Got this email today from CHFF reader Buddy Taylor.
“Since I was the one who clued you in with respect to the Defensive Hog Index, I thought I would mention one other fact. Not only has this indicator gone 20-2 straight up in the playoffs since its creation, it has also gone 18-4 against the spread. It has performed exactly 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in each year. Remarkable.” – Buddy
Buddy also says that he believes the DHI is 12-0 when picking underdogs against the spread. He also invites us to verify the numbers. But we’re sure if he’s wrong somebody will point it out.
Of course, the DHI is so prolific, and yet we still picked Arizona to win outright over Pittsburgh, the No. 1 team on the indicator this year, prompting other emails like this today.
“The No. 1 team in the indicator each of the past two years – the Giants and Steelers – have gone on to win each of the past two Super Bowls. And yet you clowns still picked the Cardinals to win despite the fact that the Stillers had the better Defensive Hog Index. WTF???” – Phil Latio
Yup, Phil, “clowns” sums it up just about right.
By the way, according to Taylor, these are the four games the Defensive Hog Index has missed ATS over the past two postseasons.
2008
Philadelphia (No. 2 in DHI) was 3.5 point favorites in the NFC title game over Arizona (No. 17). The Cardinals won outright.
Pittsburgh (No. 1 in DHI) was a 6.5-point favorite in the Super Bowl over Arizona. The Steelers won by four.
2007
Jacksonville (No. 12 in DHI) was a 2.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh (No. 21) in the wildcard round. The Jaguars won by two.
New England (No. 7 in DHI) was a 13.5-point favorite over Jacksonville in the divisional round. The Patriots won by 11.
