There's one NFL statistic that's indispensable when working against the point spread – it's called Pass Defense ratings, or PDE for short.
This may come as a surprise to those purists who believe that the NFL is built on the rushing game. But, yes, how well a team defends against the pass is a huge predictor of future results (CHFF readers, of course, are
well aware of the importance of the passing game on both sides of the ball).
This PDE stat can directly influence the mind-set and subsequent betting actions of the Average Joe bettor, under the right circumstances.
The most effective way to measure the quality of a team's Pass Defense (as far as handicapping versus the point spread is concerned) is by using Yards-per-Play averages adjusted for the strength of Pass Offenses a team has faced during the season.
As an example: going into the last week of the 2006 season, Chicago ranked 2nd in the league with a PDE Rating of +0.75. This was calculated by taking Chicago's Yards-per-Pass play average on defense (4.77) and subtracting it from how well their pool of opponents passed the ball themselves (5.52 Yards-per-Pass play on offense). 5.52 - 4.77 = +0.75.
It should be noted that, whether I am calculating an offensive rating or a defensive, a positive number always indicates a team that is better than average. A negative rating indicates a team that is performing below average in the category we are looking at.
Now that I have explained the math, what are the potential uses for this stat? One particular situation where PDE shows its predictive power is when the team in question has a PDE > +0.50 and is coming off a game in which they shut down their opponents ground attack.
The public loves to bet on teams with tough pass defenses and as a result, since 1994, teams with a PDE > +0.50 are a dismal 706-789 (47.2%) ATS.
This is the first Primary condition for this particular situation. The second Primary condition is that our focus team is coming off a game in which they limited their opponent to less than 75 rushing yards.
After this stipulation is considered, the record now becomes 167-260 (39.1%) ATS – which would have meant a profit of $7,630 betting against this team with $110 wagers at 10/11 odds.
If we include another Primary condition that specifies our team in question also limited their last opponent to less than 60 total offensive plays – we end up with a brutally effective situational trend that is 73-157 (31.7%) ATS since 1994.
Teams with tough pass defenses that are coming off a strong defensive effort — especially in regards to rushing yards against — create a situation that is hard for even seasoned handicappers to ignore. How can you not like a team that appears to be impenetrable both in the air and on the ground?
Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay have fallen victim to this situation the most over the past 13 seasons with Denver and Baltimore not far behind. This particular trend is well distributed, however, as 93.8% of teams in the league have been involved at one time or another since 1994.
There are a handful of Secondary conditions that round out this situation. Teams looking to get even after a late field-goal beat them in a previous meeting are not included, as well as games where the opponent is coming in off a Straight-Up Dog win. The full details are below.
(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative — weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 18 of my 2008 NFL Game Reports Guide.)
Situational Trend Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Pass Defense Rating (PDE) > +0.50.
2) Last game Rushing Yards Against (RYA) < 75.
3) Last game Total Plays Against (TPA) < 60.
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Clutch FG Loss in Last Meeting (LM4).
2) Over Under (OU) < 44 in the Current Game.
3) Opponent not off a SU Dog win.
Situation Stats
ASMR: -0.7
Home%: 44
Dog%: 33
TDIS%: 97
WT%: 86
SPR: -2.7
Top Teams: PIT(22); BAL(16); TB(15); WAS(15); DEN(13)
Situation Record
Overall (Since '94): 40-137 ATS
2008 Season: 9-10 ATS
2007 Season: 3-10 ATS
2006 Season: 4-13 ATS
2005 Season: 0-9 ATS
2004 Season: 5-11 ATS
Last 5 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2008 WK16—WAS 10 PHI 3 (WAS +4.5) W
2008 WK14—BAL 24 WAS 10 (WAS +5.5) L
2008 WK14—PHI 20 NYG 14 (NYG -7) L
2008 WK14—TEN 28 CLE 9 (CLE +14) L
2008 WK12—PIT 27 CIN 10 (CIN +10.5) L
This week's best play
Kansas at Philadelphia (-9) – Kansas City falls under the negative influence of these Situational trends this week, meaning that a play on Philadelphia has a historical trend of great success.
