|
CHFF rains on a parade of records
Cold, Hard Football Facts for June 22, 2009
Records are, by their very definition, statistical anomalies.
They are "outliers," as the statisticians might call them: numbers that sit above (or in some cases below) the otherwise known and expected quantities.
Some records truly are historic moments – great players or great teams at their height of their powers, producing at levels above that of any other performers in history. Somebody has to be the best. Somebody has to hold the record.
But after years after studying the data, after years of examining the harsh, irrefutable reality of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, we have come to understand that numbers do not exist in a vacuum, at least not in sports. We've come to understand that, in many cases, there are extenuating circumstances that often create a perfect moment in time: a zeitpunkt, as the Germans might call it, a time when a great player or great team meets great opportunity in great and favorable circumstances.
Under these conditions, records are made.
There are often very rational reasons behind the records, beyond those of singular greatness – rule changes or sets of circumstance that set the table for great teams and great players to produce these statistical outliers.
In some cases, a change in circumstances does not set a new record, but ensures that an old record will never be challenged. Baseball offers us a classic example: in 1968, the great St. Louis pitcher Bob Gibson posted a masterful 1.12 earned run average with 13 shutouts. Both figures are records for baseball's Live Ball Era (since 1920).
Rest assured that Gibson's records are fairly secure, too, not only because of his greatness, but because of changes in circumstances. After a year of lifeless scoring – 1968 is known as "the year of the pitcher" – Major League Baseball changed the circumstances: it lowered the pitcher's mound from 15 inches high to 10 inches high. Pitchers lost this advantage, and a boom in hitting quickly followed. So Gibson in '68 represents what we're talking about here: a great player who meets favorable circumstances and establishes the statistical outlier we know as a record.
At the risk of raining on the parade of many of the greatest teams in players in pro football history, here's a look at the unique circumstances behind eight notable NFL records.
The 1950 Rams offense – 38.8 PPG
The 1950 Rams scored 466 points in 12 games, making it the most productive offense in NFL history – a full two  points per game better than the 2007 Patriots. No doubt they were an explosively talented offensive team – ends Tom Fears and Crazy Legs Hirsch catching passes, former Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis in the backfield, and not one but two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks splitting time under center: Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield (pictured here).
But the 1950 Rams also played a full one-quarter of their schedule that year – three of 12 games – against expansion teams that had played in the second-rate AAFC the year before: the 49ers (twice) and the Colts. The Rams scored 133 points in these three games (44.3 PPG), including 70 against the dreadful Colts defense, which surrendered 462 points that year (38.5 PPG), making it arguably the worst defense in history.
The Colts were so inept that the organization folded at the end of the 1950 season (the Colts re-emerged in 1953 as a "new" franchise under new ownership).
The Rams also scored 43 points against the short-lived N.Y. Yanks that year – a team which was so inept it folded at the end of the 1951 season after leaving a 9-win, 24-loss stain on the NFL record books (1949-51).
The 1950 Rams were certainly an explosively talented offensive team, but an explosively talented offensive team that faced a historically inept collection of second-rate defenses. Add the two together and you get the most productive offense in the history of the NFL.
The 1972 Dolphins – 17-0
Since the NFL instituted postseason play with its first championship game in 1933, no team has successfully negotiated an entire NFL slate without a single defeat – except for the legendary 1972 Dolphins.
What allowed the 1972 Dolphins to boldly go where no team has gone before ... or since?
Look no further than the schedule. The 1972 Dolphins faced one of the easiest slates of opponents in the history of the NFL. Their opposition that year was a combined 70-126 (.357). In addition, they faced just two teams all year that had winning records: the 8-6 Giants and the 8-6 Chiefs.
We don't have all the evidence on this yet, but we believe the 1972 Dolphins are the only team since the creation of the 14-game schedule to go an entire season without facing a single opponent who enjoyed at least nine victories.
As we like to say, Miami's 1972 schedule was so easy we wish we dated it in high school.
The Dolphins were absolutely dominant against this cushy slate of patsies. When they finally faced some tough competition in the playoffs, they eked out victories of six (Browns), four (Steelers) and seven (Redskins) points – including, to their credit, an AFC title game that unbeaten Miami had to play on the road in Pittsburgh because of the rotating system in place back then.
The 1972 Dolphins were no doubt a great team – in fact, at 17-0, they have the most indisputable claim as the best team in history. But now we know the recipe to become the only undefeated club in the championship-game era: mix one of the toughest teams in history with one of the softest schedules in history. Voila!
Peyton Manning 49 TD passes in 2004/Tom Brady 50 TD passes in 2007
Before 2004, only two players in history had thrown at least 40 TD tosses in a season: Dan Marino (48 in 1984; 44 in 1986) and Kurt Warner (41 in 1999).
But then Peyton Manning rewrote the record books in 2004, only to watch Tom Brady remake the mark just three seasons later. These two record-setting seasons so close together represent a statistical cluster and raises the obvious question:  Why the sudden surge in TD-pass records in the space of four seasons?
Well, Manning and Brady are, no doubt, extraordinarily talented passers surrounded by great teams, including Hall of Fame receivers (Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss). Great passers + great receivers + great teams = a recipe for success.
But a change in circumstances made this recipe for success a recipe for statistical outliers.
Before the 2004 season got underway, the NFL made a very public effort to "re-emphasize" the pass interference rules it had put in place in recent decades. Essentially, the league made it easier for passers to connect with receivers and harder for defenders to stop them.
Ironically, it was the 2003 AFC title game, in which New England defenders physically abused Indianapolis receivers, that caused the NFL to force this change in circumstances. And, being the great organizations that they are, the two teams that best adapted to these changed circumstances were the Colts and Patriots themselves.
Manning took full advantage in the immediate aftermath of the change in circumstances, breaking Dan Marino's 20-year-old record of 48 TD tosses with 49 TD tosses in 2004. Brady stepped forward in 2007 with 50 TD tosses.
Considering the different circumstances in which they played, however, you might argue that Y.A. Tittle's 1963 season (36 TD passes) was a greater performance. It's the NFL record for the Dead Ball Era (pre-1978) and he did it in just 14 games, and he did it without the benefit of a league-mandated effort to boost offense and minimize defense.
The 1977 Falcons defense – 9.21 PPG
A unit largely lost to history, the 1977 Falcons surrendered just 9.21 PPG, the stingiest defense in modern NFL history.
To put that mark into perspective, consider that last year's spectacular top-ranked defensive unit, the one fielded by the Super Bowl champion Steelers, surrendered 13.93 PPG.
Don't look for Atlanta's mark to be challenged anytime soon. The 1977 season marked the depths of the NFL's Dead Ball Era, a season in which:
- defenses utterly ruled the league
- defenders were given every opportunity to abuse offensive players
- league-wide scoring fell to levels not seen in three decades
To bring some offensive fireworks back to the league, the NFL adopted wholesale rule changes in 1978, spawning what we now know as the Live Ball Era.
So, like Bob Gibson's stunning 1.12 ERA of 1968, the 9.21 PPG surrendered by the 1977 Falcons will probably stand as a record for time immemorial, or until rule changes cede the advantage back to the defense.
The 2000 Ravens defense – 10.31 PPG
The famous defense of the 2000 Ravens boast the Live Ball Era record for defensive stinginess, surrendering a meager 10.31 PPG on their way to a Super Bowl championship.
 The Ravens were absolutely one of the great defenses in history, paced by future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis. Playing in a modern league that gives every advantage to the offensive unit, Balitmore was nearly impossible to score upon.
But as we now see, where there's a record, there's usually an extenuating circumstance. The Ravens certainly benefited from some favorable conditions: they played a full one-quarter of their schedule (four of 16 games) against two of the worst offenses in modern NFL history.
The division-rival Bengals went just 4-12 and scored a measly 185 points all year (11.56 PPG). But they were outdone by the division-rival Browns, who went 3-13 and scored just 161 points all year (10.06 PPG).
These two teams managed to score just 14 points in four games against the Ravens.
Sure, facing the mighty Baltimore defense made these offenses appear worse than they would have otherwise. But, conversely, facing these utterly inept offenses helped Baltimore pad the stats and set the modern NFL record for defensive stinginess.
Michael Strahan – 22.5 sacks in 2001
 Sack records are the most misleading records in football, and perhaps in all of North American sports.
After all, the NFL did not start tallying official sack records until 1983, leaving the vast bulk of NFL history out of the equation. So all sack records must be taken with a grain of salt anyway.
With that said, based on the standards we have, Strahan boasts the single-season record for sacks and it's his name etched in the history books.
But we all know how he set the record: in the last game of the 2001 season, with the Packers sporting a comfortable lead over the Giants, Green Bay quarterback (and future soap opera star) Brett Favre took a dive for his buddy, allowing Strahan to break Mark Gastineau's 1984 record of 22.0 sacks
Once again, a record was set when a great player met favorable circumstances.
The Dolphins/O.J. boom in rushing – 1972/1973
The undefeated Dolphins of 1972 were the first team in history with a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in the same backfield. Brutish Larry Csonka ripped off 1,117 yards. Lightning-quick Mercury Morris added an even 1,000.
 The following season, O.J. Simpson became the first running back with 2,000 yards in a single campaign, while his 1973 Bills set a team rushing record with 3,088 yards. That team rushing total has been surpassed just once (New England, 3,165 yards in the 16-game season of 1978). But no team has matched Buffalo's average of 220.6 YPG on the ground set in 1973.
The sets of numbers for both teams are truly remarkable when you consider that they took place in a 14-game season.
In particular, Simpson's 2,003 yards represent one of the great accomplishments in sports history when you consider the context of the era: Before Simpson in 1973, only one ball carrier in NFL history had topped 1,500 yards in a season, let alone challenge the 2,000-yard mark, and that player's name was Jim Brown. In fact, from Brown's retirement in 1965, through Simpson's 2,003-yard season of 1973, no ball carrier rushed for 1,300 yards in a season.
So 2,000 yards, by the standards of the era, was a truly remarkable number.
But what caused this sudden outburst in rushing production? Of course, it was a change in circumstances.
In 1972, the NFL moved the hash marks in toward the center of the field, changing the dynamics of offensive football. Before this change was made, offenses faced limited rushing options: they had wide open space to one side of the field, and a very slim bit of space to the other. Defenses adjusted accordingly.
But when the hash marks were moved toward the center of the field, offenses suddenly had greater options. Paul Brown disciple and coaching innovator Don Shula quickly took advantage with his undefeated 1972 Dolphins. Csonka softened up defenses up the middle, while fleet-footed Morris took advantage of the new-found space around the edges of the defense.
A year later, the gazelle-like Simpson, guided by the likes of All-Pro pulling guard Reggie McKenzie, found wide open spaces in defenses that he had never enjoyed before and raced through the gaps for his stunning 2,003 yards (and a brilliant 6.0 YPA).
Defenses eventually adjusted to the challenges created when the NFL centered the hash marks. But for two short seasons, great teams and a great individual, boosted by favorable circumstances, rewrote the NFL record books.
|
