17
Arizona at Chicago (-2.5)
Here’s a little history for you: Cardinals-Bears is the oldest rivalry in pro football. The two franchises first played in 1920, the first year of the NFL, when the Arizona Cardinals were the Chicago Cardinals and the Chicago Bears were the Decatur Staleys.
It’s also the most lopsided of the old NFL rivalries: the Bears hold a 55-26-6 advantage over the Cardinals.
Here in 2009, the old rivalry is neck and neck: the Cardinals are 4-3 overall and 3-0 on the road; the Bears are 4-3 overall and 3-0 at home. Arizona is 18th in Passer Rating Differential; Chicago is 20th. Chicago is 16th in Passing Yards Per Attempt; Arizona is 17th. Arizona is 13th in Defensive Passer Rating; Chicago is 15th.
That’s a lot of mediocrity. Both teams are wildly unpredictable, too. Over the last two games, the Bears have lost by 35 and won by 24; the Cardinals have beaten the Giants on the road and lost badly to the Panthers at home. Both have mistake-prone gunslingers under center: Jay Cutler and Kurt Warner have each thrown 11 picks. Only Jake Delhomme (13) has thrown more.
The one standout for either team is, believe it or not, Arizona’s Defensive Hogs. They’re No. 7 in the NFL (Chicago’s 17th), including some of the very best third-down defense in the NFL.
Look for the Cardinals to frustrate Chicago’s ground game and force Cutler into one more mistake than Warner.
Arizona 26, Chicago 23
Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati
Tough game among AFC North contenders. The Ravens recovered from their three-game slide with a dominating 30-7 win against Denver last week. Their skid included a 17-14 home loss to the Bengals back on Oct. 11. Cincinnati remains one of the big surprises of the year, with a 5-2 record overall and an impressive 4-2 mark against Quality Opponents, while their last game was a 45-10 pummeling of the Bears.
The Ravens hold two key advantages, in the passing game and in the trenches. Baltimore’s Offensive Hogs are the best in the NFL, while their storied Defensive Hogs rank No. 4 overall. The Bengals are No. 11 in each category.
Baltimore will slowly win the war of attrition in the trenches, while a big play from Joe Flacco will even up the season series.
Baltimore 27, Cincinnati 21
Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5)
This is a d*ck measuring contest for the Texans. The 5-3 record is nice, and we talked about Matt Schaub’s emergence earlier this week. But Houston’s wins have come against the Titans, Raiders, Bengals, 49ers and Bills – which is not quite the same as gunning down Combs, Meusel, Lazzeri, Ruth and Gehrig.
The Texans need to prove themselves against the iron of the league if they want to earn more time in the national discussion.
But if we’re going to talk soft schedules, we need to talk Indy. Their schedule is the softest thing we’ve seen since removing our shirts to try on new hoodies in the Auburn University bookstore.
Through Week 8, the Colts are the only team in the NFL that has faced just one Quality Opponent – a 31-10 win at Arizona back in Week 3. The slate soon stiffens – like a ... well – you know where that metaphor is going. Five of Indy’s next six games are against teams with winning records (Houston twice, New England, Baltimore, Denver).
The Colts look dominant – note their +42.8 Passer Rating Differntial – but they look dominant against bad teams.
The Colts are still kings of the AFC South until evidence proves otherwise.
But we don’t think they’re over a touchdown better than the Texans based on what we’ve seen so far this year.
Indianapolis 28, Houston 24
Kansas City at Jacksonville (-6.5)
Even people in Jacksonville aren’t interested in this game.
Jacksonville 17, Kansas City 13
Miami at New England (-10.5)
No team gums up New England’s victory machine better than the AFC East rivals. The Dolphins even bookended New England’s record 21-game regular-season win streak, pounding the Patriots 21-0 in 2006 and pasting them 38-13 in 2008, in the game that launched the Wildcat.
The Patriots have lost just 11 regular-season games since 2006 – which is slightly fewer than Detroit (44). But three of those losses have come to inferior Miami teams, while the two clubs have split the season series in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008.
The games are never close, either. No matter who’s won, each of the last six games have been decided by double-digits.
The Patriots appeared to regain their dominance over their past two games, including a phenomenal streak where they scored 80 straight points. Miami has struggled this year against good teams: 0-4 against Quality Opponents, while being outscored by nearly 10 PPG. The Dolphins have also struggled to stop the pass, surrendering 8.2 YPA through the air. Only Tampa (8.7) is worse. And here comes Tom Brady appearing to find his groove.
New England 28, Miami 20
Green Bay (-9.5) at Tampa Bay
The Packers still have one of the most prolific passing games in the NFL – despite the enormous numbers of sacks they’ve suffered (31, most in the NFL).
Aaron Rodgers actually leads the NFL in passer rating (110.4), ahead of Peyton Manning (109.3) and Drew Brees (107.6), paced his the Green Bay quarterback’s spectacular 14 TDs against just 2 INTs.
The Bucs, meanwhile, have been torched for 16 TD passes this year and are 30th in Defensive Passer Rating (102.1). They will force Rodgers into a few sacks (11th in negative pass plays), but they don’t have the horses to race with Green Bay’s offense.
Green Bay 31, Tampa Bay 14
Dallas at Philly (-2.5)
A pivotal battle in the NFC East and the Eagles hold the biggest advantages.
Both teams run very effectively, and both teams pass very effectively.
The difference comes on defense. Philly is among the league leaders in Defensive Passer Rating (68.5) and Passer Rating Differential (+26.75), while the Cowboys continue to struggle in both areas.
Philly also boasts one of the best defensive fronts in football, No. 2 in Defensive Hog Index, No. 6 against the run and No. 1 in forcing Negative Pass Plays. The Eagles should be able to contain Dallas’s potentially explosive ground game and passing game.
Philadelphia 27, Dallas 21
Carolina at New Orleans (-13.5)
Jake Delhomme throws more interceptions than any quarterback in the league (13). The Saints pick off more passes than any team in the league (16).
So this could be ugly if Carolina makes the mistake of actually attempting a pass.
We suggest that the Panthers run the ball on every play. They’ll limit their mistakes and find some success on the ground with their strong running attack going against the soft Saints run defense.
They’ll find a way to keep it closer than the experts think.
New Orleans 31, Carolina 21
Detroit at Seattle (-9.5)
The NFC has produced more bad match-ups this year than the Dating Game. This is low on the list.
The Lions suck in every single one of our Quality Stats and lost by seven at home to the Rams. The Seahawks have all kinds of question marks right now, but at least they’re a professional football team. They’ve feasted on bad teams at home, beating the Rams and Jaguars by a combined 69-0. So double digits in Seattle sounds about right.
Seattle 28, Detroit 14
San Diego at NY Giants (-3.5)
A tough game to pick: neither team inspires any kind of confidence. Both have big stars who are struggling (LT, Eli). Both have proven incapable of beating good teams.
The Chargers are 0-3 against Quality Teams, losing to Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and Denver.
But the Giants appear to be the big calamity after their third-straight loss. Known for tough defensive fronts, they’re 10th in our Defensive Hog Index and 27th against the run (4.69 YPA). Eli Manning, as we noted earlier this week, has collapsed against good competition over the past three weeks – a 54.4 passer rating against teams that are a combined 15-5.
San Diego 27, N.Y. Giants 24
Tennessee at San Francisco (-3.5)
The Battle of QB Busts goes Alex Smith’s way, thanks to Tennessee’s porous defense (108.4 Defensive Passer Rating, 31st). San Francisco, meanwhile, is number one against the run (3.25 YPA), giving them a force to counter the explosive Chris Johnson.
The 49ers have been competitive against some high-quality teams, including on the road at Indy last week.
San Francisco 24, Tennessee 17
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Denver
We’ll have our selection Monday ... or maybe before. Stay tuned!
(That's Big Wally behind the wheel of the CHFF Penn State bus. The Cold, Hard Football Facts remind our readers not to drink and drive.)
